LIB 29.0%
Incumbent MP
Barry O’Farrell, since 1999. Previously Member for Northcott 1995-1999.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Ku-ring-gai covers western parts of Ku-ring-gai local government area, and a small part of Hornsby Shire. It covers the suburbs of Wahroonga, Warrawee, Turramurra, Normanhurst, West Pymble, and parts of Gordon, Killara and Lindfield.
History
The district of Ku-ring-gai has existed since 1973, and it has always been held by the Liberal Party.
It was first won in 1973 by John Maddison. Maddison had been Member for Hornsby since 1962, and Minister for Justice since 1965. He continued serving as a minister until the government lost power in 1976. He retired in 1980.
The 1980 Ku-ring-gai by-election was won by Liberal candidate Nick Greiner. He had previously attempted unsuccessfully to win the seat of Willoughby at the 1978 election. Greiner became Liberal leader in 1983, and at the 1984 election he substantially reduced the ALP government’s majority in the Assembly.
Greiner led the Liberal-National coalition to victory with a massive landslide at the 1988 election. He won re-election in 1991, but without a majority in the Assembly. He was forced to resign in 1992 over accusations of corrupt behaviour.
Stephen O’Doherty won the 1992 Ku-ring-gai by-election for the Liberal Party. He was re-elected in 1995.
Prior to the 1999 election, the boundaries for the area were redrawn, with Ku-ring-gai moving south, and the seat of Hornsby being restored in areas previously included in Ku-ring-gai. O’Doherty moved to Hornsby, while the member for the abolished seat of Northcott, Barry O’Farrell, moved to Ku-ring-gai. O’Doherty held Hornsby until his retirement in 2002.
O’Farrell had been State Director of the NSW Liberal Party from 1992 to 1995, when he won the seat of Northcott. O’Farrell was appointed to the Opposition frontbench in 1998, and after the 1999 election he was elected Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party.
When Kerry Chikarovski was replaced as leader by John Brogden in 2002, O’Farrell was also replaced as Deputy Leader, but he was restored to the role after the 2003 election.
After Peter Debnam led the Coalition to another election defeat in 2007, O’Farrell was elected as Liberal leader. He will be leading the Liberal-National coalition into the upcoming election.
Candidates
- David Armstrong (Labor)
- Witold Wiszniewski (Christian Democratic Party)
- Barry O’Farrell (Liberal)
- Alexander Gutman (Outdoor Recreation Party)
- Susie Gemmell (Greens)
- William Bourke (Save Our State)
Political situation
Ku-ring-gai is the safest Coalition seat in New South Wales. O’Farrell will have no trouble winning re-election. The Greens fell only 24 votes short of overtaking Labor in Ku-ring-gai in 2007, and in the current environment this should mean that Ku-ring-gai will became a race between the Liberals and the Greens.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Barry O’Farrell | LIB | 27,831 | 65.6 | +7.4 |
| Adrian Macarthur-King | ALP | 5,839 | 13.8 | -7.3 |
| Susie Gemmell | GRN | 5,592 | 13.2 | +1.2 |
| Witold Wiszniewski | CDP | 1,402 | 3.3 | +0.3 |
| Jeannette Tsoulos | DEM | 1,002 | 2.4 | +0.4 |
| Michael Sun | UNI | 790 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Barry O’Farrell | LIB | 29,939 | 79.0 | +10.3 |
| Adrian Macarthur-King | ALP | 7,965 | 21.0 | -10.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ku-ring-gai have been divided into four areas. The four booths in Hornsby Shire have been grouped as Normanhurst, while those in Ku-ring-gai council area have been divided between Turramurra-Wahroonga in the north, Gordon-Pymble in the centre and Lindfield in the south.
The Liberal primary vote varied from almost 70% in Turramurra-Wahroonga, down to under 55% in Normanhurst. The ALP vote varied from 22% in Normanhurst down to 11.2% in Turramurra-Wahroonga. The Greens outpolled the ALP in Gordon-Pymble, Turramurra-Wahroonga and Lindfield.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Turramurra-Wahroonga | 69.7 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 15,894 | 37.4 |
| Gordon-Pymble | 64.6 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 6,876 | 16.2 |
| Lindfield | 65.3 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 6,182 | 14.6 |
| Normanhurst | 54.7 | 22.0 | 13.3 | 4,675 | 11.0 |
| Other votes | 64.8 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 8,829 | 20.8 |
I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor don’t bother running a candidate here.
They probably will run one, only to mop up votes for the Legislative Council.
Except if they don’t nominate a candidate, they lose $100k in potential statewide spending (under the “clever” new caps).
Interesting seat – if there is say a uniform 15% swing in NSW then it would mean Kuringai 2PP would be 90.8% to the Libs.
Presumably there is just not enough Labor/Green vote to lose on Sydney’s north shore that whatever the swing the North Shore would have to be below the State wide average. I think the North Shore exceeded the State average last time.
You won’t get a 15% swing to the Liberals here, but the Greens will outpoll the ALP on primaries in this seat. The greatest swings will be in south and south-south-western Sydney (say 20-40kms from the city). I think Labor will lose every one of them, including East Hills.
Little scope really for much upward progression in the margin. Other than the northern booths (of which only the Hornsby GHS joint booth with Hornsby has any significant ALP strength); this is little scope for the non conservative vote to drop further. This seat is essentially the conservative base of the old Ku-ring-gai seat plus the bulk of the abolished Gordon electorate. This is pure mid to upper North Shore …. it’s only when you cross the F3 where the political demographics change somewhat.
The Save Our State party are the folks who used to call themselves Save Our Suburbs.
My prediction: Liberal retain, 5-10% swing and the Greens to finish second.
How could the Libs get any kind of swing? They already got two-thirds of the primary vote, which would be close to the ceiling even with the incoming premier as candidate. They might get a few % from the vanishing Democrats and Labor, as should the Greens – I’ll tip Lib 70, Grn 15, ALP 10, others 5. Antony Green has the notional Lib vs ALP margins for North Shore and Vaucluse (they’re a few % better for the Libs), so I’d pick the Lib vs Grn 2pp here to be between 25% and 30%.
I was thinking of an incoming-Premier boost, but you are right Bird of paradox, there’s not much swing left here.
Those arguing this seat is essentially “maxed out” are correct. Where is this additional swing going to come from ? The core demographics of the bulk of the seat remain the same & whilst the boundaries were extended in the north of the seat into marginal territory west of the F3; this area already swung their way in 2007.
Labor’s candidate is David Armstrong.
And listed on Antony’s guide is Witold Wiszniewski for the CDP.
According to Warren Grzic the liberals might just have their noses in front here…..
I agree with BOP. This will end up Lib vs Greens 2PP only slightly higher than previous.
For a bit of fun, there is an outdoor rec candidate running in this seat. His name is Alexander Gutnam, more famously known as Austen Tayshus. He ran in the 2010 Federal Election in Warringah against Tony Abbott as a member of the Australian Sex Party.
I’d be interested to hear his policies on outdoor recreation. Would he make clothes mandatory? 😛
Then Mr Gutman would be happy to know the following little snippet concerning the sitting member’s first electoral office.
His first elecorate office in the mid-upper Nth Shore suburb of Gordon was situated next to the stairway to an establishment providing adult services colloquially referred to as RnT. Let us just say, local officials were encouraged to take the necessary action to avoid embarassment.
O’Farrell wouldn’t be the first MP to have had an electorate office next to adult entertainment. I’m not sure whether Paul Lynch’s office in Liverpool is very near to a brothel (two doors down, plus one in the next street 150 metres away, which is still there), but I know for sure that the brothel was there around 2008, which was the last time I looked. We all know about Nathan Rees’ office having had a brothel right above his office in Seven Hills. Paul Gibson’s office in Blacktown is near a couple of sex shops.
In all seriousness. O’Farrell will increase his already large majority here. This is pretty much the same entertainment factor as Hawkesbury: zero. Austen Tayshus might poll 5% of the vote, if he’s lucky.
Very little upward possibility here. The bulk of his electorate is as blueblood Tory as Vaucluse. The only marginal territory in Hornsby swung heavily his way in 2007. The embarassment factor for BoF was inflicted by certain elements in his party who publicised for their own reasons.