Barwon – NSW 2011

NAT 6.0% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Kevin Humphries, since 2007.

Geography
North-western NSW. Barwon covers a large part of Western NSW, including Cobar, Moree, Narrabri, Bourke, Condobolin, Gilgandra and Nyngan. It covers all of Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Cobar, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Moree Plains, Walgett, Warren and Warrumbungle local government areas. It also covers parts of Lachlan, Narromine and Narrabri local government areas.

History
An electoral district named Barwon has existed since 1927. A previous incarnation existed from 1894 to 1904. Barwon has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since 1950.

The seat was first won by the Nationalist Party in 1927. The ALP held the seat from 1930 to 1932, and the Country Party held the seat from 1932 to 1940.

In 1940, the ALP’s Roy Heferen won the seat. He held it for the next decade. He was disendorsed for the 1950 election after he was suspected of having broken with the ALP and voted against the party line in a ballot to fill a vacancy in the Legislative Council in 1949. He ran as an independent, and the seat was won by the Country Party.

Geoff Crawford won the seat for the Country Party in 1950. He held the seat for eight terms, retiring in 1976. He also served as Minister for Agriculture from 1968 to 1975.

Wal Murray won the seat for the National Country Party in 1976. He became the party’s deputy leader in 1981, serving until 1984. In 1985, he was elected leader of the NSW National Party. He became Deputy Premier when the Coalition won power in 1988, and served in the role until 1993. He retired at the 1995 election.

Ian Slack-Smith held Barwon for the National Party from 1995 until his retirement in 2007. He was succeeded in 2007 by Kevin Humphries. He currently serves as Shadow Minister for Healthy Lifestyles, Aboriginal Affairs and Shadow Minister for Western New South Wales.

Candidates

Political situation
Barwon is a very safe seat in a contest between the Coalition and Labor. In 2007, Humphries was challenged by a strong independent candidate in Tim Horan. With no independent candidate running, the Nationals will easily retain this seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kevin Humphries NAT 17,591 44.3 -8.1
Tim Horan IND 11,607 29.2 +29.2
Meryl Dillon ALP 7,732 19.5 -9.0
Darren Bodell GRN 1,180 3.0 +0.5
Heath Wilson CDP 906 2.3 +2.3
Les Paul IND 696 1.8 +1.8

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kevin Humphries NAT 19,021 56.0
Tim Horan IND 14,950 44.0

Booth breakdown
Booths in Barwon have been divided into four areas:

  • North-East – Moree Plains and Narrabri
  • North-West – Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett
  • South-East – Coonamble, Gilgandra, Narromine, Warren and Warrumbungle
  • South-West – Bogan, Cobar and Lachlan
Polling booths in Barwon at the 2007 state election. South-East in green, North-East in yellow, South-West in orange, North-West in blue.
Voter group ALP % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
North-East 16.6 55.8 11,679 29.4
South-East 20.1 50.0 11,215 28.2
North-West 26.6 51.7 4,325 10.9
South-West 25.9 61.5 3,551 8.9
Other votes 16.3 64.8 8,942 22.5
Two-party-preferred votes in Barwon at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Barwon at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Coonabarabran and Gilgandra at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Coonabarabran and Gilgandra at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Narrabri at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Narrabri at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Moree at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Moree at the 2007 state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Is that 92% Labor booth in the top right-hand corner a typo? Seems WAY out of kilter with the rest of the seat.

  3. Big indigenous population in this seat but still ultra-safe for the right. US southern style racial voting. Once Narrabri was a Labor railway town but that was a long long time ago.

  5. Yes, I think that’s an indigenous community there near Boggabilla. I’ve seen a similar effect re 2CP votes in some other indigenous community booths too.

    Tim Horan was the Mayor of Coonamble I think. He then ran for the federal seat of Parkes in 2007 as well. You’d have to say he did well for someone who was the Mayor of one of the less highly-populated shires in the electorate.

    The notional 2PP margin here is 18.9%.

  7. Only 3 candidates standing here, one of only two electorates with so small a field. The Greens generally do well in 3-way contests: I’d say about 3~4% more.

    I’d say the current election environment coupled with the strict funding rules has discouraged any independents from standing. That’s disappointing.

  8. Whilst the requirements of the election funding regime are quite onerous, especially for independents, I think the funding rules actually advantage genuine community independents, and I think one of the aims of the negotiations between Labor and the Greens over the legislation was to ensure fairness for independents. Think about it, if you get 4% of the vote you are automatically entitled to $10,000 reimbursement for claimable election expenses – that’s a great start if you’ve got good local support. At state elections 4% is a relatively easy threshold for any candidate with genuine community support to get across. It’s only folks like John Tate, who’ve relied on massive corporate donations, who are crying foul.

    Only two of the candidates are actually from the electorate. Labor’s late starter Patrick Massarani has a Sydney address listed with the NSWEC.

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