ALP 8.8%
Incumbent MP
Paul McLeay, since 2003.
Geography
Southern Sydney and the Illawarra. Heathcote includes parts of the Sutherland Shire and the City of Wollongong. Heathcote covers the suburbs of Sutherland, Woronora Heights, Engadine, Yarrawarrah, Bundeena and Heathcote, and stretches as far south as Bulli.
History
Heathcote was first created as an electoral district in 1971. The seat was abolished in 1991, and restored in 1999. In that time it has only been won by the Liberal Party once, in 1988. It has been won by the Labor Party at every other election.
Heathcote was first won in 1971 by Rex Jackson. He had previously served as Member for Bulli since 1955. The 1970 redistribution shifted Bulli north, deeper into Sutherland and losing parts of Wollongong, and following this Bulli was renamed Heathcote. Jackson joined the ministry when Labor won power in 1976, and became Minister for Corrective Services in 1981. He left the ministry in 1983 and resigned from Parliament in 1986. He was convicted of accepting bribes in relation to the early release of prisoners, and spent over three years in a prison which he had previously had ministerial responsibility for.
Jackson had run in the January 1987 by-election as an independent, but polled only 6%, losing to the ALP’s Ian McManus.
The redistribution for the 1988 election shifted Heathcote north, deeper into Sutherland and further out of Wollongong. McManus shifted to the newly-created Labor seat of Burragorang, which covered parts of Wollondilly Shire and northern suburbs of Wollongong. The Liberal Party’s Allan Andrews won Heathcote.
The 1991 redistribution reduced the size of the Assembly, and Heathcote and Burragorang were both abolished, and the seat of Bulli was restored in the northern suburbs of Wollongong. Andrews ran in the seat of Coogee, losing by 600 votes to the Labor candidate. McManus won the seat of Bulli.
McManus was re-elected in Bulli in 1995 and became a Parliamentary Secretary in the newly-elected Carr government.
The 1999 redistribution restored the seat of Heathcote, and again abolished Bulli. McManus once again was elected Member for Heathcote, and served for one final term before retiring in 2003.
Heathcote was won in 2003 by the ALP’s Paul McLeay, son of federal MP Leo McLeay. McLeay was immediately appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2003. He became a minister in 2009, but resigned in 2010 after admitting to having used parliamentary computers to access gambling and pornography websites.
Candidates
- Peter Bussa (Independent)
- Phil Smith (Greens)
- Greg Petty (Independent)
- Chris Atlee (Christian Democratic Party)
- Paul McLeay (Labor)
- Lee Evans (Liberal)
Political situation
Heathcote is the sort of seat that will be vulnerable if the Liberal Party is looking at achieving the swing that current polls suggest.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Paul McLeay | ALP | 18,377 | 43.2 | -4.2 |
Lee Evans | LIB | 13,712 | 32.2 | +2.5 |
Jill Merrin | GRN | 6,171 | 14.5 | +0.8 |
John Vanderjagt | CDP | 2,442 | 5.7 | +1.9 |
Mary Kelly | AAFI | 1,865 | 4.4 | +2.2 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Paul McLeay | ALP | 22,427 | 58.8 | -3.5 |
Lee Evans | LIB | 15,745 | 41.2 | +3.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Heathcote have been divided into five areas. Booths in the City of Wollongong have been divided between Helensburgh in the north and Bulli in the south. Booths in the Sutherland Shire have been divided into three areas: Heathcote (covering the scattered booths in Sutherland) along with Engadine and Sutherland.
The ALP won a majority of almost 70% in Bulli, and the majority gets smaller as you head north. They won 65% in Helensburgh, just under 56% in Heathcote, just under 55% in Sutherland and 52.5% in Engadine. The Greens vote varied from 7.8% in Engadine to almost 30% in Bulli.
Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Engadine | 7.8 | 52.5 | 12,654 | 29.7 |
Bulli | 29.6 | 69.5 | 7,485 | 17.6 |
Sutherland | 10.3 | 54.8 | 5,530 | 13.0 |
Heathcote | 11.6 | 55.8 | 5,078 | 11.9 |
Helensburgh | 16.5 | 65.2 | 3,959 | 9.3 |
Other votes | 14.8 | 58.8 | 7,861 | 18.5 |
This is another one the Liberals will pick up with a swing of 20-25%.
My prediction: Liberal gain, 15-20% swing.
Chris Atlee is also running here for the CDP.
I think you’ll see 20% swings in the Shire, but only 8-10% in Wollongong side.
Any hope for independent or cdp here?
The other independent here, Peter Bussa, is a former One Nation candidate.