ALP 22.0%
Incumbent MP
David Campbell, since 1999.
Geography
Illawarra. Keira covers suburbs in the City of Wollongong to the immediate north of the city centre, including the suburbs of Balgownie, Corrimal, Fairy Meadow, Figtree, Keiraville, West Wollongong and Woonona.
History
The electorate of Keira has existed since 1988, and has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was won in 1988 by the ALP’s Col Markham. He served in Keira until 1999, when, facing a preselection challenge, he moved to the neighbouring seat of Wollongong, which he held for one term, losing preselection in 2003.
In 1999, Lord Mayor David Campbell, standing for the ALP, narrowly defeated independent councillor Dave Martin. Campbell was appointed to the ministry in 2003.
Campbell moved up the ministerial ranks until he took on the portfolio of Transport and Roads in 2008. In mid-2010 he resigned following a scandal involving a visit to a gay sex club in Kensington. He announced he would not run for re-election in 2011.
Candidates
- Ray Jaeger (Independent)
- Paola Harvey (Socialist Alliance)
- Ryan Park (Labor)
- George Takacs (Greens)
- John Dorahy (Liberal)
- Steven Avasalu (Christian Democratic Party)
Political situation
Keira is a very safe Labor seat. It shouldn’t be under any danger from the Liberal Party. It is the strongest part of the Illawarra for the Greens, but they won’t be a threat to Labor’s hold on the seat in 2011.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Campbell | ALP | 24,513 | 57.8 | +3.0 |
| David Moulds | LIB | 8,701 | 20.5 | +2.5 |
| Kate Brandreth | GRN | 5,469 | 12.9 | -2.7 |
| George Carfield | CDP | 2,092 | 4.9 | +0.5 |
| Marcus Aussie-Stone | IND | 924 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Maria Patakfalvy | AAFI | 680 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Campbell | ALP | 27,245 | 72.0 | -1.5 |
| David Moulds | LIB | 10,576 | 28.0 | +1.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Keira have been divided into three areas. From north to south, these are Woonona, Balgownie-Corrimal, and West Wollongong.
The ALP’s vote varied from almost 77% at the northern end of the seat to 67% in the southern end of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Balgownie-Corrimal | 12.3 | 73.0 | 16,230 | 38.3 |
| West Wollongong | 14.5 | 67.7 | 9,810 | 23.1 |
| Woonona | 13.4 | 76.7 | 8,065 | 19.0 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 71.0 | 8,274 | 19.5 |
John Dorahy is a very famous rugby league figure in these parts. I doubt he could win, but it is worth a look on election night. The Campbell scandal won’t go down well in these parts, but I suspect the Labor vote is too entrenched and its hard to see the Greens getting materially more than last time. I’ll call it for Labor, but it could be closer than people think.
Um, not quite the strongest part of the Illawarra for the Greens – that would be the area further north in the southern half of Heathcote.
Also running here is Paola Harvey for the Socialist Alliance.
In recent campaign news, Wollongong Council are reportedly cracking down on the displaying of election posters, using a council by-law which prohibits election posters being displayed more than 28 days before election day:
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/02/09/3134340.htm
Talking to a couple of people down there this week, the feeling is that this will stay with the ALP but on a much reduced margin. Campbell actually had some sympathy being expressed for him by some Greens (meaning an enhanced preference flow), but Park is a nobody. Amazes me how a 33 year old former Ministers Chief of Staff gets to be Deputy DG of a department…or maybe it doesn’t – I think Kennett might have something when he says “sack the lot”.
My prediction: Labor retain, 10-15% swing to Liberals.
This will be an interesting seat. With the ALP in trouble, a famous candidate could tip the balance
For Example in Miranda, Graham Annasley got a 8% swing to the Liberals at the last election while the rest of the state did not swing as much, so this is worth keeping an eye on
Given Dorahy’s links to the pokies & club industries, I can’t see too much harmony with the God botherers & wowsers in the Liberal ranks. A “name” candidate but parties (of all political shade) need to be wary of any baggage they may bring with them. If uncovered, their prominence can prove a double-edged sword.
Possible pick-up but realistically at the very outer edge of probablility.
John can’t win this. It could be close though.
Probably too safe for Dohary to win but he’ll take this close. Prediction: Labor retain, 20% swing.
Another candidate listed on Antony’s guide is Steven Avasalu for the CDP.
I reckon Dorahy in a boilover. The ALP is toxic here – ten years of crap train service to a population that commutes for hours a day to where the jobs are, Sydney. Also, more conservative voters moving in as house prices soar (I’m looking at YOU Bulli).
Apparently polling was done by the Illawarra Mercury for this seat – Labor’s TRAILING here. Dohary’s 52-48 apparently.
Now that’s big!
For me this is a perfect storm
A popular personality, a government who really have not done much, the mining tax and effect on the region, this could be one of the biggest swing, but might be too far
Well I have been saying that the south and south-west are in for a big fall. John is fairly cool about things, but deep down I feel this one is a bit too much. If the Libs pull this off, Labor won’t get more than 15 seats, despite the quality of John Dorahy.
The poll showing the liberals leading 52-48 is off a 400 sample size, so don’t take too much notice of it.
However the mercury also polled 4 other seats, to give a total of a 2000 sample size across the illawarra. Added together, that’s showing a 20% swing away from the ALP in those 5 seats. If true, that would make this a close contest.
“God botherers & wowsers in the Liberal ranks”
What a silly comment. It is Labor and the Greens who the greatest wowsers, after all they are the ones who want to impose a new asceticism on us by getting us to use less power, eat heathier food, stop using ‘offensive’ language, etc, etc, etc.
Ladies, gentlemen and Lawyers: far from being silly, the religious nutjobs are rife in the party of Menxies. People who can’t get their head around the idea of a separation of church and state. It’s not just the wowserism, which sh*ts me to tears as well, it’s the Protestant Taliban in four wheel drives that scare the bejeesus out of the affable tories, including the ladies who lunch. O’Farrell will have his work cut out for him keeping the AHA, Hillsong, the NSWCCI and Opus Dei happy at the same time.
Stick to Lawyering Peter, remember the Ambulance is white with flashing lights, chase that
Independent Ray Jaeger has a website at: http://www.rayjaeger4keira.com/
Libs still polling at about 52/48 on a 600 sample.
jera
Socialism and Greenism are the only religions that we have to worry about these days, and the religion of peace.
Now go back to your little dole-land and don’t bother the adults, you tosser.
A shame that Ryan Park presumably won’t get into parliament – the sort of young bloke NSW Labor needs for its rebuilding process!
The Liberal guy is just a celebrity candidate & former Rugby League star – I doubt he’ll do anything for the people of Keira over the next 4 years.