Clarence – NSW 2011

NAT 11.6%

Incumbent MP
Steve Cansdell, since 2003.

Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers all of Clarence Valley local government area, most of Richmond Valley, and small parts of the City of Coffs Harbour and the City of Lismore. The main centres of the town are Grafton, Yamba, Maclean and Casino.

History
The district of Clarence has existed since 1859, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s. The seat has been dominated by the Country/National Party since 1927. The seat has been won by the Labor Party at the 1981 and 1999 elections and at the 1996 by-election, the only occasions when another party won the seat.

The seat was won in 1938 by Cecil Wingfield of the Country Party. He defeated the sitting Country Party MP, Alfred Henry. At the time, the Country Party allowed multiple candidates to contest the same seat. He held the seat until his death in 1955.

The 1955 by-election was won by former Grafton mayor Bill Weiley, also of the Country Party. He held the seat until he retired at the 1971 election.

At the 1971 election, the Country Party’s Matt Singleton won Clarence. In 1981, the redistribution created the new seat of Coffs Harbour and made Clarence a notional Labor seat. Singleton shifted to the new seat of Coffs Harbour, which he held until his retirement in 1990. He served as a minister in the Greiner government from 1988 to 1989.

The 1981 redistribution also abolished the Labor seat of Casino, which had existed for ten years. It had been won by the first time in 1971 by the ALP’s Don Day. Day became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976, and in 1981 moved to the seat of Clarence. He retired at the 1984 election.

Clarence was won back in 1984 by the National Party’s Ian Causley. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Clarence to contest the federal Labor seat of Page. He held that federal seat until his retirement in 2007.

In 1996, Causley defeated the sitting Labor Member for Page, Harry Woods. Woods, newly out of work, contested Causley’s vacated seat of Clarence and the ensuing by-election, and won the seat. He became a minister in the Labor government in 1997, and served in that role until his retirement in 2003.

Clarence was won in 2003 by the National Party’s Steve Cansdell, and he was re-elected in 2007.

Candidates

Political situation
Clarence is now a safe Nationals seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steve Cansdell NAT 23,181 52.9 +4.0
Mark Kingsley ALP 13,148 30.0 -6.9
Craig Howe IND 3,274 7.5 +7.5
Theo Jongen GRN 3,081 7.0 +1.2
Doug Behn IND 1,147 2.6 +0.8

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steve Cansdell NAT 24,470 61.6 +6.3
Mark Kingsley ALP 15,285 38.4 -6.3

Booth breakdown
Booths in Clarence have been divided into five areas. The major centres of Grafton and Casino have each been grouped together. Those booths lying on or near the Clarence River between Grafton and the seat have been grouped together as “Clarence River”, and include the towns of Yamba and Maclean. Those booths along the southern border have been grouped as “South”, and those north of the Clarence River and south of Casino have been grouped as “North”.

The National Party’s margin over the ALP varied from 63% in Grafton to 57% in Casino.

Independent candidate Craig Howe came third, polling 7.5%. He polled 13.6% in Grafton, 8% in the south of the seat, but under 3% in northern parts of the seat. The Greens came fourth, with 7%. The highest Greens votes were 11.8% in the south and 9.8% in the north, with the lowest vote being 5% in Grafton.

Polling booths in Clarence at the 2007 state election. Casino in green, North in orange, Clarence River in blue, Grafton in yellow, South in red.
Voter group GRN % IND % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Grafton 5.1 13.6 63.4 12,042 27.5
Clarence River 7.4 5.8 62.5 11,087 25.3
Casino 6.0 2.9 57.2 5,796 13.2
North 9.8 2.5 61.9 4,020 9.2
South 11.8 8.2 58.8 2,932 6.7
Other votes 7.0 6.1 62.4 7,954 18.1
Two-party-preferred votes in Clarence at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Grafton at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Casino at the 2007 state election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. a personal vote is very important in a seat like this… on federal figures Labor would hold this seat I think

  3. Minor correction – Yamba is the larger town in the lower Clarence.

    If I remember my reading correctly, when Don Day won Casino in 1971 the vote was sharply split between the two halves of the seat. The Country Party candidate was from the Casino area and did well there, but Day was from the lower Clarence and got a strong parochial vote there. The Country Party tried to counter this at the subsequent elections by fielding two candidates, one from either end of the seat. Casino may well have been the last place where a major party fielded multiple candidates in the one electorate.

    Cansdell may well have won Clarence in 1999 had it not been for a three-cornered contest, where Bill Day, son of the former Labor member, ran for the Liberals and split the Coalition vote.

    Craig Howe was a teacher from Grafton, who, from memory, had little public profile. He’s subsequently been elected to Clarence Valley council.

    Curious thing about the Labor vote in 2007 was that whilst it plummeted across the board (Labor having withdrawn resources after losing the seat in 03) it actually increased substantially in the Casino booths. This can be attributed to the fact that Casino effectively lost its sitting member through the redistribution, where Casino was shifted from Lismore into Clarence – Lismore MP Thomas George having been from Casino. It’s another indicator of the significance of personal votes and incumbency advantages in regional seats.

    The Labor candidate this time was previously a state and federal candidate for them in the 1970s and 80s.

    Richie Williamson is also the local breakfast radio presenter and polled very strongly at the last council election. He is not out of the running to win the seat and is attracting a lot of media coverage. This will be a battle of two high-profile local conservative candidates.

  5. Geoff, yes Cansdell only narrowly won in 2003. The Labor candidate, Terry Flanagan, had a high profile as he’d been the candidate for Page at the 2001 federal election.

    This is actually definitely shaping up as a contest to watch. It’s the only seat north of Port Macquarie where there’s any really serious campaigning going on. There is plenty of media interest in this seat and Williamson is definitely attracting enough attention to make him a serious threat.

    Another declared candidate is Bethany Camac for the CDP.

  8. Williamson has a website.

    Also running is Kristen Bromell for Family First.

    Whatever happened to serial candidate Doug Behn? Don’t tell me he’s retired from politics.

  9. Williamson’s problem will be that he’s nowhere near as well known in the northern part of the electorate, however Cansdell has been running plenty of advertising and the Nats are clearly a little worried.

    The ALP are preferencing Williamson.

    Not sure if Williamson can win, but he has to be in with a shot. Certainly worth a few dollars at the ridiculous 100-1 odds Sportsbet are currently offering. Someone with a Sportsbet account please put $5 on him for me.

  10. NBN TV news has tonight reported that MP Steve Cansdell is supplying a free shuttle bus to take residents of Brooms Head (where there is no polling booth at this election) to a polling booth at Gulmarrad.

    I thought it was illegal for a candidate to offer transport to voters (s.149 of the Parliamentary Electorates and Elections Act). Please explain.

  11. The 1955 election was won by W.R.WEILEY AS AN INDEPENDANT. He later changed to the country party

  12. This is as good a place as any to note the Clarence by-election on Nov 19th, after Cansdell resigned for signing a false stat dec over a speeding fine. I really wonder why MPs don’t just cop it sweet when they get a fine, but anyway…….

    Obviously will be a swing against the Nationals given the blowout of March and the circumstances of Cansdell resigning. From Antony Green’s site there doesn’t look to be a formidable Independent contesting….one Indy has no information on him and the other appaears to be a serial candidate. Richie Williamson rejoined the National Party.

    Labor is contesting, surprisingly, plus the usual hodge-podge of minor parties. I’d suspect the Greens will do very well indeed given the lack of a high-profile Independent, Nat resigning in disgrace, and Labor presumably still on the nose.

  13. Labor will probably be regretting their decision to contest the byelection after today’s newspoll. They were hoping to take some paint off the state government over O’Farrell’s early bungles over Orica, public sector pay and the solar bonus scheme. Clearly that’s not going to happen.

    I doubt the federal government will be impressed either. This state seat lies within the Federal Labor held marginal seat of Page. It’s also next door to Rob Oakeshott’s seat of Lyne. No doubt the Nationals will relish the chance to turn this byelection into a referendum on the carbon tax on the North Coast.

  14. Don’t know about that, Lachlan.

    It’s certain there will be a swing AGAINST the Nationals, given their inflated margin from March, so unlikely the NSW Coalition will be talking this up as a referendum on anything.

    Maybe if there was a decent anti-Nat swing but Labor and the Greens got no primary boost at all, you could start drawing deeper implications.

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