East Hills – NSW 2011

ALP 14.1%

Incumbent MP
Alan Ashton, since 1999.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers southern parts of the City of Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra and Condell Park.

History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. In the last half-century the seat has been always held by the ALP, with only four people ever holding the seat.

The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.

Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.

East Hills has been held by Alan Ashton since 1999.

Candidates

Political situation
East Hills would normally be a safe Labor seat. It will be a challenge for the Liberals to win the seat, but it could certainly happen in 2011.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Ashton ALP 22,190 53.6 -1.6
Glenn Brookes LIB 11,352 27.4 +2.7
Stephen Chavura CDP 2,724 6.6 +2.7
Michael Tierney GRN 2,538 6.1 +0.1
Francis Dale AAFI 1,472 3.6 +2.1
Andy Truong UNI 1,109 2.7 +0.9

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Ashton ALP 23,921 64.1 -3.8
Glenn Brookes LIB 13,417 35.9 +3.8

Booth breakdown
Booths in East Hills have been divided into three areas. A small cluster of booths in the north of the seat have been grouped as “Condell Park”. Most booths lie in the south of the seat. Those booths have been divided between Padstow-Revesby in the east and Panania in the west.

The ALP’s vote varied from almost 70% in Condell Park to just over 60% in Panania. The Christian Democratic Party, who came third, got their best vote in Padstow-Revesby, while the best Greens vote was in Condell Park.

 

Polling booths in East Hills at the 2007 state election. Condell Park in green, Padstow-Revesby in blue, Panania in yellow.

 

Voter group GRN % CDP % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Padstow-Revesby 6.3 7.1 64.4 17,490 42.3
Panania 5.2 6.4 60.7 11,390 27.5
Condell Park 6.9 6.9 69.8 5,689 13.7
Other votes 6.6 5.2 64.7 6,816 16.5
Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2007 state election.

125 COMMENTS

  1. Michael Webb and Michael O’Donaghue were kicked out of the party of the DLP Federal Executive who then asked myself and some “DLP friends” to form a new DLP State Executive…

    The real dlp website is http://www.dlp.org.au

    I agree with you DB, the DLP needs to get its act together but we are being held back by Labor Rats like Michael Webb and the union movement who behave aggressively against any free thinkers and centrists and are seeking to destablise the DLP. I guess this is politics, its an example of what politics has become in this country – the smear campaigns of labor vs the obstructionist views of liberal…

  3. crazedmongoose: i am preferencing liberal because he is a pro life candidate unlike Alan Ashton…

    sorry but I belong to a party that doesnt compromise on its values… I dont see a problem with that… at least people will know what I stand for and if they like it, they will vote for me, if they dont, no one is forcing them to listen… you wont get lies and 360s from me on policy – carbon tax is a perfect example…

  4. Today the order of names was decided on the ballot paper. Its funny how everyone becomes your best friend when your name gets drawn first…

  5. I would like to mirror the posts by a few people here, especially Ben when I say enough of the DLP Propaganda. This is not the time and/or place for it. This is a site for analysis by numbers and discussion of local issues that could affect said numbers, not a place for you to engage in free advertising for your party. There is a place where you can go do that kind of spin and BS: It’s called Twitter!

    Back to this seat: I don’t need to go on about the growing Anti-Labor sentiment in this seat but O’Farrell hasn’t quite done enough to secure this seat yet. The announcement on the M5 is interesting but won’t be enough to win them over. Doing a proper job of improving the transport system through Padstow would win the seat.

  6. Condell Park shop keepers – top 5 issues (from the locals themselves):

    – Lack of parking spaces;
    – heavy trucks using Edgar Street and driving over roundabouts are causing vibrations which are damaging people’s houses;
    – poor road maintenance especially on chapel road;
    – late flights taking off from bankstown airport…
    – public transport;

    I apologise if I used this forum inappropriately, I do not have access to tax payer dollars to fund an ad campaign…

  7. Not sure there are too many East Hills voters frequenting this forum. Maybe you can approach Antoine, your esteemed Natl Secretary for some resources ?

    Have no doubt the legitimacy of these issues but let’s be frank … how many are purely State issues ? Curfew at Bankstown Airport is a Federal matter; parking is a local govt issue, arguablu local govt has input into the other listed issues apart from public transport.

  9. Hawkeye

    DB has heard polling of 25% swings to the Liberals and the ALP is no longer seen in the area of SE Sydney

  11. I’m not calling it as a win to the Coalition yet. There have been a few people on the ground asking questions about why BOF hasn’t made any major announcements. You just feel that one announcement will swing this seat a la Penrith By-Election.

  12. Ballot order for East Hills –
    1. Zalloua (Unofficial DLP)
    2. Ashton (ALP)
    3. Tony Batch (Ind)
    4. Brooks (Lib)
    5. Hurley (FF)
    6. Roberts (Greens)
    7. Falanga (CDP)

    Reasonably good draw for Alan Ashton.

  13. Hawkeye
    Posted March 11, 2011 at 8:04 AM

    Are you forgetting about the M5 extension? It is a hot issue in these parts.
    The carbon tax is another.

  14. oh…and no-one appear to have agreed to preference Ashton, although there will be at least a couple preferencing Liberal. It is a hard task for Ashton and would be an ALP coup to retain.

  15. The M5 Extension is only going to do good up to the M5 East Tunnell. You will still get the bottle-neck, just not as bad as it was before. The problem is that the entire M5 system was built on a 20 year old model (so heavily outdated) and I haven’t seen any kind of report that gives an up-to-date report on traffic usage for the M5.

    I can understand the Carbon Tax row and how it has completely destroyed KK’s promise for electricity rebates. But I haven’t seen a state poll since that announcement so I am treating this seat as being on the cusp.

  16. Hawkeye – Note Zalloua at 1 is actively preferencing Liberal apparently on his ticket, so don’t know if that will actually benefit Big Al.

  17. The DLP will have about as much relevance in this election as a fish with a bicycle. Zalloua will pick up some good ole fashion donkey voting but that is about it.

  19. With Greens not preferencing Labor and Zalloua taking some Lebanese votes in Condell Park and other areas (and also preferencing Liberals), Ashton will have a big fight on his hands… I dont think FF, CDP or Tony Batch would be preferencing Ashton either as they are conservatives…

    It wont be a surprise if Brookes wins…

  20. Samar – my understanding is that no candidate is preferencing the ALP here, however, FF, Zalloua and CDP will preference the Liberals on their How to Votes. Batch is playing mum, but will probably have the lowest primary vote in the seat.

    If the above is correct as my informants tell me, then I’d agree that it is a super bet with Brookes at $1.80 and Ashton at $1.50. Ashton won’t be able to win on primaries alone.

    Let’s not forget that this seat is basically federally overlaid by Banks and Hughes. In Banks, Melham was outpolled on primaries by the Libs (but not in East Hills seat areas) and in Hughes a number of the Georges River booths put the Liberal in front comfortably – Milperra, Panania South, Picnic Point (all major booths). I’d suggest this state government is much more on the nose than the federal government. From Ben’s above analysis, the Libs didn’t win a booth in 2007 in East Hills, but I suspect they will win all of the southern booths and certainly the western Milperra booth and will start to lose booths in Padstow and Revesby and then further north. Whether they can win enough in the south to protect them from Condell Park in the north is the question here. But, on balance, one must think that Ashton will need a decent amount of preferences to win though.

    If Ashton wins it will be because of Condell Pk and nothing else. The irony is that Condell Park is so far removed from the rest of the seat it is not funny.

  21. Nice analysis DB… my question is do you think that Condell Park votes will be vital in this election – could it come down to a 3-5% on who wins this seat?

    If some of the Lebanese and Arab population in Condell Park decide to vote Zalloua instead of Ashton it would make the job of Brookes a bit easier wont it particular because this group tends to traditionally vote Labor. Add the donkey votes and anything can happen here? Based on what I have seen Zalloua’s campaign has been 90% based in the Condell Park area.

  22. Samar – if I were Brookes, I’d be out in Padstow, Panania and Revesby shopping centres and railway stations every day from here. This is where it will be won and lost more than anything else. Brookes needs to get the support in Revesby central and Padstow central to win the seat and these are the areas I believe he can make the most inroads at this point.

    If he puts the effort in it is there for the taking.

  23. According to eddieward from the Poll Bludger, Labor have conceded all the seats in the St. George region and surrounding the Georges River.

  25. Liberals are consistently ahead in polling here and have been throughout the whole campaign. Suggest that without any preference deal here, Ashton is not looking good. I suppose Eddie thinks I am a BS artist too. Ah well. Perhaps I’m not feeding poor old Eddie my information.

  26. Boutros Zalloua was seen handing out his material at Belfield at St Margaret’s parish. There was a talk on Friday night by an exorcist and Boutros was introduced as a candidate from the DLP and his introducer, a religious lay apologist, spoke glowingly of the DLP as having the policies closest to the Church.
    In the old days, the DLP never did this.

    Wonder why Boutros went to Belfield parish?

  27. Who cares to be honest? The DLP barely have any connection with the old DLP and are essentially irrelevant for this election. The in-fighting between your so-called party and your so-called splinter group is a hardly amusing side-show

  28. Hawkeye – I agree. I wrote a response to this and a couple of others that Mr Webb posted on various seats and then my computer shut down. Anyway, Mr Webb, why can’t you respect the wishes of Ben Raue? Please desist with this diatribe rubbish. No-one cares. Boutros is still DLP to me who is preferencing the Liberals.

  29. Wait, the DLP (or at least this DLP group in NSW with Webb and Donahue) has an objective of eventually coming back to the fold? I did not know that.

    So just come back already, if that’s the case. The original groupers split due to socialism in the ALP. Anybody can tell you now that socialism is well and truly dead in the ALP. Even the Hard Left are social democratic. War’s over man, just come back to the fold.

  30. There is apparently an official and an un-official DLP still in existance. The Official DLP just got a member elected into the Senate, replacing Steve Fielding from Family First (in an equally dodgy preferencing deal).

    You are correct, Mongoose. The DLP was formed as an anti-socialist Labor Party on the musings of journalist B.A. Santamaria. They achieved their greatest representation in 1972 when they held the balance of power in the Senate (with 5 members) but they all disappeared in the 1975 double-dissolution.

    The un-official DLP is the so-called NSW branch that were dis-endorsed (hence why the NSWEC is refusing to acknowledge them). Both parties simply refuse to give up their line, even though someone though it was a good idea to revive the party. I agree that the Hard Left don’t respond to socialism (most of that is taken by the Greens anyway) but the belief is clear that they are using this forum as a means of free advertising (to which I say p^&# off) and are refusing to acknowledge their irrelevance in this election.

    The best you will do here is take 2-3% from donkey votes.

  31. I note the Liberal candidate, Glenn Brookes, was on the Alan Jones breakfast programme this morning. In recent radio surveys it has been widely acknowledged that Jones’ audience is largest in western Sydney and quite high in the LGA of Bankstown particularly. I suspect given the accolades that Jones was putting on Brookes, that it didn’t hurt his chances any.

    One of the most interesting points was that Jones said that Glenn Brookes “WILL be the new and first ever Liberal Member of Parliament for the East Hills electorate”. It wasn’t that Jones inferred that Brookes was a good chance or that he was competitive, but that emphatically, Brookesy would win easily…. He hasn’t done this with other candidates on his program. By the way, polling suggests this to be true with a 20% swing expected here.

    There is no doubt that Alan Ashton will struggle here and today’s further promotion of Brookes was not good for him.

  33. Alan Jones influence can easily be overrated – the people who listen to him are largely those who would be voting for the Coalition anyway. The ability to make a loud noise is confused with the ability to get people to change their votes.

  34. That is true Doug. It’s the same with the ABC; many people think its left-wing bias will somehow influence voters. However, the fact is that the ABC’s viewers are more often than not conservative voters who like to measur their arguments against those put forth by the leftish ABC commentators.

    I assume that Jones (nice chap in the flesh and very highly cultured) has a lot of ALP leaning listeners who shaprpen their opinions against his arguments.

  35. Someone did a study a few years ago that suggested that Jones audience size and demographics would not provide a pool of swinging voters – wish I could remember who did the study

  36. I agree with the above to an extent, but some positive publicity on background and beliefs etc is better than none.

  38. ALO – from what I am aware CDP and Zalloua are actively preferencing Brookes, and the Green and Batch are not directing preferences. Not sure about FF, but presume he will preference Lib. Will know for sure tomorrow probably.

    The major thing is that Ashton did not secure a preference deal with Greens or Independents.

  39. With those preferences, I am willing to declare this a win and with the expected swing, I think the margin the Coalition will enjoy will probably be quite healthy, probably around 5%.

    This will be one of the seats that they could well retain for the 2015 election.

  40. Green voters again need to look very carefully at what they do…… they have the choice
    If earlier postings are correct…. then the lack of Green preferences to labor may elect
    a liberal
    Maybe a vote for green is a vote for liberal

  41. I don’t think the Greens will go well here at all. This seat is somewhat similar to the Hills Area in that there is a strong religious following (albiet both Muslim and Christian). Neither groups are going to be willing to vote for the Greens.

  42. Disagree with Hawkeye’s comparison to the Hills Area. Far less overtly religious. Do agree that this is not fertile Green territory …. One Notion polled better in this area than in most parts of Sydney.

  43. One thing for usre is there will be more swings in this election than a typical Saturday Night Swingers Party!

  45. Hey Dirk Provin,

    When you typed ‘One Notion’ was that a typo or are you claiming credit for a quick and sharp quip? LOL.

    Seriously, socially conservative Labor families and many Coalition people are concerned by the high rates of immigration. Their votes need to be heard with Pauline in parliament I really think. The views of the majority on this issue should rate light years ahead of the telephone box consensus on the ABC’s Q & A for example. Pauline hits the mark compared with elite snobbery and manufactured consensus.

  46. It’s been my tag for them for many years.

    Sorry but Pauline hits no mark other than articulating a whinge …. I’ve never heard any practical solutions to any issues from her …. certainly none that can stand-up to more than a moments scrutiny.

    People do have concerns about immigration; and it’s an easy “dog-whistle” to play up in the media. Thing is migrants have always been an easy mark & there has always been “concerns” about their integration ….. staring with the postwar Mediterranean & Balkan, then the SE Asian, now it’s Middle Eastern & Islamic. And yes, every time there’s been the “they all stick together”, “they don’t speak English, criminals.

    Sorry but Pauline has had 15 sodding years to prove that she can do more than dog-whistle but she hasn’t. In the meantime, she’s proceeded to “burn” anybody who has sought to assist her/make some sort of political entity. Bruce Whiteside, John Pascquareli, David Oldfield … shall I continue ? You can claim personality clash in one case but when everyone has been burned, it’s not hard to see where the problem lies.

    All she is now is a nuisance perpetual candidate … albeit one with a public profile far larger than the run of the mill kooks who lose their deposit. In short, she is a political grifter …. a prototype Sarah Palin to to speak.

    And no, I am not a “watermelon” Greenie or ALP member or a Lib for that matter if you were seeking to pin a tag on me. As per my usual habit, I have voted “None Of The Above”

  47. I cannot find a connection between alleged ‘dog whistling’ and the views of many Australians who share Pauline’s sentiments.
    If Pauline was no threat why did she go to jail? And let’s talk about who assisted in this process, shall we.

    Australia is an overrated new kind of nation I feel because of Pauline being jailed.

  48. Agree, this is not Green country. Greens may finish 3rd based only on a CDP/FF vote split, but realistically in these parts they are a distant fourth. But this is certainly not a poor Hills country either. Voters here are religiously Christian apathetic (except in parts of the northern end), however, do hold Christian values generally. Certainly an area prime for One Nation type agendas. Historically, I think Banks polled the highest One Nation vote in NSW in 1998, basically due to the southern areas of East Hills. Most now have gone back to ALP/LNP.

    I see that Glenn Brookes is featured in one of the Liberal campaign ad’s on TV. So they are confident.

    Michael Webb’s assessment above is correct on 22/3 9.02p.

    You will also find a large support for the Brookes/Lib or Ashton/ALP in the Assembly and then Shooters/Fishing or Hanson / ONP in the Council in this seat.

  50. Hi DB

    What seats do you believe Labor will retain on Saturday? You seem to be well up to speed with trends & would be great to get a summary of the state of play please (please tell me that Nathan Rees will retain Toongabbie)

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