ALP 34.0%
Incumbent MP
Rubert Furolo, since 2008.
Geography
Inner southwestern Sydney. Lakemba includes central and western parts of the City of Canterbury, and a small part of the City of Hurstville. The seat covers the suburbs of Roselands, Riverwood, Punchbowl, Wiley Park, Lakemba, Belmore, Clemton Park.
History
The electoral district of Lakemba has existed continuously since 1927. In that time, it has always been won by the ALP.
Fred Stanley won the district of Lakemba in 1927. The seat was expected to be won by member for St George, George Cann, but he was expelled from the ALP after opposing Jack Lang’s efforts to centralise power in his hands. Stanley held the seat for the next two decades. In 1949 Stanley didn’t follow the ALP line in casting a vote for a vacancy in the Legislative Council, along with three other ALP MPs. The four MPs were also suspected of having taken cash bribes in exchange for their votes. He was expelled from the ALP in 1950, and lost Lakemba at the 1950 election to the official ALP candidate, Stan Wyatt.
Wyatt held the seat until 1964, when he retired. He served as party whip from 1959 to 1964.
Vince Durick held Lakemba from 1964 until 1984. Wes Davoren followed him, serving from 1984 until his retirement in 1995.
Tony Stewart won Lakemba in 1995. Stewart moved to Bankstown in 1999 to make way for Morris Iemma, whose seat of Hurstville had been abolished by the redistribution. Stewart was re-elected in Bankstown 2003 and 2007. Stewart served as a minister for two months in late 2008, but was removed after he was accused of harrassing a staff member. Stewart is retiring at the upcoming election.
Iemma had won Hurstville in 1991, when it was a highly marginal seat, and he strengthened the ALP’s position in the area. Morris Iemma was appointed to the Carr government’s ministry after the 1999 election, and he worked his way up to the position of Health Minister.
When Bob Carr retired in 2005, Morris Iemma was elected ALP leader and Premier. He won another term for the Labor government in 2007. Following that election, he embarked on plans for privatisation of the NSW electricity industry. These plans deeply divided the ALP, and resulted in Iemma clashing with the ALP state conference. Following these events, Iemma resigned as Premier in September 2008 after losing the support of key powerbrokers.
Iemma resigned from Parliament soon after, triggering a by-election in Lakemba. By-elections were also held in Ryde, Cabramatta and Port Macquarie. The Lakemba by-election was won by Canterbury mayor Robert Furolo with a 13.5% swing against the ALP. This was substantially less than the 23% swing in Ryde and the 21% swing in Cabramatta, the two worst ever results for the party in a by-election.
Candidates
- Michael Hawatt (Liberal)
- Omar Quiader (Independent)
- Sung Jae Kam (Christian Democratic Party)
- Robert Furolo(Labor)
- Linda Eisler (Greens)
Political situation
Lakemba is the safest Labor seat in New South Wales.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Morris Iemma | ALP | 31,907 | 73..9 | +9.1 |
Morris Mansour | LIB | 5,698 | 13.2 | -2.8 |
Josephine Sammut | CDP | 1,716 | 4.0 | +1.3 |
Bashir Sawalha | GRN | 1,671 | 3.9 | -3.0 |
Omar Moussa | UNI | 1,476 | 3.4 | -1.1 |
Garry Dalrymple | DEM | 473 | 1.1 | +0.9 |
Joanne Kuniansky | IND | 237 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Morris Iemma | ALP | 33,596 | 84.0 | +5.2 |
Morris Mansour | LIB | 6,415 | 16.0 | -5.2 |
2008 by-election result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Rubert Furolo | ALP | 23,004 | 58.2 | -15.6 |
Michael Hawatt | LIB | 9,354 | 23.7 | +10.5 |
Kristian Bolwell | GRN | 4,847 | 12.3 | +8.4 |
Allan Lotfizadeh | CDP | 1,292 | 3.3 | +0.5 |
Robert Aiken | IND | 564 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
Zarif Abdulla | CDP | 479 | 1.2 | +0.5 |
2008 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Robert Furolo | ALP | 24,308 | 70.5 | -13.5 |
Michael Hawatt | LIB | 10,173 | 29.5 | +13.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Lakemba have been divided into three areas: Belmore in the east, Lakemba in the centre, and Peakhurst-Riverwood in the west.
The ALP polled around 84-85% in all of those areas in 2007. The 2008 by-election saw a result of around 69-71% in all three areas.
2007 election breakdown
Voter group | GRN % | CDP % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Lakemba | 4.2 | 3.5 | 85.4 | 14,948 | 34.6 |
Peakhurst-Riverwood | 2.8 | 4.8 | 84.1 | 12,139 | 28.1 |
Belmore | 4.0 | 4.0 | 84.2 | 9,212 | 21.3 |
Other votes | 5.0 | 3.4 | 80.5 | 6,879 | 15.9 |
2008 by-election breakdown
Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Lakemba | 12.0 | 71.5 | 14,466 | 36.6 |
Peakhurst-Riverwood | 12.2 | 69.2 | 11,658 | 29.5 |
Belmore | 14.6 | 71.3 | 8,758 | 22.1 |
Other votes | 9.0 | 69.0 | 4,658 | 11.8 |
Obviously Labor will hold this, but I’d expect the margin to be closer to the by-election’s margin, as I think the 2007 margin contains a large personal support for Morris Iemma.
Amazing how safe it was even on the by-election results. Yeah Morris would’ve had an impact on the 2007 margin, but the by-election still has Labor on 20%+.
My prediction: Labor retain with roughly the same margin that was recorded at the by-election.
Michael Hawatt is a poor candidate…. in a seat that is trending to labor
Trending to Labor? The day this seat goes Liberal, HELL FREEZES OVER!
no you didn’t understand what I wrote….. just as the Sutherland shire is moving towards the Liberals
so the Lakemba electorate is moving towards Labor. I don’t mean for this election I mean as the overall
pattern over time……. Of course Lakemba is and will be a confirmed Labor seat
Ah ok, thanks for correcting me.
According to this website, also running here will be Omar Quiader as an independent backed by the Social Justice Network.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/05/3155961.htm
Gotta lol tbh.