East Hills – NSW 2011

ALP 14.1%

Incumbent MP
Alan Ashton, since 1999.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers southern parts of the City of Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra and Condell Park.

History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. In the last half-century the seat has been always held by the ALP, with only four people ever holding the seat.

The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.

Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.

East Hills has been held by Alan Ashton since 1999.

Candidates

Political situation
East Hills would normally be a safe Labor seat. It will be a challenge for the Liberals to win the seat, but it could certainly happen in 2011.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Ashton ALP 22,190 53.6 -1.6
Glenn Brookes LIB 11,352 27.4 +2.7
Stephen Chavura CDP 2,724 6.6 +2.7
Michael Tierney GRN 2,538 6.1 +0.1
Francis Dale AAFI 1,472 3.6 +2.1
Andy Truong UNI 1,109 2.7 +0.9

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Ashton ALP 23,921 64.1 -3.8
Glenn Brookes LIB 13,417 35.9 +3.8

Booth breakdown
Booths in East Hills have been divided into three areas. A small cluster of booths in the north of the seat have been grouped as “Condell Park”. Most booths lie in the south of the seat. Those booths have been divided between Padstow-Revesby in the east and Panania in the west.

The ALP’s vote varied from almost 70% in Condell Park to just over 60% in Panania. The Christian Democratic Party, who came third, got their best vote in Padstow-Revesby, while the best Greens vote was in Condell Park.

 

Polling booths in East Hills at the 2007 state election. Condell Park in green, Padstow-Revesby in blue, Panania in yellow.

 

Voter group GRN % CDP % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Padstow-Revesby 6.3 7.1 64.4 17,490 42.3
Panania 5.2 6.4 60.7 11,390 27.5
Condell Park 6.9 6.9 69.8 5,689 13.7
Other votes 6.6 5.2 64.7 6,816 16.5
Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2007 state election.

125 COMMENTS

  1. From what I gather this is a much more “Anglo” area than the suburbs surrounding it, plus there’s also some nice areas along the Georges River.

    Going on federal results in Banks, the Labor margin looks highly inflated so there’s a chance of the Liberals picking it up in a landslide year like 2011.

  2. As a man with local-ish experience, my old electorate (Oatley) has the more richer areas than East Hills. The seat has never gone close to being won by Liberal, whereas Oatley/Georges River has been won by the Liberals heaps of times.

    Having said that, reckon it could still fall in a year like this. And it probably is less ethnic than other seats.

  4. I grew up in this area but I don’t live there now. I spent 25 years here. Much of the area is now in Hughes as well as Banks from a federal overlay.

    I went to school in the area and my parents still live in the area and I know it well from a number of angles, including politically. I know Alan Ashton as he used to be my school teacher. He is genuinely a nice bloke and I always got on well with him, however, from a political view he is not the sharpest tool in the shed.

    Condell Park is the main problem for the Liberals to make it a certainty (least anglo), but even allowing for that, I reckon the Libs will win it comfortably. Labor is so on the nose in this type of area. This is a-typical of the 25% swings that you will see in areas such as these.

    The federal election was just the start. People thought Hughes would be difficult for the Liberals given that Dana Vale was retiring, however, they increased their margin. In Banks, Delezio (LNP) outpolled Melham (ALP) on primary and probably could have won the seat if he had people on all of the polling booths (he didn’t in Riverwood and Narwee) and that includes areas like Narwee, Riverwood and Punchbowl!

    MDMConnell is correct. It is mainly an older anglo area, however, younger aspirationals are coming in by the truck load and this will be a longer term problem for the ALP in seats such as East Hills for decades to come. Older fibros are being demolished in favour of new brick houses and villas etc. They are swinging voters but swinging conservative voters.

    I personally think it is a tragedy that Condell Park is in a seat like this. It should be Padstow, Padstow Heights, Revesby, Revesby Heights, Panania, Picnic Point, Milperra and East Hills. That would be representative of the people in the area and if that were the seat, Labor would not have a hope in hell this time. They have a chance, but if I was running a betting book on the seat the Libs would be at $1.80 and Labor $2.

    I would be a little surprised if Labor held on here.

  5. If statewide polling continues to show the ALP’s primary vote at only around 20%, this seat could conceivably be in play. If there is some recovery in the ALP’s primary vote between now and the election, however, I would think that this chance would diminish. I would think that other seats such as Oatley and Kogarah would fall before this one.

  6. With reference to the Hughes overlay; some areas on the north bank of the Georges Rvr were redistributed into Hughes. To be frank these are most probably the more Liberal friendly parts of the East Hills electorate.

    On the matter of Delezio, his actual quality as a candidate as against the impact of the general factors prevailing is frankly debateable. Name recognition – OK, due to his daughter. Local ?? OK, he grew up there but lives elsewhere. Banks has swung viciously before & may do so again. Think it will be a massive high water mark for the Libs to win it.

    Ashton IS a very pedestrian MP with less than stellar political antenae. In a closer seat, he would most definitely be road-kill. Both state & federally, this is NOT fertile territory for the Greens with the likes of One Notion sometimes collecting up to 10%.

    Possible rather than probable pick-up. In the event of a “wipe-out”, this seat may well go …. otherwise it may well teeter the other side.

  7. Polling on the weekend says that the ALP will lose this by quite a bit. Sample only 200 though and not a main pollster. I think it’s becoming more likely unless the ALP put all of their resources into saving it.

  10. More polling showing the Liberals are going to win this but closer than the last poll done two weeks ago which suggests MoE……won’t be published.

    Are we going to get some seat-by-seat public polls going on????

  11. DB – On such a small sample size with such a high margin of error, the swing here must be enormous if the liberals are still ahead.

    And I agree, where are the state Newspolls and ACNielsen? We’re less than two months away from the election, but all we have is that tiny galaxy poll.

  12. A state Newspoll has certainly either been done is or continues to be undertaken at the moment, given that they polled me last Friday (I’d imagine it was the same polling that the Federal Newspoll out on Monday was based on), but for whatever reason it hasn’t been publicised yet. Perhaps the client was private?

  13. I don’t think newspoll would be doing private party polling. Labor and the liberals have their own pollsters they commission. Newspoll tend to poll over a longer period on state polls (two week snapshots?), so perhaps they will drop the NSW newspoll at the official start of the campaign next week.

  14. Lachlan – I’d suggest for the Liberals to win East Hills by say a 10% margin, the 66/34 that was published a couple of weeks ago (where primary support for the ALP was 20%) would need to be pretty much on the mark.

    As a bit of analysis, I have compared voting in East Hills to Penrith (as demographics are not dissimilar), which shows that since 1984, Penrith has been more marginal than East Hills on average by about 6.5% points (the margin has been relatively consistent except in 2003 (LNP got 13% more on 2pp in Penrith) and 2007 (LNP got only 1% more on 2pp in Penrith). The other 4 elections were between 5-8% each time on 2pp which indicates a stable enough comparison. Penrith is now on a Liberal margin of 16.5% but you need to allow for the Palluzzano fallout. Even so, on a same swing basis the Libs would win East Hills by about 15%. Now, I don’t at all think that is possible (despite the first private poll showing somewhere around that) for a couple of reasons: 1. Ashton is relatively well known on the southern side of the seat where the Liberal vote is the strongest and 2. you have the incumbent recontesting.

    But notwithstanding all of that, I reckon this seat is pretty much at the margin and I reckon the Liberals will win it in a close race if they put a concerted effort into campaigning there as the ALP generally do.

  15. Hi

    I will be running in this seat as the DLP endorsed Independent candidate. Will be looking to take some of the ethnic vote and give them an alternative to Labor while in the south, seek to appease the “anglo” majority as you described with my conservative policies.

    Maybe its time that this seat had a true representative to satisfy the wide spectrum of the people of East Hills.

  16. Boutros – the best thing for the East Hills people is to get a fair share of the Government spend. And the only way I see that is for it to be a swinging (co-alition held) seat this time. I am hoping you choose not to preference.

  18. My gf lives in this seat and word on the street is that there is a really big movement against Alan Ashton. In the 12 years he has been here, the only noticeable change for the better according to the people in Padstow is a new bridge across the rail-line in Padstow. The big gain for the Coalition will come around Padstow Heights, into Padstow and Revesby.

    The hammer will fall on this seat.

  19. Hawkeye – agree, the big swings will be around the affluent areas in the southern part of the seat near the river. Have seen plenty of Ashton signs around and few of Brookes, however, word on the street is that the ALP is on the nose big time here.

  20. Completely agree that Ashton is amongst the most underwelming MPs imagineable and, on merits, would be no loss to the political arena. His position is wholy due to being an unswerving spear-carrier for Daryl Melham who has held feudal sway over branches in this area since the late 80’s.

    Previous posters are correct in stating the largest swings are likely to be in the areas closest to the river …. sadly these ARE already the Libs strongest booths. These swings will need to be matched north of the East Hills railway line to ensure a Lib win.

    Lib win ?? Increasingly plausible …. though I suspect it may prove to be a one-off.

  21. dirkprovin – interesting thoughts. If I am right, I see that in the south in 2007 (ALP):
    – Milperra 54%
    – East Hills 59%
    – Picnic Point 58% (historically a 60/40 Liberal booth in many Federal elections)
    – Revesby Heights 53%
    – Padstow Heights 59%.

    I expect the Liberals will win everyone of these booths and will probably get 70/30 in Picnic Point and probably 60/40 on average in the others. The key for the Liberals will be to limit the damage to 55/45 in the centre and northern part of the seat. If they do that, they win.

    The other thing here is that 2007 was a funny election for above average blue collar seats like these. Debnam was seen as an Eastern Suburbs toff, where as O’Farrell is seen to be acceptable in blue collar areas. Many of these southern booths in East Hillis in 2007 are a testament to that as on average Federal results show a much different picture under Howard from memory.

    I still say a Liberal win. Local Liberal candidate is increasingly quietly confident.

  23. Other candidates for this seat mentioned elsewhere are Stan Hurley for Family First, Mark Falanga for the CDP, Independent Tony Batch, and previous commenter Boutros Zalloua for the unregistered DLP.

  24. condell park is in this seat to make up the quota…… there are not enough voters in the Revesby suburbs
    This is one of the unknowns of the election. The splitting of the the Revesby suburbs between Hughes and Banks @ the Federal level is insane.

  25. Mick Quinlivan – some polling in Condell Park and Georges Hall on the weekend would be devastating news to the ALP. I am becoming increasingly confident of a major upset here.

  26. Ashton is also admitting publicly that he is in big trouble. It was private before (with expectations of up to a 20% swing to the Liberals). Apparently, none of the candidates here are going to preference the ALP on their ‘how to vote’ tickets and Ashton is desperate to do a deal.

    Could end up being the closest result of all, however, both parties now seem to be suggesting that the Liberals are a much bigger chance here. Phone polling has been disastrous for the ALP particularly.

    Remember, this is a seat that the ALP has always held.

    http://www.torchpublishing.com.au/read/Torch_Bankstown_23_February_2011/index.php

  27. Yes, ALP will be in best trouble… my prediction is that in 5 years time the DLP will replace the ALP as the primary Labor party of Western Sydney and regional NSW.

    I am recruiting DLP members at a rate of 15 a week and thats just in the my area… People are really sick of the ALP… I dont think the Liberals will be fair to the blue collars of western and south western sydney… We are the only party that allows members and locals “off the street” to submit policies to the executive… this is grass roots politics!!!

  29. the DLP? formed 55 years ago fell apart a bit over 30 years ago………. back to the future
    but….. they did spawn Tony Abbott

  30. DLP is back… grass roots, its about time Australia is introduced to the concept of “youth movements”… we have a lot of “oldies” supporting us, but the youth are looking for real action in areas and a party that doesnt compromise its values…

  31. Good luck in saving yr deposit, Boutros. You’ll be close to unique amongst DLP candidates if you do.

  32. Don’t worry dirkprovin it should be okay, I may not have trade unions backing me but I have a lot of people that are committed to the cause. They want to see some commonsense return to government.

    If we can get a DLP Federal Senator elected, anything is possible…

  33. Boutros: I can certainly respect your cause and commitment to DLP, but I’ve been in youth activism for a while and I can tell you that youths are by no means disengaged. Greens have an exponential influx of young activists, and both Labor factional youth wings have only seen increased sign-ups every year.

    With all due respect I don’t know that the DLP’s socially conservative platforms are something you can build a youth movement out of.

  34. Crazedmongoose, there are a lot of youths who are quite put off by moral relativism and debauchery, who want social stability having suffered from the excesses of parental divorce and the diminishing of the family unit.

  35. You said it TE, I’m 20 next month and I put FF/DLP/CDP highly up in my preferences, although I still put Liberal as number 1 (in most cases).

  36. Of course there are a lot of youths who find their home in social conservatism. I’m just saying there are many more who are repelled by it. It is not coincidence that the youths have consistently polled significantly to the left of mainstream on every social issue in the last twenty years. Even with the current very unpopular NSW government, under 25’s are still a segment which drastically prefers Labor to Coalition.

    Also on a side note I’ve known many kids, myself included, who grew up with “the excesses of parental divorce and the diminishing of the family unit”. Not the end of the world mate.

    In fact, just personally speaking, there’s nothing like a divorce/diminishing family unit which helped me established my worldviews on empowering women, strong public education, the importance of financial independence away from the nuclear family, etc etc.

  37. Actually sorry I don’t know why I keep commenting like this. Ben, could you please delete my posts which aren’t related to a direct political analysis? (like the few above)

    The Tally Room, as I always understood it, isn’t a place for moralistic or political debate, or, I might point out, for third party candidates relentlessly trying to push an agenda. It’s a place for electoral analysis and discussions from that point of view. And I salute Ben who, despite being a operative of the Greens, has always managed to keep his posts impartial and purely analytical.

  39. From an analytical perspective, I think the youth are moving back towards “conservative” side of politics, swing against Labor is not just about corruption and incompetence, its also about values and having a “good” vision for the future of our society.

    I was a supporter of the Socialist Alliance in my uni days and that was only 8 years ago. People are starting to see the socialist agenda for what it is and there was clear evidence of that in the Victorian election where 12 of the MPs that supported the pro abortion law of 2008 were voted out including the minister that introduced the law. (Greens vote stagnated as well)

    You will see the same thing happen in NSW and there is a strong chance that so-called “right wing conservatives” can control the LC rather than the Greens.

    There should be no reason why we cant discuss this topic because we are talking about demographics and the ideology and belief system of people who are voting in this electorate and in this election in general…

    In the USA, there is also a push back to conservative policies, look at the tea party for example. The silent majority is no longer being silent because of increasing pressures such as economic recession, record high commodity prices etc. This also impacts us, just look at the petrol prices on the weekend at your local petrol station.

  40. Boutros – I think insofar as East Hills goes, alot of older folk are moving out and the young aspirationals with large mortgages and double-incomes (and probably at least one white-collar per household) are moving in. It is convenient to the city (25kms) and Parramatta and Bankstown (by car). The number of newly built houses (replacing fibro knockdowns) are astonishing over the last 4 years particularly in East Hills, Picnic Point, and Panania. So I believe that although this is clearly an ALP seat in a normal election, there is a gradual move to a more conservative supporter base in this seat. From the info I am getting, Ashton should not be favourite this time.

  42. Hi ABC Feedback Team

    Emily Dunn in Mulgoa, Boutros Zalloua in East Hillsand Simon McCaffrey in Macquarie Fields are not endorsed by the DLP NSW Branch led by Michael O’Donohue.

    Since 2008 and currently , the NSW Electoral Commission, as recently as 16th February 2011, has reconfirmed that Michael O’Donohue is the Secretary of the NSW Branch of the DLP and also that he is the Registered Officer.

    Michael O’Donohue and his Executive do not recognise the above three candidates and they have not been endorsed by the Executive.

    For further information contact myself Michael Webb on 0422 578 662 or alternatively my friend and colleague Michael O’Donohue on the DLP NSW Branch url below:

    http://www.dlpnsw.com/contact.php

  43. The anti ALP views of Boutros Zalloua are not endorsed by the NSW Executive led by Michael O’Donohue.

    Mr Zalloua has emailed me with passionate anti ALP views which I find repugnant as a Laborite.

  44. Boutros’ small group of ‘dlp’ friends met at Homebush last year.

    Meanwhile several hundred members that make up the real DLP NSW Branch led by Michael O’Donohue cannot see where their claim to democracy comes in.

    Boutros and his colleagues met with about 20 approx at Homebush.

    Most are not known to the real NSW Branch of the DLP. None are endorsed.

    The NSW Electoral Commission has confiredm on 16th February 2011 that Michael O’Donohue is the secretary and also the registered officer.

    We find boutros’ views about the ALP and unions to be different to ours.

  46. Michael Webb – that is a great shame, because Mr Zalloua makes great sense. What a shame the DLP can’t get its act together and become the central force that Australian politics needs. Can I suggest Mr Webb, that you guys get you acts together, disassociate yourselves from the ALP/Union movement and provide some central policies that can be supported by the majority of Australians who are the 75% of the workforce not in a Union. Any sensible political force would not be preferencing or aligning themselves to the ALP in this election. I am most disappointed with your second post above especially.

  47. Michael: In contrast to DB, I’d like to express my thanks.

    Labor are already going to lose this election in a landslide, no matter what anybody does (aside from say….Barry O’Farrell burning down an orphanage) and most people including me will agree that it is deserved.

    But the Coalition has so far ran a strategically optimal campaign which involves focussing all attention to the sinking ship of NSW Labor. Whilst smart, unfortunately this means by the time they come into power with conservative control of both upper and lower house, we most likely still won’t know a lot of their policies.

    It’s up to the parties which hold divergent views to the Coalition, whether they be the pro-working class DLP or the social liberal Greens, to hold the Coalition to task once they’re in government.

    So I was fairly disappointed when I heard that Mr. Zalloua was preferencing Liberals. Not just not preferencing Labor, which is more than fair enough, but actively preferencing Liberals.

  48. crazedmongoose – hang on a sec. You are misrepresenting the issues between the lower house and upper house.

    Firstly, you say that the conservatives would control both the lower and upper house. I can understand voters concerns if the co-alition controlled both outright. But there is no possibility of that. At best, they will need the support of other parties (Christian Party, Family First, Shooters Party) to have full control of the upper house. These are separate parties to the co-alition, albeit, these parties are right of centre. But we face the same thing in Federal politics in the Senate with the Greens/ALP from 1/7. Do you have the same concerns then with a left-of-centre control of the Senate post 1/7 and carbon tax, MRRT, NBN et al?

    Secondly, here, we are talking about the lower house seat of East Hills which will have absolutely no impact on your overall implication of total conservative rule. East Hills has always been an ALP seat and (in my opinion) has always been neglected due to it being a safe ALP seat. Perhaps if it were a swinging seat, it may actually get the representation and funding it deserves as a marginal does. The locals want a better M5, train timetable and the potential for a regular public bus system to Parramatta and Hurstville, and better parks. They will not get this under the ALP. If the constituents have any chance, they need a change from the ALP in this lower house seat. Mr Zalloua obviously recognises this and in my opinion, he is doing the correct thing for the constituents of East Hills.

    Finally, a vote for Mr Zalloua (and preference to the Liberal Party in the lower house seat of East Hills) will have absolutely no impact on control of the upper house. If the DLP did achieve an upper house seat, they would still be able to hold the co-alition to account despite Mr Zalloua preferenicing the Liberals in the lower house. And I would welcome them in doing this in the interests of accountable government. To Mr Zalloua I say well done and I wish you all the best in taking such a sensible and princpled stance in this election.

    crazedmongoose, while I like most of your comments, your above comment just doesn’t cut the mustard in the interests of the constituents of East Hills.

  49. Dear DB,

    There is no question of even having to get our acts together because Boutros and the others are not members of our branch and so we do not know them.
    Unions and the ALP and the DLP are historically linked. Being in the DLP does not in anyway mean that one is anti the unions. It is a question of getting more rank and file rights back into the unions – not distancing ourselves from them. Otherwise the DLP would not be a real Labor party.
    db, it might be best if you stick to the Coalition side of politics rather than lecture Labor people about what we ought to do. I am a proud trade unionist . This does not mean that I endorse corrupt behaviour in govt/unions. I seek reform. Many of the people claiming to be DLP share our views on life issues and the DLP platform however, some of their public and private emails to me and on social networking sites indicte a non Labor form of politics and views that i cannot stomach.

  50. Michael Webb – I honestly wish you well. Hopefully you can take ground from the ALP in future and get their primary vote in the teens. And hopefully we get more candidates who are free thinkers like Mr Zalloua. Whilst I might be a conservative, I certainly respect and understand the importance of the union movement, mainly for disadvantaged and lowly skilled workers.

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