ALP 25.4%
Incumbent MP
Tony Stewart, since 1999. Previously Member for Lakemba 1995-1999.
Geography
South-Western Sydney. The seat covers parts of the City of Bankstown, including the suburbs of Bankstown, Georges Hall, Bass Hill, Yagoona, Mount Lewis and Greenacre.
History
The electoral district of Bankstown has existed since 1927, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1927 by James McGirr. He had first won election to the Legislative Assembly as the sole Labor member for Cootamundra in 1922, succeeding his brother Greg, who had moved to a seat in Sydney. In 1925, James moved to the seat of Cumberland, which covered much of what is now Western Sydney.
In 1927, proportional representation was replaced by single-member districts, and McGirr won the new seat of Bankstown. He became a minister when the ALP gained power in 1941. In 1947, Premier William McKell was appointed Governor-General by Prime Minister Chifley, and McGirr was elected Labor leader, and Premier.
McGirr had a difficult period as Premier, losing a standoff with his party organisation over the disendorsement of Labor members, and then losing his majority at the 1950 election, forcing him to rely on the support of ex-Labor independents. He moved from the seat of Bankstown to the new seat of Liverpool at the 1950 election. He resigned as Premier and Member for Liverpool in 1952.
McGirr was succeeded in Bankstown by Spence Powell in 1950. He held the seat until his retirement in 1962.
Nick Kearns won Bankstown in 1962. He served briefly as a frontbencher in the Labor opposition before the party won power in 1976, but never served as a minister. He died in 1980.
The 1980 by-election was won by Ric Mochalski, also of the ALP. He was re-elected in 1981 and 1984, but he was forced to resign in 1986 due to charges against him to do with the collapse of a property trust in which he was involved.
The by-election in early 1987 was won by ALP candidate Doug Shedden, a Bankstown councillor. He held the seat until his retirement in 1999.
At the 1999 election, a redistribution saw the seat of Hurstville abolished. The Member for Hurstville, Morris Iemma, moved to Lakemba, while Member for Lakemba Tony Stewart moved to Bankstown.
Stewart was re-elected in 2003 and 2007. Stewart served as a minister for two months in late 2008, but was removed after he was accused of harrassing a staff member.
Candidates
- Tanya Mihailuk (Labor)
- Bill Chahine (Liberal)
- Rebecca Kay (Independent)
- Edmond Taouk (Independent)
- Zarif Abdulla (Christian Democratic Party)
- Richard Phillips (Independent)
- Malikeh Michels (Greens)
Political situation
Bankstown is a very safe Labor seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Stewart | ALP | 25,671 | 64.2 | +2.7 |
| Mark Majewski | LIB | 7,977 | 20.0 | +2.5 |
| Simon Brooks | GRN | 2,142 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| Zarif Abdulla | CDP | 1,897 | 4.7 | +1.6 |
| Shawky Salah | UNI | 1,444 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Lynette Rogers | AAFI | 845 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Stewart | ALP | 27,234 | 75.4 | -1.0 |
| Mark Majewski | LIB | 8,870 | 24.6 | +1.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bankstown have been divided into four areas: Bass Hill in the west, Greenacre in the east, and Bankstown and Yagoona in the centre of the seat.
The ALP vote was around 80% in Bankstown and Greenacre, around 75% in Yagoona, and less than 65% in Bass Hill.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bankstown | 5.3 | 81.2 | 10,835 | 27.1 |
| Greenacre | 5.4 | 79.6 | 9,154 | 22.9 |
| Bass Hill | 5.1 | 64.4 | 7,568 | 18.9 |
| Yagoona | 4.5 | 75.6 | 6,105 | 15.3 |
| Other votes | 6.6 | 73.5 | 6,314 | 15.8 |
Mr Bill Chahine is the Liberal candidate
Rebecca Kay is running here as an independent.
A couple of local stories I came across from this electorate this week.
Plenty of mud-slinging with the ALP calling on the Liberals to disendorse their candidate over an alleged conflict of interest, and allegations that Rebecca Kay was pressured to withdraw her candidacy:
http://express.whereilive.com.au/news/story/rebecca-kay-claims-dirty-tactics-by-bill-chahine/
And speculation Tony Stewart may stand for re-election as an Independent:
http://express.whereilive.com.au/news/story/tony-stewart-sidesteps-rumours-he-will-run-as-bankstown-independent/
Another candidate listed elsewhere is Zarif Abdulla for the CDP.
And incidentally Ben, the 2007 2CP count is wrong on this one too.
My prediction: Labor retain: 15-20% swing.
My prediction: Labor retain, 10-15% swing. Andrew Elder apparently thinks this’ll be close, but I can’t really see it happening – while Liberal party relations with Asians are improving, they still hate Muslims. And a seat like this will probably stay pretty solid for Labor.
The day this goes liberal is the day hell freezes over.
The Libs have a weak candidate here who has been in the local press a lot about questionable development deals. Tanya Mihailuk is a good candidate being the popular mayor of Bankstown. I expect this to be a below-average swing and perhaps Labor’s safest seat post-election.
Agree with morgieb entirely. Adjacent East Hills to the south (which is predominantly an anglo seat and wealthier in parts) will probably go to the Libs though for the first time ever. But from my experience, Andrew Elder is quite often on the money. I must say though, I don’t think Liberals ‘hate’ Muslims (I am sure it wasn’t intended to be that way). I’d suggest most Liberals would just want closer integration between our anglo and arabic society.
Hamish – no way possible that Bankstown will be Labor’s safest seat. It could possibly be third (though I doubt it), but Lakemba and Auburn will always win hands down based on their community profiles. And if we were talking ideologically, both Liverpool and Mt Druitt would also be safer for the ALP before Bankstown. I’d align Bankstown ideologically to something like Blacktown and Fairfield which I would place on the next tier of safety for the ALP. I think you are way off mark though in this election with that call. But let’s wait and see.
The two other candidates here are independent Edmond Taouk, who has a background in community broadcasting, and is reportedly seeking legal advice after the Labor candidate accused him of having links to property developers.
The other candidate, Richard Phillips, is from the unregistered Socialist Equality Party.
I think most of the pundits have got Bankstown wrong. If it is retained by Labor (which I think it may lose) it will be with the slimmest majority. I like the way people write others off. Its as if they know something that the voting public does not. Bankstown will be a key seat to watch, and the arrogance of the Mayor will take even more votes away from Labor. Bring it on!
Oh and by the way, Tania Michaluk is not ‘a popularly elected Mayor’ but rather elected from among the Labor Councillors who dominate the council till September next year.
Unfortunately, a vacant rhetoric doesn’t mean a concise prediction so Salvatore, I think you are way off the money.
I drive through here very regularly (my gf lives nearby) and this is an area where the ethnic community haven’t swung around, compared to seats like Ryde, Maroubra, East Hills and the massive Italian community up on the Northern Beaches. This seat will be retained by the ALP with a margin over 5%. It is part of the true-believer belt that includes Lakemba, Auburn, Fairfield and Mt Druitt.
Bankstown is Labor’s second safest seat now, so I was pretty close. Given the high base, Liverpool didn’t swing too much. Paul Lynch must be pretty liked out there.
Hamish – yes you were right. Good call.