LIB 10.5%
Incumbent MP
Wayne Merton, since 1991. Previously Member for Carlingford 1988-1991.
Geography
North-western Sydney. Baulkham Hills covers southwestern parts of the Hills Shire, and small parts of the City of Parramatta. The seat covers the suburbs of Bella Vista, Baulkham Hills, Carlingford and North Rocks.
History
The seat of Baulkham Hills has existed since 1991. It has always been a safe Liberal seat. Prior to 1991, much of the same area had been covered by Carlingford from its creation in 1988 to its abolition in 1991.
Carlingford was won in 1988 by Liberal candidate Wayne Merton. Merton then won the new seat of Baulkham Hills in 1991, and has held it ever since. He served as a minister in the state Coalition government from 1992 to 1993.
While there have been two seats in the Hills since 1988, and they have both been solid Liberal seats, the boundaries of those seats have shifted. The other seat in the area was called The Hills until 2007, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.
Candidates
- Mick Hollins (Greens)
- David Elliott(Liberal)
- Tony Hay (Labor)
- Kaia Thorpe (Christian Democratic Party)
Political situation
Baulkham Hills is a safe Liberal seat.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Wayne Merton | LIB | 23,153 | 51.5 | +5.9 |
Tony Hay | ALP | 13,940 | 31.0 | -5.3 |
Mark Rodowicz | GRN | 3,359 | 7.5 | +0.7 |
Godwin Goh | CDP | 2,173 | 4.8 | +0.4 |
Yan Li | UNI | 1,241 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
Gregory Piol | AAFI | 1,046 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Wayne Merton | LIB | 24,870 | 60.5 | +6.5 |
Tony Hay | ALP | 16,211 | 39.5 | -6.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Baulkham Hills have been divided into three areas: the north of the seat (including Bella Vista, Crestwood and Kellyville), the centre (including Baulkham Hills and Winston Hills) and the south (Northmead and North Rocks).
The Liberal Party’s margin varied from 57% in the south to 62% in the north.
Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Central | 7.0 | 59.7 | 17,334 | 38.6 |
North | 6.8 | 62.2 | 10,868 | 24.2 |
South | 8.7 | 57.2 | 8,566 | 19.1 |
Other votes | 8.2 | 62.3 | 8,154 | 18.2 |
Also in the field here is Kaia Thorpe for the CDP.
My prediction: Liberal retain, 8-12% swing.