ALP 22.4%
Incumbent MP
Paul Gibson, since 1999. Previously Member for Londonderry 1988-1999.
Geography
Western Sydney. The seat covers central parts of the City of Blacktown, including the suburbs of Blacktown, Doonside, Woodcroft and Marayong.
History
The electoral district of Blacktown has existed continuously since 1941. With the exception of the 1959 election, it has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1941 by the ALP’s Frank Hill, who held it until 1945. The by-election was won by John Freeman, who held the seat until 1959. In 1959 Blacktown was redistributed into a marginal seat, and Freeman retired after failing to win preselection for the new seat of Merrylands.
The Liberal Party’s Alfred Dennis won Blacktown in 1959, but the next redistribution in 1962 largely reversed the changes, making Blacktown stronger for the ALP. Dennis lost preselection for the new safe Liberal seat of The Hills, and ran for the seat unsuccessfully as an independent.
Jim Southee won Blacktown for the ALP in 1962. He held the seat until 1971, when he moved to the new seat of Mount Druitt, which he held until his retirement in 1973.
Gordon Barnier won Blacktown in 1971. At the 1981 election, he lost preselection to John Aquilina.
Aquilina became a minister for the final two years of the Labor state government from 1986 to 1988. In 1991 he moved to Riverstone, which he has held ever since. He served as a minister from 1995 to 2003 and as Speaker from 2003 to 2007.
In 1991, the seat of Wentworthville was abolished, and Pam Allan, who had won Wentworthville in 1988, moved to Blacktown. She served as a minister in the first term of the Carr government, and held Blacktown until 1999. In 1999 she returned to a recreated Wentworthville, holding it until 2007.
Blacktown was won in 1999 by Paul Gibson, a former rugby league player and Member for Londonderry since 1988. Gibson was appointed a minister following the 2007 state election, but never took office, as allegations of an assault sixteen years earlier against his former partner saw him stood down.
Candidates
- Wayne Olling (Save Our State)
- Karlo Siljeg (Liberal)
- Bernie Gesling (Christian Democratic Party)
- Greg Coulter (Independent)
- Louise Kedwell (Independent)
- Paul Taylor (Greens)
- John Robertson (Labor)
Political situation
Blacktown is a safe Labor seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Gibson | ALP | 25,698 | 61.7 | -1.6 |
| Mark Spencer | LIB | 8,649 | 20.8 | +1.2 |
| Bernie Gesling | CDP | 2,965 | 7.1 | +2.1 |
| John Forrester | GRN | 2,008 | 4.8 | +0.7 |
| Donald McNaught | AAFI | 1,262 | 3.0 | +1.3 |
| F Ivor | IND | 678 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Bill Jiang | UNI | 419 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Gibson | ALP | 27,192 | 72.4 | -2.5 |
| Mark Spencer | LIB | 10,362 | 27.6 | +2.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Blacktown have been divided between the north, centre and south of the seat. The ALP’s vote varied from 74% in the centre to 70.6% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN % | CDP % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 4.5 | 6.9 | 74.2 | 14,190 | 34.0 |
| South | 4.5 | 7.3 | 72.3 | 13,207 | 31.7 |
| North | 4.7 | 7.6 | 70.6 | 7,133 | 17.1 |
| Other votes | 6.1 | 6.7 | 70.2 | 7,149 | 17.2 |
Saw some new signs outside Robertson’s office today and on Sunnyholt Road. ‘Gibbo’s backing John Robertson!’. When I saw this, I had to laugh. Honestly, John Aquilina would have been better. There’s no bigger presence in Blacktown than him, not Gibbo. An endorsement by Aquilina could make the difference.
Closer examination of the sign indicated that this was authorised by the ETU and Bernie Riordan, so one must presume that Robertson has called in a few favours to ensure money’s being spent, but not by the Labor Party.
Michael Webb – whilst not appreciating them, you are entitled to your comments. Frankly, I don’t have any personal issue with you. I do however believe that your use this service totally inappropriately and despite Mr Raue’s regular past requests of you to desist with your ‘explanantions’ on ‘we are’ and ‘they’re not’ DLP, I have noted that it hasn’t ceased (your comments 2 days ago on 3 seats prove this to be true). I want you to respect the wishes of Mr Raue or go away and do something else.
If I were to provide by real name Mr Webb, I would not be able to provide the information that I have and that I believe many readers thoroughly enjoy at this excellent site. As it is, I have already been rapped over the knuckles twice for some of the information I have provided at this site.
I wish you all of the best on Saturday with your party. If your candidates are anything like you then I pray for them to get the level of support they deserve. I will be watching with a keen interest Mr Webb. Very keen interest indeed. All the best.
My apologies, Wayne. I was told that you were directing them to the Liberals by someone from the Liberal Party, so I took it to be pretty reliable. Again, my apologies and good luck!
No problem Ben.
Well, the election is tomorrow and this seems less certain to me now.
I met Greg Coulter the day before last, he is directing voters to exhaust and he does have a small campaign team, I think he’ll get a couple of %. Kedwells how to vote cards are not directing voters to preference either. As Wayne Olling has confirmed, SOS is not directing preferences. The Christian Democratic Party appears to be the only party suggesting that you vote 2 Liberal. Looks like everyone else is exhausting.
Less confident that this will be a Liberal win.
I can guarantee that there will not be a change of Government tomorrow, my wife will still be the leader in my household!
.
Calling a Labor hold. Robbo’s saturation strategy has worked a treat. Go anywhere in Blacktown, and instead of seeing junkies and bludgers on the forecourt outside the station, you see the Orange Brigade, brought to you by Robbo and his good mate, Gibbo. The Orange Brigade, who between them, seem to have an IQ of about five and are a quasi-intellectual version of the junkies and bludgers who frequent the area. Instead of ‘go and get……(well, you know the rest)’, you get stunned mullet silence, while they’re giving their latest version of the Demtel Man’s ‘victories’ for Blacktown. Did I forget that Robbo now lives in Woodcroft? Yes, that’s right. Give Robbo a clap. Bet he ran out of detergent to clean the joint out, when he moved in.
As for the Liberals, what a waste. Siljeg’s the sort of bloke that would be best at church on Sunday reading the Responsorial Psalm. Certainly, his campaigning has been as inspiring, as a monotone homily from a priest on a wet Sunday. Still, despite those obvious problems, he’ll force Robbo to preferences and look like a hero in the process, despite such a lame, tame campaign. If there was a prize for lack of assertiveness, he’d win my vote every single time.
When I next go to Blacktown on Wednesday, Robbo won’t be ‘standing up for Blacktown’! He’ll be chasing Barry’s tail, while thanking his lucky stars that the inept campaigning of the Liberals saved him from the most just defeat of any poltician that I have seen in my lifetime.
Mark my words. Robbo to win and to win easily.
Go Robbo !
As expected, Robertson hangs on. I think my last post above spells out my feelings about the outcome. It could have been so much better for the Liberals.
I always felt that the margin here was just too big, in a working class area. Same with Kiera.
A pretty solid result for Labor here. All the booths, with the exception of a small booth in Kings Langley, and a total pounding in Kings Park (adjoining suburb to Kings Langley) held solidly for Robertson on 2PP. Doonside, in particular, was where Labor’s vote was strongest. There is no way, based on the current geography of the electorate that the Liberals can ever win here.
Siljeg and the Liberals deserve credit for forcing Labor to preferences here, but given the results in surrounding electorates, the result was very poor and reflected what was a lame and lacklustre campaign. I read that Siljeg wants to run again in 2015. Hate to say it, but if he does it, he’ll become the next Bob Robertson (who ran for the Liberals in the 1991, 1995 and 1999 state elections in Smithfield), who achieved what was at the time, a high-water mark for the Liberals in the Fairfield LGA with a massive swing against Scully in 1991, and then saw his vote deteriorate over the next two elections quite rapidly. I still remember the yellow signs from my childhood. If I was Siljeg, I’d be thinking differently about running again. He’s had his chance, and blown it.