ALP 4.9%
Incumbent MP
Marie Andrews, since 2007.
Geography
Central Coast. The seat of Gosford covers western parts of the City of Gosford and the Gosford and Woy Woy areas.
History
A district with the name ‘Gosford’ has existed since the 1950 election. Prior to that period the southern parts of the Central Coast were combined with a seat covering the Hawkesbury.
The seat was held by the Liberal Party from its creation in 1950 to 1971, when it was won by the ALP.
In 1973, the seat of Gosford was broken into the seats of Gosford and Peats. The seat of Peats is the most immediate predecessor of the current seat of Gosford.
Keith O’Connell, who had won Gosford in 1971, moved to the safer Labor seat of Peats in 1973. O’Connell held the seat until his retirement in 1984.
O’Connell was succeeded in Peats by Paul Landa. Landa had been a Labor member of the Legislative Council since 1973 and had served as a minister in the Labor government since 1976. Landa held the seat for only nine months before his death in December 1984.
The ALP’s Tony Doyle won the 1985 by-election. He was re-elected safely in 1988 and 1991, and held the seat until his death in 1994. No by-election was held due to the impending 1995 election.
In 1995, the ALP’s Marie Andrews won the seat of Peats. She won re-election in 1999 and 2003.
In the lead-up to the 2007 election, the redistribution shifted the boundaries of seats on the Central Coast, moving the centre of Gosford from the original seat of Gosford into Peats. In response the seat of Gosford was renamed ‘Terrigal’ and Peats was renamed ‘Gosford’. Andrews was elected to the newly-renamed Gosford.
Candidates
- Jake Cassar (Independent)
- Patrick Aiken (Independent)
- Ann-Marie Kitchener (Christian Democratic Party)
- Peter Freewater (Greens)
- Katie Smith (Labor)
- Chris Holstein (Liberal)
Political situation
Gosford is a very marginal Labor seat and the Liberal Party is the favourite to win the seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marie Andrews | ALP | 18,448 | 42.7 | -2.8 |
| Chris Holstein | LIB | 15,057 | 34.8 | +3.3 |
| Debra Wales | IND | 3,852 | 8.9 | +8.9 |
| Hillary Morris | GRN | 2,977 | 6.9 | +1.6 |
| George Grant | CDP | 1,241 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Robert Moulds | AAFI | 1,141 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| Bryan Ellis | SOS | 524 | 1.2 | +0.9 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Marie Andrews | ALP | 20,535 | 54.9 | -3.8 |
| Chris Holstein | LIB | 16,900 | 45.1 | +3.8 |
Booth breakdown
The seat of Gosford covers the centres of Gosford and Woy Woy, as well as sparsely-populated areas in the west of the City of Gosford. Booths have been divided between these three areas.
The ALP won almost 60% in the Woy Woy area, compared to a slim Liberal majority in Gosford, and over 57% for the Liberals in the west of the seat. An independent, Debra Wales, polled over 10% in Woy Woy, with 7-8% in the other parts of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | IND % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Woy Woy | 6.2 | 10.9 | 59.8 | 17,995 | 41.6 |
| Gosford | 7.4 | 7.7 | 49.8 | 13,673 | 31.6 |
| West | 12.0 | 7.1 | 42.7 | 1,792 | 4.1 |
| Other votes | 6.5 | 7.4 | 55.2 | 9,780 | 22.6 |
This one could be interesting as the ALP polled very well federally. I think it could go either way, but I would have the Liberals as favourites. It certainly won’t swing the 20%+ you will see in the south-western Sydney seats.
I expect this to go to the Liberal Party, however the swing will be considerably less than the uniform swing. One must remember that Chris Holstein is a former mayor and has had to make decisions that many people did not like. I have also heard that Holstein is not popular with the local Liberal members, they doubt his capacity to retain the seat beyond 2015 along with the fact that he has only been a member of the party since 2006, been an independent Mayor and Councillor beofore that.
It will be a battle for them to make gains on the peninsula, a Labor Heartland. Also note that the old division of Peats which makes up most of the new Gosford was never held by the Liberals. This is gonna be a tough nut for the Libs to crack.
My prediction: Liberal gain, 10-13% swing.
Holstein contested Peats as an Independent in 2003, gaining 18% of the primary vote. Debra Wales, the Independent candidate in 2007, had been the Liberal candidate for Peats in 2003.
Another declared candidate listed on Antony’s guide is Ann-Marie Kitchener for the CDP.
This is basically the bulk of the old seat of Peats rebadged as Gosford. This area being commuter belt, transport issues suggest that the Libs should win this time. Holding beyond 1-2 terms may be another matter. The Entrance is the most likely of the ALP held seats on the Coast to stay with the Libs.
Are there no other alternatives to these 4 candidates. None of them are worth my vote. I wish there was an SEP Candidate. I would vote them. Looks like my vote will be counted as informal…
According to the ABC the Greens candidate is ‘defying’ the party by suggesting that Gosford Council should merge with Wyong Council.
“In the Greens’ Six Point Local Government Plan, they have pledged to fight any attempt to force Council amalgamations.”
Pretty stupid policy. I remember Ben’s post ages ago about merging councils. There are clearly far too many in Sydney.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/16/3165488.htm
It’s a pretty stupid article.
The Greens policy says that all amalgamations should be subject to a referendum of local voters. I’m not sure what the “Six Point Local Government Plan” is, but the ABC article does say that it is against forced amalgamations.
Peter Freewater doesn’t seem to be proposing a forced amalgamation, simply saying they should be amalgamated. If the local councils and voters agreed to an amalgamation the Greens wouldn’t oppose that.
Whether the local Greens groups in that area support amalgamating their councils, I have no idea.
If anyone is interested, you can read the Greens’ local government plan here. It certainly opposes forced amalgamations, but there’s nothing in Greens policy opposing voluntary amalgamations.
Regarding the two independents here, Jake Cassar was also a candidate for Robertson during the federal election, whilst Patrick Aiken is apparently a campaigner for the rights of property owners impacted by coastal erosion. Haven’t seen a website for either.
Bring back the Bears!
For a seat the Liberal Party has never won before under both its names, they’d be very pleased here, they won all the booths this time.