Hornsby – NSW 2011

LIB 16.5%

Incumbent MP
Judy Hopwood, since 2002.

Geography
Northern Sydney.

History
Hornsby first existed as an electoral district from 1927 to 1991. It was restored in 1999. It has always been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.

The first Member for Hornsby, James Shand, represented the seat for the Nationalist Party and then the United Australia Party from 1927 to 1941. He served as a minister from 1935 to 1938, and became an independent shortly before the 1941 election.

In 1941 Shand shifted the neighbouring seat of Ryde, holding it until his death in 1944.

In 1941, Hornsby was won by independent UAP candidate Sydney Storey, defeating the party’s official candidate. Storey joined the newly-formed Liberal Party in 1945, and held the seat until 1962, when he lost Liberal preselection and unsuccessfully ran as an independent.

John Maddison won Hornsby as a Liberal candidate in 1962. He became a minister in 1965, serving in the role until the government lost power in 1976. In 1973, a redistribution created the new seat of Ku-ring-gai, and Maddison moved to the seat. He held it until his retirement in 1980.

Neil Pickard won Hornsby in 1973. He became Minister for Education in early 1976, serving for a few months before the Coalition government lost power. He became a minister in the first term of the Greiner government from 1988 to 1991. In 1991, the seat of Hornsby was abolished at the 1991 redistribution, and Pickard retired.

Much of the former seat of Hornsby was absorbed by Ku-ring-gai, which moved north. Parts were also absorbed by Northcott. In 1991, Ku-ring-gai was held by Premier Nick Greiner, and Northcott was held by state minister Bruce Baird. Greiner retired in 1992, and the Ku-ring-gai by-election was won by Stephen O’Doherty.

Baird became Liberal Party deputy leader in 1992, serving in the role until 1994. He served as a minister until his retirement at the 1995 election. Northcott was won in 1995 by Liberal Party state director Barry O’Farrell.

The redistribution prior to the 1999 state election substantially redraw boundaries in northern Sydney. The seats of Northcott, Gordon, Eastwood, Ermington and Gladesville were all abolished, with the seats of Hornsby, Parramatta, Epping and Ryde created, and Ku-ring-gai moved substantially to the south.

O’Farrell took on the seat of Ku-ring-gai, while O’Doherty moved to the seat of Hornsby. O’Doherty retired in 2002.

The 2002 Hornsby by-election was won by Liberal candidate Judy Hopwood. She won re-election in 2003 and 2007, surviving a challenge to her preselection in 2007.

Candidates

Political situation
 Hornsby is a very safe Liberal seat, and would normally considered to be an easy seat for the Liberal Party. Nick Berman is a prominent local councillor and has previously polled strongly in local council elections. He could pose a threat to the less well-known official Liberal candidate.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Judy Hopwood LIB 23,636 52.9 +8.6
Janelle McIntosh ALP 10,201 22.8 -10.5
Catherine Turner GRN 4,714 10.5 +1.6
Leighton Thew CDP 2,067 4.6 +1.4
Mick Gallagher IND 1,389 3.1 +0.1
Fei Zhou UNI 878 2.0 +2.0
Peter Fallon DEM 676 1.5 0.0
Lyndon Shepherd AAFI 640 1.4 0.0
Ian Johnston IND 494 1.1 +1.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Judy Hopwood LIB 26,118 66.5 +12.3
Janelle McIntosh ALP 13,137 33.5 -12.3

Booth breakdown
Booths in Hornsby have been divided into four areas. Most of the seat’s population lie in the southeast of the seat, and these areas have been divided between Hornsby and Hornsby North. The remainder of the seat has been divided into Berowra in the north, and the area to the west.

The Liberal two-party vote peaked at almost 70% in the west, and 68% in Hornsby North. The lowest Liberal vote was 61.6% in Hornsby itself.

Polling booths in Hornsby at the 2007 state election. Berowra in orange, Hornsby in yellow, Hornsby North in green, West in blue.
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Hornsby 11.7 61.6 10,823 24.2
Hornsby North 10.2 68.2 10,620 23.8
West 8.9 69.9 8,454 18.9
Berowra 10.9 66.2 5,776 12.9
Other votes 10.9 67.2 9,022 20.2
Two-party-preferred votes in Hornsby at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Hornsby at the 2007 state election.

31 COMMENTS

  1. Ben, I think it would be good (if you can) to put up a map and crunch the numbers from the 2008 Council vote. Nick Berman has a public profile, Matt Kean not so much.

    The only part of the electorate that he wasn’t wildly popular for council was in the Berowra zone. The big Liberal booths to the south are also areas where Nick is admired for his time on council.

  2. Berman was elected from B Ward on Hornsby Council which extended south from the Hornsby CBD. However the redistribution prior to the 2007 election took a swathe of this area from the Hornsby seat & deposited it into Ku-ring-gai (O’Farrell’s seat).

    This seat was actually closely contested in 1999 (2.7% margin) & 2003 (3.1% margin) however the redistribution (taking in semi-rural areas west of Galston Gorge) + gross dissatisfaction with State Govt (especially trains) saw a massive swing in 2007. Arguably, this seat has already had it’s BIG swing & hasn’t much further to travel.

  3. Dirkprovin, Berman was directly elected as Mayor in 2004 and 2008 by the whole council area.

    Hornsby is also one of those areas where people actually read the local paper and engage with the civic issues of the council more than the issues of the State/Nation.

    I think the 1999 and 2003 results show how bad the Coalition did with a lot of traditional voters (eg. Miranda, Menai, Camden) in those elections, rather than highlighting the swing. The ALP will get very few votes this time, the feeling in Hornsby is even more antagonistic than in 2007.

    I think the Liberal candidate will get relatively strong support around Berowra and the former Liberal now Independant will get relatively strong support around Hornsby. How much support each gets, I don’t know.

  4. Pete,

    You ARE correct re the direct election for Mayor for the past 2 ballots ….. I was merely pointing out that this was the ward from which he was originally elected. Am sceptical about whether Berman’s status as Mayor will be of any assistance. Hornsby Council has it’s own financial “black hole” with the Hornsby Quarry site & his status as a perpetual (unsuccesful) pre-selection candidate does run against him.

    Contrary to your assumption, I am (shock horror !!) a local & have over 30 years observation of the political demographic changes of this area. During this time, it had frankly been poorly served by State MPs with the likely exception of the retiring MP Hopwood. This has impacted in it’s neglect by both parties when in power.

    Have no debate with you regarding ALP’s status here atm …. down the S bend. What I am saying is that is WHERE is the additional swing going to come from ?? I can agree that folk ARE more P’d off than 2007 but does that equate to more Coalition votes ?? By and large, NO as the vast majority of these disgruntled voted Coalition in 2007. Maybe a few more percent in primary vote but the largest source of any further ALP drop will be the drop off of minor party preferences.

    Greens, as usual, will carry their “fortress” booth on Danger Island but they aren’t overly strong in the remainder of the electorate. Whilst their primary vote may rise due to ALP “refugees”, traditionally the strongest ALP booths in the area (the central Hornsby booths) have not always been strong Green booths …. case in point Bradfield by-election.

  6. Hornsby central used to be type of subsurban fringe area that was OK for Labor. Seat was actually Labor on 1978 figures after 1980 redistribution interesting chapter in the Ernie Chaples book on Electoral Politics in NSW.

  7. Not a good election to be an Independent in a traditional Liberal seat and expect to win. The Independent could poll 2nd, but the Liberal Party will win on primaries.

  8. Hornsby is a seat that can swing quite nastily. It was a close seat in 78 & 81 and similarly in 99 & 03. These WERE partly due to statewide swing factors AND the fact that local campaigns WERE run as against “running dead”. ALP can frequently carry the central Hornsby booths. The transport corridor north is marginal Liberal territory … with some swing booths. The Greens have a “fortress” on Dangar Island in the Hawkesbury Rvr. South of Hornsby is traditionally stronger Liberal. Since the last redistribution took the seat west over Galston Gorge into semi rural Galston & Dural; this seat is far more fundementally secure for the Libs.

    Re verdict for this year. The Berman factor IS overstated. He has been a perennial “wannabe” MP/failed preselection candidate & Hornsby Council under his leadership has had it’s own issues. Kean should win comfortably & then it will a matter of seeing over time if he IS any use. Should he prove another Pickard or O’Doherty then he may cop a whack from his electorate down the line.

  9. I disagree that Nick Berman poses something of a threat to the Liberals in Hornsby. As PeteD pointed out, we locals do actually read our local paper, and many remain unimpressed with the quagmire that Hornsby Council has become under the leadership of Mr Berman. Yes, there’s the quarry, with its irksome levy to repay the burdensome debt; and now the closure of Hornsby Pool right at the beginning of summer (should have left that decision until after the election…). I also agree with dirkprovin about general dissatisfaction with local sitting MPs – lots of neglect and hot air at both State and Federal levels – and that we’re not likely to get a significant swing in 2011. As for the Greens: (the watermelon party – green on the outside, red on the inside!) – most people realise they’re disgruntled Labor supporters, so unlikely to do too well here.

  10. Stanno, yes I agree. Independent threats will be in Labor held seats, not co-alition ones. Effectively, where disillusioned ALP voters won’t vote Lib, they will be looking to support Independents in many cases instead.

    In this regard, the most likely seats to be gained by Independents will be (in no particular order) Wollongong, Newcastle, Charlestown, Maitland.

    And in the historical National seats of Port Macquarie, Tamworth and Dubbo (to a lesser extent) it is going to be very difficult for those indepedent fellows to hold their seats.

    I expect the co-alition in every single seat to improve their primary vote and therefore, it will be virtually impossible for them to lose any current co-alition held seats to Independents.

  13. You’re right about “serial candidate” with Gallagher. He actually was a good Mayor …. far superior to the bulk of his successors (yes, I’m referring to Jackie Kelly’s former friend Nicholas) however he’s became a total joke running for anything & everything.

    He has ONE shot at being elected to State Parlt at the by-election after Greiner was forced to resign in Ku-ring-gai. Had he been running in what had been (and was later re-established as) the Hornsby electorate then he would have been elected however the Ku-ring-gai section of the electorate provided sufficient ballast for the odious Stephen O’Doherty to be elected.

    Thew (the CDP candidate) is another serial candidate at both State & Federal level. The CDP may never recover any degree of respectability in this area after their running of 9 candidates in the 2009 Bradfield by-election & the disgusting innuendo contained in the literature of one of these candidates. (The eastern side of Hornsby, Waitara & Asquith now in Bradfield)

  16. Just a comment re Nick Berman’s vote in council elections. He originally stood as a “Liberal” Independent and that gave him a lot of votes. At the last election Berman once again stood as an independent but on election day his workers wore Liberal Party T shirts. hence his 68% vote.

    I for one will not be voting for Berman this time as his record as Mayor has not been that good

  18. Berman would have a good chance of winning if this wasn’t the year of the Liberal election landslide, but he’ll certainly come 2nd to Matt Kean in the overall vote.

  19. Berman will get closer to the Liberals than Labor ever could hope to.
    However, I note that when moderate Brogden led the Liberals in 2003 their vote here dropped, and when Right-backed Debnam led in 2007 their vote went up. Maybe Hornsby voters are more conservative than their affluency suggests.

  21. RDR31D,

    Hornsby Council has historically been dominated by Liberals who have gone to LG elections prouydly proclaiming their “Independence”, despite their prominence in local Liberal circles and/or involvement in pre-selection for State/Federal contests. Even, to this day some of them run together on “tickets” with authorised by persons who hold prominent branch/SEC/FEC positions. Under sufferance or questioning from the tame local media; some will grudgingly admit to being Liberal Party members.

    Warren,

    I regret to say this but this is one contest in which you know SFA …… 1. Berman MAY run second but he will be a long way behind Kean. 2. ALP ran this seat down to 2.7% in 99 (on 11+% swing) and 3.1% in 03 ….. he isn’t going to get anywhere near that close. This seat suffered a partial redistribution before 07 taking in a portion of semi rural areas west of Galston Gorge & losing parts of southern Hornsby to Ku-ring-gai. This, along with massive discontent with State Govt over transport & Hornsby Hospital, accounted for the massive swing back.

    Berman, like so many candidates of any “colour” is an individual whose ambition & self-image is vasty disproportionate to reality. Inside the party, he has burned briidges with both factions. As far as locals are attuned to local govt; he is inextricably tied to the messes than have sunk Hornsby Council during his mayoralty.

  22. Matt Kean is favourite to win at $1.07 vs. Nick Berman at $6. This seat will not even come in the picture on Saturday Night as Matt Kean will pull away on primary votes. Saturday Night will be focused on the close seats where it will go down to preferences, pre polls & postals to see who wins. These seats will include, Kogarah, Smithfield, Keira, Macquarie Fields, Wallsend, Newcastle, Blacktown, Rockdale, Balmain (fingers crossed ALP holds, no radicals needed in State Parliament), Strathfield, Maroubra, Cabramatta, East Hills, Toongabbie (Nathan Rees should retain as he is a strong hardworking representative), Marrickville (Again lets hope Carmel holds this seat, NSW does not need a radical Green in State Parliament), Granville & Cessnock (could be more on the night as I believe Labor will lose seats they least expected & win hold seats they thought they would lose)

  23. NSW needs a representative Parliament – how you could call a Parliament in which over 10% of the population do not have their first choice of party “representative” is beyond me.

    If that proportion of the population want a “radical” representative that’s fine – given what the non-radicals have done to the state a little radicalism might be just what the doctor ordered.

  25. There are radical policies, then there are socially-irresponsible policies to double up with completely irrelevant policies. I would simply carry a zero-tolerance use on any drug that doesn’t have a medicinal use in any way. It is a social evil that has destroyed the lives of many people and the rehabilitation should be done away from the “safe injecting rooms”, where we can actually work to ween people off drugs for good, not just give them a safe alternative!

    The idea of banning Israeli products in Marrickville City Council is completely un-necessary and smacks of grand-standing. Fiona’s idea of now banning all products from China would be close to economic suicide, as so many of the little things we have are actually made in China. I doubt that a boycott in a local council is going to raise hell in a country of 1 billion people!

    I don’t mind radical ideas that are thought out and can make a difference (as long as all risk can be managed in an efficient manner). But they need to be socially and economically responsible as well. We, from all side of politics, owe it to the people to ensure that we do just that! No grandstanding, just get on with the bloody job!

  27. It will be interesting to see how Nick Berman handles his defeat at the forthcoming election.

    Several questions arise.

    Will he continue on as mayor after having de facto being denied by the Hornsby electorate a far more responsible position as a member of the NSW parliament?

    If he stays on in local government will he run as a “true independent” at the next L.G. election and not use quick tricks (as he did last time) to be re-elected?

    Will he attempt to get back into the Liberal party and try more unsuccessful attempts to gain preselection, somewhere, somehow?

  28. It was “fun” during the election campaign. Burman had electronic signs out all over the electorate stating that he was “Liberal Minded”. Parked them outside the voting booths as well on election day. The signs were much larger than allowed by the legislation.

    In the end the best man won the election.

    For his efforts Nic Berman will be banned from the party for a few years – at least 5 from what I am told.

  31. Nick Berman has started his self rehabilitation with Hornsby voters by directing paid council staff to reconsider what are flood prone properties within Hornsby Shire and which are not.

    The fellow does realizes the extent of his defeat last Saturday week and will do all the necessary backflips to retain a position on Council.

    Watch for relief from the pool levy, watch for harsh words and actions against the two Green councillors and watch the sucking – up to each and every group that by-passes the now neutered “mayor’ and goes directly to Matt Kean

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