LIB 24.7%
Incumbent MP
Jonathan O’Dea, since 2007.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Davidson covers parts of Ku-ring-gai and Warringah local government areas, including the suburbs of Roseville, Lindfield, Killara, St Ives, Davidson and Belrose.
History
The district of Davidson has existed since 1971, and it has always been won by the Liberal Party.
Davidson was first won in 1971 by Liberal MP Dick Healey. He had been Member for Wakehurst since 1962. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1973 to 1976. He held his seat until 1981, when he lost Liberal preselection to Terry Metherell.
Terry Metherell quickly rose to the Coalition frontbench in Opposition, and became Minister for Education when Greiner gained power in 1988. His educational reforms were unpopular, and he was forced to resign from the ministry after accusations of tax avoidance.
The Coalition lost its majority at the 1991 election, and Metherell’s prospects of returning to the ministry were squashed. He resigned from the Liberal Party in late 1991.
When the Liberal Party lost The Entrance by-election, they needed Metherell’s vote to maintain power.
In 1992, Metherell was appointed to a newly-created position with the Environment Protection Agency, vacating his seat. The following by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Humpherson.
Following the by-election, the Legislative Assembly referred the issue to the newly-created Independent Commission Against Corruption, which found that the Premier, Nick Greiner, and his Minister for the Environment had both acted corruptly, which led to their resignations.
Humpherson held Davidson comfortably throughout the 1990s, and in 2000 was appointed to the opposition frontbench.
In the lead-up to the 2007 election, Humpherson was challenged for preselection by Jonathan O’Dea, who won a close-run preselection battle, and went on to win the 2007 election.
Candidates
- Matthew Gilliland (Labor)
- Jonathan O’Dea (Liberal)
- Helen Owen (Independent)
- Peter Chapman (Christian Democratic Party)
- John Davis (Greens)
Political situation
Davidson is a very safe Liberal seat. There is potential for the Greens to overtake Labor in this seat in 2011, as the margin between the two parties is 3.3%.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jonathan O’Dea | LIB | 23,358 | 60.4 | +0.2 |
| Doug McLeod | ALP | 7,058 | 16.8 | -3.0 |
| Jo-Anne Lentern | GRN | 5,671 | 13.5 | +1.7 |
| Bruce York | CDP | 1,934 | 4.6 | +1.9 |
| Clinton Barnes | DEM | 1,143 | 2.7 | +0.8 |
| David Kitson | AAFI | 807 | 1.9 | +0.6 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jonathan O’Dea | LIB | 27,516 | 74.7 | +3.8 |
| Doug McLeod | ALP | 9,334 | 25.3 | -3.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Davidson have been divided in four areas, based on key suburbs. Booths in Warringah have been grouped as “Frenchs Forest”. Booths in Ku-ring-gai have been divided into three areas, from north to south: St Ives, Gordon-Pymble and Killara-Roseville.
The Liberal Party won a majority of primary votes in all areas, varying from over 65% in St Ives to 56% in Frenchs Forest. The ALP’s vote peaked at 20.9% in Frenchs Forest, while the Greens vote peaked at 15% in Gordon-Pymble. The Greens outpolled Labor in the Gordon-Pymble area, and at six booths, most of which run along the train line at the western end of the seat.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Frenchs Forest | 56.0 | 20.9 | 12.6 | 10,509 | 25.0 |
| St Ives | 65.3 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 9,320 | 22.2 |
| Killara-Roseville | 59.2 | 16.9 | 14.7 | 9,016 | 21.5 |
| Gordon-Pymble | 62.2 | 14.7 | 15.0 | 5,090 | 12.1 |
| Other votes | 60.8 | 15.5 | 13.7 | 8,036 | 19.1 |
My prediction: Liberal retain, 4-7% swing and the Greens to finish second.
Labor’s candidate is Mathew Gilliland.
Argh FFS. That page tells you that Andrew Humpherson is the current MP – he got replaced in 2007. Can’t Labor even get these piddly little things right?
I’d like to hear these candidates for unwinnable seats asked the question: “Do you think you’ll win? And if not, why are you running?” Their responses would be interesting.
Bird of paradox: I know a fair few young labor candidates like Mathew (who is a very smart and funny guy actually) and the honest answer is:
Do they think they’ll win? No, of course not.
Why are they running? Because the party/movement asks and they serve. There are practical reasons such as upper house votes which are needed in every seat, and the funding thing.
Anyway if you do want to see Mathew’s thoughts on the current party, the wider movement and the future of the Labor party, there’s a short article about the candidates’ debate in Davidson:
http://manly-daily.whereilive.com.au/news/story/mat-takes-a-shot-for-alp/
I can tell you that his views are pretty common amongst both Young Labor and the rank and file branches.
Leave those young candidates alone. Of course they can’t win. As someone who has done that sort of job before for the Greens (running against Mark Latham when I was 18), they really don’t deserve to be mocked and attacked.
Every party always has seats where they can’t find great local candidates and need to find someone to appear on the ballot. It’s an unpleasant duty that someone has to do and usually falls on younger people with less commitments and more willingness to be a sacrificial lamb.
At least they are giving the few voters in their area the choice of voting Labor.
@Bird Of Paradox, as you can see above I was the Labor candidate for this seat in 2007. I think you are a little lacking in imagination if you cannot see many reasons to run in an unwinnable seat. You gain a great deal of valuable experience which you can use if you ever run in a winnable seat, it is like an intensive training course for politicians. Even if you don’t prevail you have the satisfaction of knowing that your views were aired and considered before being rejected: you didn’t conform to the mantra of ‘consume, be silent, die’. Although I was not expecting this, I found it was like reality television: you are treated like a real politician by both the public and the media for the duration of the campaign. It was an intense and fascinating experience to see what it is really like to be a politician, including the photos in the paper and the calls from constituents at 7:30 in the morning. Rather flattering really.
Finally Jonathon ODea was kind enough to invite me to lunch at parliament house after the election!
Overall it was one of the most worthwhile things that I have ever done, notwithstanding my paltry vote and non-existent chances of winning.
My prediction is Labor to poll 6 – 7% and this should not (and within the party will not) be taken as any reflection on Matt.
I know Mat G is a highly intelligent young person and a great candidate. So is Amy Smith in Epping. As for why they ran – neither of them are under any illusions about how tough things are. But it’s an honour to be a candidate for Labor at any election, and these two deserve praise for taking it on in such a tough year.
I got to meet Matt at the Forum at DY RSL a couple of Monday’s ago. Quite an impressive young kid and very well spoken. It is true that he has some very tough words for the ALP. If keeps his no-nonsense approach and is given a seat where he has a reasonable chance to win, I think he has a good future ahead of him.
This will be a learning curb but a valuable one none-the-less.
There’s an independent candidate here, Helen Owen, but I can’t find much about her.
Fair enough that we should cut the young inexperienced candidates some slack in seats like this, but it’s questionable in places like Ballina and Tweed, where, even if Labor aren’t going to do well this election, I’d say they should still try to find strong and ‘credible’ candidates to maintain the ‘brand image’ for future elections, both state and federal (where they hold the seats). I do think at least they should try to find candidates who will be in or near the electorate during the campaign.