Lane Cove – NSW 2011

LIB 12.4%

Incumbent MP
Anthony Roberts, since 2003.

Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney.

History
The seat of Lane Cove first existed from 1904 to 1913. It has existed continuously since 1927. With the exception of a single election in the 1940s, it has reliably elected members of the Liberal Party and its predecessors.

The seat was held from 1930 to 1944 by Herbert FitzSimons, first a member of the Nationalists, then the United Australia Party. He retired at the 1944 election, and the seat was won by the ALP’s Henry Woodward. The election came at a time of deep division between conservative forces, and candidates stood from both the Democratic Party and the Liberal Democrats. Preference leakage allowed Woodward to win narrowly.

By 1947, the previously divided forces had united in the Liberal Party, and Woodward was defeated by Ken McCaw.

McCaw held the seat for the Liberal Party for the next 28 years. He served as Attorney-General from 1965 until his retirement in 1975.

The 1975 by-election was won by John Dowd. He served as Liberal leader from 1981 to 1983. He also served as Attorney-General from 1988 to 1991.

At the 1991 election, Lane Cove was won by Kerry Chikarovski. She served as a minister from 1992 to 1995, and as Liberal deputy leader from 1994 to 1995. She became Leader of the Opposition in 1998 and led the Coalition to a massive landslide defeat at the 1999 election.

Chikarovski was replaced as Opposition Leader in 2002, and she retired at the 2003 election.

Lane Cove has been held since 2003 by former John Howard advisor Anthony Roberts. He currently serves as Shadow Minister for Citizenship and Shadow Minister for Volunteering and the Arts.

Candidates

Political situation
Lane Cove is a safe Liberal seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Roberts LIB 21,579 52.3 +6.7
Gabrielle O’Donnell ALP 10,094 24.4 -8.7
Shauna Forrest GRN 6,059 14.7 -0.2
Kate Botting DEM 1,801 4.4 +1.6
Arie Baalbergen CDP 960 2.3 +2.1
William Ho UNI 806 2.0 -0.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anthony Roberts LIB 23,365 62.4 +9.6
Gabrielle O’Donnell ALP 14,101 37.6 -9.6

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lane Cove have been divided into four areas, based on the key suburbs of Lane Cove in the north, Gladesville in the west, Greenwich in the east, and Hunters Hill in the centre of the seat.

The Liberal margin was around 63-66% in Lane Cove, Greenwich and Hunters Hill, but was only 58% in Gladesville.

The Greens vote peaked at 20% in Greenwich, where they outpolled the Labor Party.

Polling booths in Lane Cove at the 2007 state election. Lane Cove in blue, Gladesville in yellow, Hunters Hill in green, Greenwich in orange.
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Lane Cove 16.2 63.4 11,164 27.0
Gladesville 11.6 58.2 10,783 26.1
Hunters Hill 13.2 65.7 6,316 15.3
Greenwich 20.3 65.0 4,612 11.2
Other votes 14.6 61.8 8,424 20.4
Two-party-preferred votes in Lane Cove at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Lane Cove at the 2007 state election.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Greenwich looks like the start of the belt of the lower north shore harbourside Green belt, through to Mosman, where they outpoll ALP on primaries.

  2. Well as a new Greenwich resident, this is one vote that won’t be going Green ahhhhh. I am surprised by such a high Green vote however. I think you will find many of these polling booths will be well into the 80’s for the Liberal Party this time on 2PP, particularly Hunters Hill.

  3. This seat was actually marginal going into the 2007 election, and I recall at one stage the Liberals were reportedly shifting resources into the seat due to fears they may lose it.

    The Democrat candidate was the wife of their former MLC Arthur Chesterfield-Evans. Her vote was the best result for the Democrats anywhere in NSW in either 2003 or 2007.

    Labor has finally found a candidate here, Mario Tsang.

  4. This seat went down into marginal territory in 99 & 03 (round the 3% mark as I recall but it’s current composition (esp Hunters Hill & waterfront) render this a safe Lib seat. It’s probably somewhere around it’s “real” margin atm & whilst it may blow out a little further at this poll. it will inevitably revert.

    Green vote percentages in this seat are essentially inconsequential. They are not in a position to impact the outcome.

  6. The bulk of the abolished Gladesville seat went into the re-established Ryde seat (pre 99 election). Hence John Watkins followed suit & contested Ryde.

    I see Ryde as a seat that may well switch with Govt & neither major party can take for granted. A good member of either party MAY be able to hold agst this trend …. but not against landslides. Lane Cove is, for the most part, quite different in demographics & unlikely to prove politically volatile.

  9. Lane Cove went technically marginal in 1999 when Chikarovski was leader. This is due to:
    * Hang-over from John Watkins servicing part of the electorate, and
    * ALP candidates ran on a platform blaming her as a minister in the Fahey government for not connecting the M2 to the Gore Hill Freeway (Chika’s Gap).

    Higher green vote is probably due to a lack of labor staff on the ground handing out, so Anti-Liberal vote went to greens instead.

    The ex-Gladesville parts would be allot more marginal had effort been placed in the area.

  10. Tend to concur re 99 & Chika. Similarly in 2003, Roberts was then an unknown factor & Libs still a complete rabble.

Comments are closed.