Blacktown – NSW 2011

1. For those of you who are TV buffs, this is where the Australian remake of the hit UK comedy Love Thy Neighbour was set.
   I wonder who Eddie would be voting for…

2. So is John Robertson another parachuted in with no connection to Blacktown whatsoever? I think we deserve someone who lives locally this time dont you think? Standing for the people of Blacktown is his poster slogan but he has never lived or worked here! The Labor symbol on his posters are so tiny so as not to be noticed. His pride in the Labor party will be no greater for the pride he has in a place he doesnt even know. I think we deserve better and not have this ring in forced upon us simply because this is a safe Labor seat.

3. Well John Robertson has basically plastered the electorate with his photo, its got the word Labor on it but its tiny and high eye up, most people wouldn’t be focused enough to see it on account of driving.

   It’ll have one of two effects, I think “Hey, its that John Robertson guy, I’ll vote for him” or “Oh its that John Robertson guy again. . ” – either way I’m tired of looking at them every where I go and I imagine I’m not the only one.

   The Greens and Liberals combined have far less corflutes on display.

4. Wow, it’s got to the point that the ALP are push polling in this seat. Their tracking polling must be showing armageddon if they’re doing this here.

   http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/labors-dirty-tricks-in-campaign-poll/story-fn7q4q9f-1226008412489

5. In the longer term Robbo going down will be a blessing for the ALP. The last of the electricity debate poison will go with him. Keneally will stay as Opposition Leader pending the next Federal election when she will take Kingsford Smith. Then it will be Opposition Leader Ryan Park and long term rebuilding for the next Labor ministry in 2023

6. ‘Armageddon’? That’s a good word for it, actually. I was starting to make up new words like ‘pulverstructed’. In WA, there do not and have never existed seats with a margin in the mid-20’s for Labor (yeah, I know we’re full of tories, but still…). To me, it’s utterly unimaginable that a seat 10% safer than the safest seat in WA could be loseable. What did you idiots do to the left over there…?

7. The way that Paul Gibson was “forced to retire” is a disgrace to the ALP, just so they can make sure that they have an apparently-viable leader for the 2015 election. Unfortunately, I do believe that this is rusted on Labor Territory. I think that the Coalition will get the ALP here down to 54% but no futher.

8. Also running here are Wayne Olling for Save Our State, and Bernie Gesling for the CDP.

9. My prediction: Labor retain, 15-20% swing to Liberals.

10. Pulverstructed! I like it! You have a future in change management.

    I like to think of it as the ALP going backwards going forward.

    There’s a lot to do, but they’re heading in the right direction.

11. Hang on, that’s distinctly unfair to label this as push polling.

    Push polling refers to when supposedly independent companies, in the guise of doing opinion polls, tries to persuade voters.

    What the ALP is doing in Blacktown and all over is phonebanking by the ALP, which has a large element/basically is a persuasion method. It’s done by party volunteers and it’s not just polling, but also attempting to persuade.

12. In my opinion, Blacktown is nowhere as safe as the margin suggests. I expect Labor to hold but with a dramatically reduced margin. It may even become a marginal seat.

13. jasonr: mate, I don’t think anybody thinks there’ll be a single safe ALP seat left after this election

14. Labor will hold this but probably just.

15. I would say Wayne Olling the SOS Candidate will skim a couple of % from the Greens and catch some of the Labor leakage, though he is relying on his name to win votes, second hand information passed onto me said that he won’t be running much of a campaign but he is a well known Environmentalist in the area, apparently he’s also quite a conservative Christian so its unusual to have a candidate representing both of those things. He has run as an Independent many times.

    SOS is running high profile candidates in a few seats trying to get someone elected in the legislative council.

16. I strongly doubt that Blacktown will go. As others have indicated, Labor is putting a lot of resources into the electorate, compared to say, Bankstown and Liverpool, where a bare bones, cheap effort is being run. I pass Robertson’s election office (which was a 2nd hand book and CD shop, until very recently) nearly every day, directly across from the station. He has a strong level of personal staff helping him with the campaign, from what I have seen as well.

    The Liberal presence is reasonable (they don’t have the cheap signage, like they do in Hawkesbury), but it’s massively dwarfed by the ALP. Indeed, the Liberal candidate was on Alan Jones, recently. I’m thinking a swing of anywhere from 10-17%. The boundaries of the electorate just don’t favour change at all; you would have to be a starry-eyed optimist to expect massive swings in Doonside, Woodcroft and Marayong. Robertson might be a contemptible character, and I do think that the ALP should have put him in Mount Druitt, rather than Blacktown, but not even he will lose this.

17. Robertson won’t lose this seat, Centre-Unity has thrown everything into this seat.

    Few weeks ago there was a door knocking session which may as well have been a coronation. State members, union organizers, rank and file, young labor right, the whole works. Even Karl Bitar was there.

18. Much bigger swing here than in Toongabbie, but the ALP will hold.

19. Apparently Labor has been polling in the last few days (not the ‘push-polling’ mentioned earlier) and are desperate for preferences.

20. jasonr – may I suggest they are jumping at shadows a bit. Yes they will need some preferences I suspect, but not that many to worry greatly. The should win by around 5% here.

21. I agree that this seat will show a huge swing. I am not quite sure whether it can make 22.4%, although the ALP must be worried about this given their polling.

22. I have heard that internal Labor polling is putting the co-alition ahead in this seat. Keneally apparently has mustered plenty of funds and support (and may be even accused of breaching the maximum spend thresholds per seat here). There is no Liberal polling at this point, but they might now look at it given that all seats under 10% are gone except for Monaro and perhaps Maitland.

    Let’s be clear. If this seat goes, the ALP WILL be represented by a soccer team.

23. Story in the telegraph this morning confirming internal Labor polling showing we would have lost it two weeks ago.

    I think Robbo will win this, personally. That is a massive margin for anyone to overcome, even at a byelection.

    And you can bet your house on the fact that the NSW Right faction will have every young labor hack, staffer and right wing union official in NSW doorknocking in the seat if they think they’re going to lose it. If they don’t have them there already.

24. Ooh, bad ballot draw for Robbo, dead last.

25. Ahahaha, jeeez, what happens if we lose this? Dick Amery as leader of the opposition anybody?

26. Every Labor hack is already out here, over the past few months I’v gotten something like 10 advertisements about Robbo in the mail, they’re going really hard for Blacktown. Its hilarious, the most recent one said ‘JOHN LIVES WITH HIS WIFE AND FAMILY IN WOODCROFT’ – neglects to mention he moved there last week or there abouts.

    If anyone is wondering what the phone calls from Robertsons office are about, its basically “Can I ask you about your voting intentions” and “do you have anything feedback for the Labor Candidate, John” – thats it, or at least all I got asked, they aren’t asking people to vote for Labor or putting down any other party or candidate.

    I think that the Liberals are selling themselves short in this seat, its a seat they really could be winning but from a friend in the Liberal Party it seems Siljeg is just doing the rounds at church events and elderly homes. I don’t like to stereotype but I would guess those are two communities that would already have a strong Liberal vote.

    For the record, haven’t heard a peep from the CDP. Greens have some corflutes up in peoples yards and have been letterboxing in some places. Wayne Olling (SOS) is running a minimalist campaign trying to get their upper house guy lead elected, they’re doing that in a few seats.

27. I’d agree that by marginal seat standards the Liberals are selling themselves short here, especially in comparison to Smithfield. By safe seat standards, Siljeg’s doing a reasonable job. I don’t think any reasonable political observer thought that Blacktown would be in play. Hence the relatively decent, but tame campaign from the Liberals. They’ll need to step it up over the next two weeks.

    The hacks have been in force for weeks. Even Paul Gibson has been dusted off. Maybe they need to dust off a true Blacktown icon in John Aquilina?

28. There are two independents running here, Greg Coulter and Louise Kedwell. Kedwell was the One Nation candidate for Chifley at the 2010 federal election. I didn’t readily find any other information on them.

29. Blacktown a chance of going? Jeez.

30. There are some dirty tricks in this seat according to Liberal workers and it is being reported in the media.

    A poll was done on the weekend showing this seat to be 50/50. Only a sample of 200 however.

31. 50/50 – wtf? (where’s this from) 22.4% margin. Libs couldn’t. Could they?

    Is Keating out there doorknocking as part of the right? Remember the letter:

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/11/25/banshee-on-a-rampage-the-full-keating-text/

32. Siljeg was on Alan Jones again this morning about this. The trouble was just outside Blacktown Station, which is around where Robertson’s campaign office is. Told from a source that bystanders were calling for the volunteers from Labor to leave the Liberals alone, that’s how bad it was. Two sides to every story, however.

    Got a flyer from Robertson’s apparatchiks ths morning at Blacktown Station. You couldn’t avoid them. They were at the entrance from the bus bays, which is where I came in from. Also, they were at the entrance from the Richmond Line and at the front of the station on both sides heading from Main St and Westpoint.

    The slyer trumpeted Robertson’s ‘achievement’ in getting a free bus shuttle around Blacktown. I saw it in action this afternoon. A grand total of one passenger. Well done, John! Interesting that the flyer was authorised by the LHMU Liquor and Hospitality Division in Parramatta, not by ALP Head Office. Is this one of Paul Gibson’s unions that he was notorious for getting a lot of fund-raising for?

    Overall, I doubt that it would have changed many votes.

33. Saw some of Siljeg’s people on the ground at Westpoint this afternoon. First time, other than a few signs that I have seen any real effort put into Blacktown by the Liberals. Robertson’s people are really, really hard to avoid.

34. You’d have to call this a Labor hold by now actually. There’s only so much state and political trends can do in the face of campaigns with such a big disparity in strength.

35. Hmmm couldn’t all that effort backfire then…gives the disgruntled a clear target to shoot down

36. Could quite possibly, Peterjk23. There has been a lot of Robertson overkill in the electorate, and the sight of his lackeys smoking and generally doing nothing other than handing the latest flyer about Robertson, his ‘victories’ for Blacktown and how he lives in Woodcroft is wearing. I, for one, hope Robertson loses on Saturday, so the election HQ just outside the station might be used for something more useful, other than a hangout for Robertson’s lackeys. I find it amazing that the HQ hasn’t been trashed by the junkies and no-hopers that populate that strip yet.

    At the moment, calling a narrow Labor hold, but with no confidence.

37. Lets put it this way.

    I’v been working here and in Toongabbie with the Greens, the only people so far who have told me they will be voting for Labor have been wearing orange shirts with “JOHN ROBERTSON” in big letters, or lived in Toongabbie. That isn’t to say that no one is voting Labor, just no one wants to admit to it in public. I even had a Labor Member come up to me the other day at the Wow Blacktown Festival, he just wanted to tell me that he isn’t even going to vote for Labor. The way it looks to me is that people are avoiding the Labor brand (duh) but also people that know about how John Robertson came to where he is now aren’t too keen to support him (See: Paul Keatings banshee on a rampage letter). I think had it of been any other Candidate (you know, the kind that didn’t move here last month) Labor would have a better chance, but as it stands I really don’t know how this will end, I have a feeling that the Liberals will creep in and that Labor has spent themselves into a hole but we won’t know for sure till the votes are counted.

    Preferences aren’t looking very bright for Labor in Blacktown either.

    someone has said that Wayne Olling is directing them to the Liberals but I don’t know how accurate that is and the CDP are directing preferences to the Liberals in most seats, as far as I know Blacktown isn’t an exception. I have no idea what either of the Independents are doing, Kedwell was the One Nation candidate for Chifley, don’t know anything about Coulter.

38. Whoops, that was meant to be a link to this (http://www.electionleaflets.org.au/leaflets/812/) – Greens are exhausting here. Instead I ended up not saying that and underlining the entire paragraph.

    Point being, no good news for Labor as far as preferences are concerned.

39. I’ll dare say any other candidate could be running as a Labor candidate and we’d be talking about Blacktown as one of those definite holds for Labor. If these preferences go anywhere near reported, Robertson’s going to need a lead on primaries of around 4-5% at a minimum to hold off Siljeg. This is looking more and more marginal by the hour.

    I’d love to see the Orange Brigade’s look on Saturday night, if Robertson loses. Maybe I can walk around Blacktown Station in fear of charities and lowlifes, rather than Robertson volunteers!

40. The margin is too big. Aussies will vote for names and faces they personally can identify with eg the name ‘Robertson’.
    I predict that Labor will win easily.
    The growth of neo-conservative Catholic gen y and of Prot evangelicalism and of culture wars is stronger in The Hills district rather than in Blacktown and I say Deo Gratias for that.
    long live blockey blokes and blockey versions of left of centre unionism. More of it I say.
    The only caveat I think is important is more active participation by union members to have transferees to the parliamentary wing do as we want them to do.

    Liberals and their agenda doesn’t rate.

41. Totally disagree with you, Michael. From personal experience having worked in Blacktown for a while now, it’s not the predominantly Aussie mix that you describe. It’s extremely multicultural, and has been proven to be pretty harmonious from my observations.

    There is no way that Labor will hold this ‘easily’. Despite a very tame campaign from the Liberals, the wrong candidate has been parachuted in. This is very marginal at the moment, at best.

    As for the religious aspects, that might be true in parts of the Hills Shire (Hillsong, for example), but you couldn’t describe places like Kenthurst, Annangrove, Beaumont Hills and Rouse Hill, as being bible belts, for example. Churches just are not prevalent in that part of the world. I’d argue the electorate of Smithfield as a Catholic bible belt, than the Hills Shire. As for Blacktown, seems relatively balanced to me, religiously.

    I’m a bit worried about your last paragraph about Unionism and the apparent dictating terms to members who make it to Parliament. Sounds ridiculous and idealistic to me.

42. DLH – I’d take Michael Webb’s comments on his love for his continually dying union movement and his penchant for religious zeallotism with a grain of salt frankly. However, I do suspect that his comment on the Liberal candidate as having a non-English surname as being a potential reason for not alluring votes among older anglo voters will hit the mark, which will make it more difficult for a change in Blacktown.

43. Sportsbet shows Robertson as a heavy favourite to win this one now!

44. Aquilina isn’t an anglo surname and they voted for him as the Member for Blacktown on three occasions, along with his election to Council twice. I understand your point, DB, but I feel that it won’t make much of a difference on Saturday. If anything, it’s the Liberals’ tame campaign which will cost them, if they don’t win.

45. DLH – okay, but in any case, you’d never expect them to win Blacktown….ever. It is a core ALP seat as Pittwater would be for the Libs.

46. I’d trust Sportsbet’s odds before a Liberal any day of the week.

47. Dear ‘DB’,

    Your false statements about me are tied in with your coward’s castle use of initials rather than your full name.

    Must be proud of yourself ‘db’.

48. Not as proud as every person who hates the over-extending nature of some union members and then sees John Robertson actually lose in Blacktown!

    My major problem with him is his blatant hypocrisy. He virtually destroys the career of one well-meaning ALP Premier (Iemma) over the original offer for privatisation (which was a stunning offer and, if taken would have gone a very long way to fix up everything else in NSW) then sits back and watches as Kennelly and Roozendaal sell off for an offer where we virtually get nothing. If he cared about this state, he would have galvanised the entire union movement to fight that privatisation as well!

49. Hawkeye: well, as an ALP member I’m damn opposed to the manner in which electricity was flogged off by Roozendale and think proroguing the parliament was a stupid thing to do, but let’s get one thing straight here:

    Iemma wanted to sell the poles, wires and generators for 16 billion

    Roozendale is selling only the retailers for 4.3 billion or whatever

    And I would agree that the government has no business running uncompetitive retailers. And so does Robertson and this is a view he has held even during Iemma’s proposed sale. What Robertson and ETU which he headed at the time was concerned with with Iemma’s sale was the sale of generators and transmission which made something like 12,000 ETU jobs vulnerable.

    So I wouldn’t say it’s hypocrisy in that sense, though I am no Robertson fan.

50. In response to Ben. Reject the rumours Ben. No-one has approached me about preferences and suspect it is because they know what the answer would be. Like Paul Taylor for The Greens, I am not recommending preferences to anyone – just a 1 above the line.

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