Campbelltown – NSW 2011

1. I am unsure about this seat. Despite an expected large decline in the ALP’s statewide vote, the boundaries and demographics of this seat are very different to the time that the Liberal Party last won in 1968. There are very few booths in the current seat that have a history of delivering reasonable Liberal majorities in recent history. There have been issues with ALP preselection and the Liberal Party has preselected a good candidate in Brian Doyle, I am not sure whether this will be enough to deliver a Liberal majority.

2. I am told there is a significant ALP and LP presence in this seat already with a mommoth amount of ALP leaflets (i.e. costs) about to be unleashed on unsuspecting voters. Surely, this can’t be in play?

3. You would think not DB, but then again, no-one was expecting Carrum to fall at last year’s Victorian election.

4. DB – the ALP are definitely campaigning in this seat.

5. Lachlan – there must be some Labor party polling showing this is in jeopardy from what I am seeing, which suggests to me that all of the seats (except Macquarie Fields) in the suburban south and suburban south west (closer to the city than Campbelltown) are lost or in jeopardy.

   I’d still say that East Hills/Oatley/Kogarah are the seats at the margin in this election (for the south/south-west).

   If Campbelltown is in any jeopardy, East Hills will certainly fall (which many are starting to predict in the area).

6. O’Farrell and Keneally both campaigned in this seat the other day – that should tell you a few things about the internal polling (both sides believe they can win). As for the external polling, AC Nielsen today is showing a 17% swing away from Labor, which if replicated would leave the liberals about 1-2% short. I tend to think Labor will hang on to this on around about that margin.

7. So, DB, you’re including a seat like Liverpool in your “gawn” bin ?? Think that one’s a stretch !! Tend to line up with Lachlan re Campbelltown.

   Yr “highwater” grouping is rather interesting. I tend to think that Oatley is a seat that Libs could hold in govt whereas Kogarah & East Hills woud more fit that bill. The latter two may well go at this election (holding beyond one term may be another matter); Oatley a far more certain proposition.

8. dirkprovin – you got me on that one! Liverpool WILL remain in ALP hands and Campbelltown should. I agree with you on the others. I think the Liberals will win all of Kogarah, Oatley and East Hills this time. But I think they could only hope to retain Oatley after one term unless the Liberal Government were to be very popular.

   I thought the AC Nielson was 34/66 where as 2007 was 52.3/47.7, which is a 18.3% swing – right on the number almost for this seat!

9. Sorry, I should have said before that the PRIMARY vote swing against Labor is 17%. The liberals are winning 15-16% of that swing. That’s enough to crack Oatley, East Hills and Kogarah, but not this. To win here the libs really need a primary vote swing closer to 20%.

10. Interesting some of the departed arent even waiting for March 26.

    Graham West has already started work at the St Vincent De Paul Society despite the election being 5 weeks away. Ring himself for yourself on 9568-0666 at Vinnies and say hi.

11. 2007 CDP candidate David Wright is running for them again. He was also the Liberal candidate in 2003.

12. My prediction: Labor retain, 13-17% swing to Liberals.

13. Brian Doyle is an outstanding candidate and is worthy of the trust and opportunity of the people of Campbelltown. I wish him all the best and believe he has a good shot at this area to serve the people.

14. Also entering the field here is Independent Chimezie Kingsley.

15. With the M5 expansion, you’d think that this seat is well in play.

16. morgieb – not just this one: Wollondilly, Campbelltown, Macquarie Fields, East Hills, Menai, Oatley. That is where it was directly aimed. It was a ripper policy. No-one truly understands what the M5 means to those in the south-west and the daily grind from 5.30am as a result of two lanes.

17. Well most of those seats (except Macquarie Fields) were already in play before the M5 expansion (in fact, Wollondilly and Menai were gone IMO), and the M5 is a major issue. So yeah, it won’t just affect Campbelltown, but probably other seats too.

18. Camden is also definitely a seat affected by the M5. After talking to family who live in the seat of Camden near the M5 tell me that a lot of people are angry at the policy, considering it doesn’t involve widening of the M5 tunnel, which is the most serious bottleneck on the motorway.

19. Ben Raue: sorry, “angry at the policy”?

    I’d have thought it’d have been very well recieved.

20. M5 East is even worse than the M5 West from memory. Then again, I didn’t live as far west as Liverpool/Campbelltown….

21. It’s not perfect (not to have the M5 East expanded) but it will certainly cut down the time going home for many. I think the policy was a commitment to the M5 west extension and a further consideration to M5 East when in Government. Can’t see that voters will hate that one and certainly not the response in East Hills in the last few days.

22. The M5 announcement may mean that the Liberals consider winning this seat to be a decent chance. You would think that the seats of Wollondilly and Camden are certain Liberal gains anyway.

23. Ben – you were right with Camden too. That’s the one I missed.

    David – Campbelltown is very much in play. O’Farrell has been there 4 times in the last 3 weeks.

24. I cant see this seat falling to the libs. Barry offarell has been out but wollondilly takes in half of the campbelltown LGA and Camden comes into Campbelltown LGA. The polls will tighten as they do and you tend to find most voters make up their minds as they walk in.

    Bryan doyle had a brain snap at a public function last week, typical of bullying behaviour

25. The ALP candidate is marginally ahead of the Liberal candidate before preferences based on small sample polling.

26. When I mean marginally ahead, it was 2 votes.

27. 3rd time lucky for Nick Bleasdale(he’s unsuccessfully contested Macarthur in the last 2 Federal elections)?

28. @DB – 2 ahead out of ?

29. All of DB’s polling appears to be on samples of 200.

30. So 101 to 99 – dead heat in my book.

31. Probably less than that. There’d still be undecideds and third party and ind voters. His polling seems to all be before preferences.

32. Chimezie Kingsley’s website is remarkably good for an independent.

    Also, unlike so many independents, he doesn’t seem to be a loon. Mores the pity. Elections are just not as fun without a few fruitcake indies.

33. CrazedMongoose: It’s probably the best way to measure who would most likely win this seat as the majority of polling that is conducted doesn’t take into account the nature of OPV. If it is the case, then I would actually expect the difference to be a lot greater.

34. I’ve given up on the preference game. It’s impossible to judge in this election. But it will be lower than in 2007 for the ALP.

    Sample was 200. It was 86 to 84 in favour of ALP, 12 to CDP, 8 to Green and 10 other / undecided. Other voters were not asked about preferences. Of the 84, 73 said they would definitely vote Liberal, where as 56 said they would definitely vote ALP.

    I reckon approx 50% of primaries will exhaust overall in this election, but you never know. I think one demonstrates though that preferences could determine this result. Two other polls here are almost a dead heat as well with the ALP just (and I mean just ahead). I still reckon ALP will hold. I’d want to see less than 2% MOE but we won’t get that now unless we have samples of 2000 and that won’t happen.

35. Well it appears to me that Nick Bleasdale is a seasoned campaigner thats all, he just came off 2 very close elections so I am sure he knows what he is doing . I also see that Jai rowell is running a very good campaign, he is the former campaign manager for the libs for the past 2 elections.
    I would have loved to have seen these 2 go at it against each other. hmpf

36. The M5 East was build as a 2 lane road each way, the car government had the option of spending more money to make it expendable in the future and chosed not to.

    It will cost any new government a lot of money to increase the tunnell and the tunnell will also have to be closed for it to happen

    It was a major disaster due to a lack of foresight by the Carr government

37. Dave Latham (current NSW Young Labor president, Arbib protege) parachuted in to run Bleasdale’s campaign about three weeks ago) has boasted that he will be “bringing home Campbeltown” on facebook.

    Soooo, yeah, I get to jerk him around about that I expect if we don’t retain this.

38. Oh dear. We don’t need another Arbib clone. Just like I don’t particularly want another Pyne!

39. I think we can say one thing from the result here: Nick Bleasdale will NOT win pre-selection again.

40. Chimezie is NOT I say NOT a real independant as 2 things must be stated. His volunteers on booths not staffed by the christian democrats were hand out his HTV’s
    Secondly bryan doyle was running around saying that chimezie was going to preference him until it was discovered that he had not registered this htv , only an exhausing HTV.

    Campbelltown conned and the greens not preferencing has now put one of the most right wing MP’s into parliament that we have ever seen.

    Ben I dare you to post this, i know you dont like the truth

41. Hey Crazy Mongoose. I thought you were the only crazy one here. What’s going on now?

    It seems as if Nick Bleasdale couldn’t sell a dollar for 90 cents. This was a seat he should have won. Wow! Just Wow!

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