Cabramatta – NSW 2011

1. Ben, you reckon you could put up a map of the swings between 2007 election and 2008 by-election? (Kinda like you did on the old Penrith pages, when you covered that by-election.) It’d be interesting to see… there’s some booths that swung by over 30%, notably two of the three Liberal booths at the by-election (where the Liberals tripled their vote). Meanwhile, Labor seem to have held their vote a bit better in the west of the seat.

2. West of the seat is not the Indochinese area. Lalich is Serbian and has a support base in the west. Not seen as close to the Indochinese community.

3. Ahh right. So, if Dai Le does her work, she could end up winning a few more of those eastern booths.

4. But some Serbs contrast their treatment as migrants with what they think was the greater help the Indochinese received.

5. Dai Le will win this seat. Every day she is door knocking .Every weekend out. Every week positive press. Lalich will not be able to hold this seat.

6. Four years ago this seat was the safest ALP seat in NSW. For Dai Le to win, she would have to get another 8% on top of the 21% she has already made it swing at the byelection. That’s pretty tough.

7. Agree with Lachlan. If Dai Le were to win this seat then the ALP WILL only have a soccer team. BTW I think they will probably end up with 2 soccer teams.

8. Comfortable Labor victory Dai Le has a limited appeal.

9. This is a seat where the protest vote is half done. Look at recent history (Like when Cunningham went to the Greens).

   My thought is Lalich shall retain in the low teens on 2PP

10. Another candidate here is the CDP’s Peter Tadros.

11. Lalich should retain the seat. Cabramatta has a similar margin to the Federal seats of McMahon and Fowler (Cabramatta is part of Fowler). While the seat of Smithfield is slowly turning to the Liberals, due to the aspirational and ethnic changes in the area, Cabramatta is still the same in a demographic sense, and I dare say the massive swings in Fowler at the Federal Election, and the By-Election in 2008, represent the extent of the momentum that the Liberals will get in Cabramatta.

    For the Liberals to get any more momentum, they need a strong, local high-profile candidate. Those candidates don’t exist in that part of the world. As good a job, Dai Le has done in Cabramatta, the big issue is that she is not a local. I know Reba Meagher got away with living in Coogee, but the locals tend to be less kind to Liberals who live outside the area, and Dulwich Hill, with all due respect is not Cabramatta. Lalich is the most prominent citizen in the electorate. That will be the big difference on election night, if it is close, as well as Lalich’s Serbian base.

    Also, Le has to cut into the massive primary lead that Lalich has in St Johns Park, Wakeley and Bonnyrigg to stand a hope of running it close. 20-25% swings in these areas on primaries are necessary (she doesn’t have to win the areas, just run Lalich close), if she is to capitalise on her relative popularity in Lansvale and the Cabramatta CBD and win the seat. Cabramatta West and Mt Pritchard, which are still relatively Anglo areas will be interesting to watch, as well. I suspect that they are more ambivalent towards the Serbian Lalich, than the Asian Le, but we will wait and see. Lalich might be wishing he had Bonnyrigg Heights, instead of it being in Liverpool (There are plenty of Serbians there).

    Overall, a Labor victory, but I can’t really pick whether there will be a swing of any type at all. It could go either way, or stay the same.

12. My prediction: Labor retain with a slightly higher margin than what was recorded at the by-election.

13. I’m interested in seeing how the Cambodians here will vote. Dai’s message and movement which cuts very well into the Vietnamese community might not do so well for the Cambodians.

14. Don’t forget that Dai Le has lived in Cabramatta most her life, she only moved away after getting Married. Also don’t forget that Dai Le at the last by-election promised to move back to the area regardless of whether she won or lost. Subsequently she did move back to Mount Pritchard and she has picked up her whole family and now her son goes to the local school in Mount Pritchard. Her husband works from home and all her relatives live in the neighbourhood. How much more local can one get?

    Nick Lalich may have lived in Bonnyrigg and has a strong local connection, but in every other way his useless and his part of the problem of our state. It’s time for a change.

    Zaya Toma
    zaya@zayatoma.com.au

    P.S DLH, you have some good observations.

15. Also don’t forget that Dai Le is a member of the Liberal Party and will be required to toe the same party line as all the right-wing nutters who will be there.

16. Hamish – we are not all right wing nutters Hamish. I reckon your ALP have a fair few federally to be fair (Arbib, Bitar etc). Actually your PM has been put there by them.

17. The response that all members of the Liberal Party are “right wing nutters” defies all rational analysis – every contested pre-selection at the last round (we actually have proper rank and file selections in the Liberal Party) were won by the moderate candidates. We are not putting into parliament time serving duds – look at the members the ALP gives us in recent times in their safe seats.
    Such perjorative and ill-informed comments are one of the reasons the ALP, with its born to rule mentality, is about to get the biggest shallacking in the history of Australian politics.

18. Mod Liberals

    The are only great members of the ALP.

    The likes of Orthopoulous, Hays, Meagher, Stewert, Della “do you know who I am” Bosca, “Planning Minister” Tripodi, Obeid and Campbell will never be match by any past and future governments

19. Come on guys, this doesn’t have to be a bash up ALP/Lib session. Despite being a Liberal, I truly feel sorry for ALP members, because deep down in their hearts they must know that they are not too far from either oblivion or a permanent co-alition with the Greens. And there will be many very unhappy ALP members at that prospect, but it could be their only way to survive as a mainstream political party long term.

    To get this back on track, still reckon the ALP will hold onto this. This one is a bit too much.

20. Apparently this seat has become very physical with accusations that Liberal workers are being assaulted by ALP workers. Reported on 2UE at 2pm news, a worker of Dai Le was taking a photograph of Liberal posters being defaced by purported ALP Lalich workers. The Liberal worker suffered a broken nose, it is reported, in the incident. One of the Liberal workers in the seat has also apparently overheard Lalich saying that he feels that “the ALP will be lucky to win a seat in western Sydney”. This was reported to Liberal headquaters.

    I have no polling info on this seat however it may be worth a little investment given the above.

21. DB: thanks for the pity but oblivion? I can confirm that is certainly not the mood in the ALP. We know we’ve stuffed up, we’ve been mentally prepping for this defeat since the string of disastrous by-elections, and all the while the grassroot levels have been working at rebuilding.

    And be honest, you lot wouldn’t want the us gone. I know I wouldn’t if it was the other way around. A Holmes always needs a Moriarty. 😉

    I don’t know, I think it’s a bit early to judge. We can make a more reasoned judgment in four years’ time depending if the ALP can win back the majority of their former heartland (barring Balmain and Marrickville, which I’m afraid might be gone)

22. With vast local experience, I just can’t imagine Nick Lalich saying anything like that at all. Doesn’t sound right. Lalich is far too savvy for such a rank political error like that. Unless he’s preparing to work part-time at Lawrence White’s pawn shop in Fairfield again.

    Again, I’m not surprised with the violence. There are two sides to every story.

    Saw Barry in Cabramatta with Le on the news tonight. A bird did something to his arm that is very good luck.

    Zaya Toma, thanks for the kind words. Also, thanks for the clarification regarding Le’s residency. Give the Liberals a little more chance now, but still feel that it’s a Labor hold. Got to cut into Lalich’s Serbian base big-time, before you can think about winning.

23. DLH – you are possibly right and I personally didn’t hear it. It was probably wrong of me to say anything given it wasn’t first hand so I won’t do it again.

24. Labor ahead 51/49 on primary vote poll from weekend.

25. DB, no need to apologise. It was just surprising to think that Lalich may have said something like that. I’ll be willing to bet the difference in polling for Dai Le is in Wakeley, Bonnyrigg and St Johns Park. Lalich might yet be wishing that Bonnyrigg Heights was in Cabramatta, instead of Liverpool.

26. dovif: to be fair Campbell wasn’t bad

27. Crazedmongoose

    Sorry I went overboard with my replies to the Liberal party are right wing nuts

28. “I truly feel sorry for ALP members, because deep down in their hearts they must know that they are not too far from either oblivion or a permanent co-alition with the Greens. And there will be many very unhappy ALP members at that prospect, but it could be their only way to survive as a mainstream political party long term.”

    I strongly disagree. Think back four years when the most senior member of the Liberal Party was Campbell Newman and the papers were writing the death of the Liberal Party. Labor will come back and fade away and come back again. It is the nature of the political cycle.

29. Agreed Hamish. There is no place in Australia aside from maybe, MAYBE Tasmania, where I can see the Labor Party being anything other than one of the two main parties.

30. Maybe amend to except Tasmania and the ACT where it will be one of the three main parties.

31. Hamish – this is a new paradigm. The Greens are an increasingly strong 3rd force party. Only one of two things can happen:- either Labor improves its primary support (I am talking generally across the country) and distances itself from the Greens (which Gillard has done this week), in which case the support for the Greens MUST fall; or, Labor will have to merge eventually with the Greens to maximise their centre/left support and give them a better chance of winning elections. Effectively this would mean that The Greens contest some seats without the ALP, and the ALP contest others without the Greens.

    As with most Westminster political styles, in Australia, 50% of voters are centre/centre-right/right and 50% of voters are centre/centre-left/left. Historically with federal elections in this country, Australian centre/right parties have won 51.5% of the vote to the centre/left parties 48.5% since Federation. It won’t be possible for the Greens to continue growing their support and for the ALP to grow their support as well unless one believes in a long-term paradigm shift in the country to the left (and that is not presently happening and won’t while companies make profits).

    As an example, in good elections, if the Greens polled 15% primary support at elections, the ALP can never get anymore than 38% primary support (which would equate basically to a 53/47 split). If the Greens start to poll higher, the ALP will fall further. In bad elections for the ALP, if the Greens were able to get 17%, the ALP would get 29-30% (a 47/53 split). This is the ALP’s biggest concern and the reason behind the Faulkner/Hawke 2010 election review. Also, at least 10-15% of those Green votes will flow to the co-alition, which is exactly the same as when Liberal and National candidates contested the same seats and 15% of their votes preferenced across to the ALP.

    The co-alition don’t presently have the same issues. They did for a while with One Nation and this was a big concern at the time, however, that has largely gone away and at least 93% of the conservative vote goes to the co-alition.

    Mark my words: the co-alition will attempt to get OPV at federal elections whenever they become the next government. That will put more pressure on the ALP/Greens. Presently, I find it hard to see how the ALP federally can have control of the lower house when in all likelihood the Greens will win at least 4-5 lower house seats next time. And it may well be in the interests of the Greens to also support OPV to maximise their representation in the lower house. So I stand by my original observations.

32. DB, which lower house seats do you think the Greens will win? I can think of 4 – Melbourne, Sydney, Grayndler and Batman, but what would be the 5th?

    Back to Cabramatta, does anyone think the Greens will break 10% here? I think they have a chance, but this isn’t a natural Green area…

33. Matt, with only 4 candidates and with the exasperation of Labor voters, it’s almost certain that the Greens will break 10% here.

34. DB: I agree with most of that that, but you think if Labor guards their left flank well enough, on good years can’t they eat into Greens as well?

    I guess what I disagree with is that the Greens have a bedrock of 15%. Or even 10%. Disaffected progressive voters can come back to Labor if we get our act together.

35. Crazedmongoose

    The problem would be if the right wing part of the ALP sees the Greens controlling ALP policies, and leave in droves back to the Liberals, then the ALP and the Greens might both be left with 20% of the vote, which would be interesting

36. Crazedmongoose – the bedrock 10% which you refer to was about 6% only 5-6 years ago. It is growing. It is growing at the expense of the ALP primary vote (not the co-alition). Disaffected “progressive” (a joke term created by apologists) punters can come back to the ALP as you say, but only in very good years.

    Gillard is playing it correctly to shift as far as possible from the Greens, because the Greens are never going to support the co-alition ahead of the ALP. The problem then is that society generally in Australia is much further to the right than the left/centre wing of the ALP (e.g. only 20% union membership now exists), which will create more friction (and it is) within the ALP than it would the co-alition.

    The ALP needs to follow policies which are to the right of where they are genuinely comfortable (so they can capture middle ground as middle Australia is centre-right in attitudes), or else, they won’t last long – not in this country. Dovif is correct in what he says and market research would confirm that for the ALP.

37. My last paragraph refers to staying in government, not survival. The ALP will always exist, but probably not in its present form if their primary support continues to slide.

38. In support fo DB – The risk to the ALP from the Greens is clear if you consult the age profiles for party support – there is a consistent tendency for the Green vote to be highest in the under 34 age bracket. The issue here is of political socialisation. The way people vote in the first couple of elections is critical in influencing how they tend to vote for the rest of their life.

39. Have to agree with DB and Doug on this one. If you look at the demographic Newspolls from the middle of last year up until the election, you see some very dire trends for the ALP. In particular, they confirm what Doug is saying about support by age.

    Also, the high sociometric profile of Greens voters means that they probably aren’t ever going to switch to the ALP. If they ever change their politics, they’ll move to the Liberals, not the ALP.

40. For example, here’s the latest demographic Newspoll:

    http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/101201%20State%20&%20Demographic%20Analysis%20Oct%20-%20Dec.pdf

    Note that the Coalition is actually leading the 18-34 demographic. Not because they’re doing particularly well in the demographic (they’re recording 36%, which is about average for them in that age bracket), but because the Greens have cannibalised so much of the ALP’s primary vote.

41. Jim – good point and if they don’t preference (and I suspect this age group won’t) then it could be worse for the ALP than is suggested. We will only know on voting day.

42. Worth noting that after three days off prepoll 3000 people had gone. They actually ran out of voting forms at the Cabramatta Pre poll.

43. Rebecca – that is very good news for Dai Le.

44. Just wondering how that could be good news for Dai Le, DB? Have to admit it’s very unusual for that high of a number, however.

45. DLH – two reasons: one, this week we had a poll at 65/35 which means the ALP aren’t doing too flash and probably lost support in the past week, and two, prepolls tend to be in favour of the co-alition historically.

46. @DB – that isn’t a typo 65/35?

47. Okay I’m still going to go back a bit and disagree with the notion that the Labor party are now incapable of governing in their own right.

    At their current distribution with 15% of the vote, how many seats do you see Greens taking in the lower house at both state and federal elections?

    Cos I can’t see them taking more than 2-3 in state, and more than maybe 4-5 federally, and even that requires them to be doing exceedingly well whilst Labor under-performs.

    And here’s the thing: when the ALP wins, we generally win by margins of more than that in the lower house, both state and federal.

    I think the Greens will be a palpable third force in Australia that’s here to stay for a very long time, but not to a degree that the Labor Party stops being an alternative viable one party government.

48. Thanks DB. I still can’t see the Liberals winning this. If Le is within 10% of Lalich in Wakeley, St Johns Park and Bonnyrigg on Saturday, they can win. I just think that’s too tall an order.

49. Saw Dai Le on the Liberal ad last night, while watching Home and Away (No, it wasn’t my choice to watch it!). Smart move by the Libs. Could you imagine the ALP putting Lalich in a similar ad? …….Silence! Absolutely not!

    In fact, I’m surprised the Libs haven’t put an ad out saying this man is a friend of a political assassin in Phoung Ngo.

50. 6000 to pre poll now (and I have not even been yet!) That’s nearly 15% of the electorate! It is crazy.

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