ALP 3.7% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Verity Firth, since 2007.
Geography
Inner Sydney. Balmain covers the entirety of Leichhardt local government area, including Balmain, Leichhardt, Lilyfield, Annandale and Rozelle, as well as Haberfield in the City of Ashfield and Glebe in the City of Sydney.
History
Balmain has existed as an electoral district in various forms since 1880. In that time it has covered a variety of different areas all around the Balmain peninsula. The original seat was created as a single-member district in 1880.
Back in the 19th century, districts would gain extra MPs if the population in the area grew, instead of experiencing regular redistributions. Balmain quickly gained extra MLAs, gaining a second in 1882, a third in 1885 and a fourth in 1889. Ironically the four-seat district of 1889 bore a close resemblance to the modern seat’s boundaries.
In 1894, Balmain was abolished and replaced by the single-member districts of South Balmain, North Balmain, Leichhardt and Annandale.
In 1904, Balmain was re-created when Balmain Southand Balmain Northwere merged. It elected a Liberal MP in 1904, but in 1907 it was won by the ALP’s John Storey in 1907. He had previously held Balmain Northfrom 1901 to 1904.
The NSW Labor Party split in 1916 over conscription, with most of the Holman government, including William Holman itself, expelled. Storey became leader of the remnants of the ALP in 1917.
In the lead-up to the 1920 election the seat of Balmain was expanded to cover parts of the neighbouring seats of Annandale, Camperdown, Darling Harbour, Glebe and Rozelle, and became a five-member district elected by proportional representation.
At the 1920 election, the expanded Balmain elected four Labor members and one Nationalist. The ALP won a slim majority, and Storey became Premier. He served until his death in 1921.
Balmain elected three Labor and two Nationalist MPs in 1922, and again elected four Labor members in 1925.
The 1927 election saw a return to single-member districts, and Balmain reduced to a smaller single-member district. At that year’s election, the official Labor candidate, Harry Doran, was challenged by sitting Labor MLA HV Evatt, who had been elected as a member for the multi-member Balmain district in 1925. Evatt won re-election as an independent Labor candidate.
In 1930, Evatt was appointed to the High Court and didn’t contest Balmain. John Quirk, whose neighbouring seat of Rozelle had been abolished in the redistribution, was elected in Balmain for the ALP. Evatt later went on to serve as a federal MP, federal minister, and leader of the federal ALP from 1951 to 1960.
Quirk died in 1938, and the 1939 Balmain by-election was won by his wife Mary. She held the seat until 1950, when she ran as an independent after losing Labor preselection. She lost to official Labor candidate John McMahon.
McMahon served as a minister in the Labor government from 1959 until the government lost power in 1965, and he retired in 1968.
Roger Degen held Balmain for the ALP from 1968 until his retirement in 1984. That year the seat was won by Peter Crawford.
In 1988, Crawford lost Balmain to former Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser, running as an independent and ending over 80 years of Labor domination in Balmain.
Fraser held the seat for one term. In 1991, Balmain was abolished, and Fraser was defeated in an attempt to win the new seat of Port Jackson.
Port Jackson was won in 1991 by Sandra Nori of the ALP. Nori held the seat until 2007. In 2003, Port Jackson was the main target for the Greens, with Jamie Parker reducing Nori’s margin to 7.3%.
In 2007, Port Jackson was again renamed Balmain, and shifted west to lose Ultimo, Pyrmont and Sydney CBD and gained Haberfield. Nori retired, and the ALP preselected City of Sydney councillor Verity Firth. Greens councillor Rochelle Porteous reduced the ALP margin to 3.8%.
Candidates
- Verity Firth (Labor)
- Maire Sheehan (Independent)
- James Falk (Liberal)
- Leanne Gesling (Christian Democratic Party)
- Jane Ward (Independent)
- Nicholas Folkes (Independent)
- Jamie Parker (Greens)
- Jon Shapiro (Independent)
Political situation
Balmain is the strongest seat for the Greens in New South Wales. Despite a long history of ALP domination in the area, the Greens have made significant inroads in recent years. The Greens now hold six out of twelve seats on Leichhardt Council and have a strong presence with the inner western demographic that dominates Balmain and neighbouring Marrickville. When you also factor in the deep unpopularity of the Labor government, there is certainly a strong chance the Greens could win.
On the other hand, Firth has quite high popularity considering the state of the ALP, and could hold on to many voters who would otherwise consider voting Green.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Verity Firth | ALP | 16,562 | 39.2 | -2.9 |
| Rochelle Porteous | GRN | 12,471 | 29.5 | +0.2 |
| Peter Shmigel | LIB | 10,031 | 23.8 | +2.7 |
| Jane Ward | IND | 1,297 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Jane Hyde | IND | 987 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Edward Okulicz | DEM | 881 | 2.1 | -0.3 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Verity Firth | ALP | 17,933 | 53.8 | -3.2 |
| Rochelle Porteous | GRN | 15,431 | 46.2 | +3.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Balmain have been divided into four areas. The bulk of the seat is contained in Leichhardt local government area, and the booths in that area have been divided between Balmain, covering the suburbs on the peninsula, and Leichhardt, covering the southern parts of the council area.
Booths in Ashfield council area have been grouped as Haberfield, and booths in the City of Sydney have been grouped as Glebe.
The Greens won a slim 50.4% majority in the Balmain area. The ALP won majorities of 54-55% in Leichhardt and Glebe, and a larger majority of almost 65% in Haberfield, boosted by a large 31% for the Liberal Party. The Liberals got 27% in Balmain, 21% in Leichhardt, and their lowest vote was 16% in Glebe.
| Voter group | Lib % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Leichhardt | 21.6 | 54.9 | 13,705 | 32.5 |
| Balmain | 27.4 | 49.6 | 10,045 | 23.8 |
| Glebe | 16.4 | 53.9 | 6,166 | 14.6 |
| Haberfield | 31.8 | 64.7 | 3,622 | 8.6 |
| Other votes | 24.8 | 52.6 | 8,633 | 20.5 |
Um, Ben, it makes little difference but your 2007 2CP total numbers are wrong. Where are you getting them from? See here.
http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/resources/nswelectionsanalysis/2007/Balmain.htm
NicK C, you’ve just got to look at the Greens performance on Leichhardt Council since 2008! Forget Antony’s numbers, he hasn’t seen what has happened. But Balmain and Leichhardt rate payers have.
My prediction stands (1) Lib (2) Grn (3) Lab
At the candidates meeting last night in Leichhardt Town Hall, Verity Firth (sort of) announced that her card will preference the Greens. The others ducked the question. She may have been just fishing for Parker’s preferences (he can’t), but with that decision, if she sticks to it, she anointed Jamie Parker as her replacement. If enough Labor voters follow her HTV, that is.
But will they? Good question, and I’m not sure. Verity herself and some her fellow “left wingers” may be locked in a comfortable bubble of back-scratching political deals (that’s why Labor is in such trouble) and the so-called “progressive” ghetto that Leichhardt Councillors live in, but the real world sees things differently.
Without reciprocation, what she said about preferences made absolutely no sense. But then the word “sense” and NSW Labor should not used in the same sentence.
Reality Check – I tend to agree with that primary vote order and would suggest that the Liberals will get 38-40% of the primary vote here. But it won’t be enough to stop the Greens from winning the seat. This seat would be a hugh coup for the Liberal Party, but I can’t see it happening. The Greens are too strong.
The Greens “strength” is harvesting preferences. In Melbourne in August 2010, that was from the Libs. In Balmain in March 2011, it will from Labor. They won’t win Balmain without them.
Funny sort of strength… What either of those other parties give, that can take away any time they choose. Meanwhile, Labor relying on Greens prefs to get over the line is widely (and accurately) seen as “weakness”, and a sign of a party in historically permanent decline.
Verity Firth’s decision to pref the Greens (without any reciprocal deal) is bizarre. She has signed her own death warrant and relegated herself to a distant third place.
Libs will run first in Balmain (but still third in Marrickville). In Balmain, Jamie Parker will struggle to pick up any more Labor disaffected. Most of them will go over to the Libs. The Greens vote had already stagnated (actually a slight decrease) in 2007, and most people in Balmain have since seen what a Greens local government is like. “Nimby anti-development” is ok for rich people, but Balmain now knows that means their own DAs too, their own businesses, their own jobs.
Now factor in ongoing gentrification. Darling St (for all those who know it) now feels identical to Mosman. It has certainly lost its “hip” buzz, and retailers are complaining bitterly in the local press about prohibitively high rents. Ethnically (anglo), socially (wealthy) and educated but ageing, most of the electorate now resembles what the North Shore once was. ie. a Liberal enclave.
James Falk (Libs) will win this time, or next.
I thought the North Shore was still a Liberal enclave?
As for my prediction (this could change come election eve), whilst I do expect the Liberals to increase their vote, I’ve still got this one as a Green gain.
Russell Edwards, is there a reason why you have posted under two different usernames from the same IP address and with the same email address? I have half a mind to ban you for sockpuppetry.
The result will all boil down to exhaustion rates.
I’m not brave enough to pick this one. The Greens COULD conceivably have reached their ceiling in this seat under normal circumstances but this election is one very much out of the norm. Their chances rely on just how much of the ALP vote “migrates” and/or hopes that the residual ALP vote does not exhaust.
The Libs DO have a chance but it will be fully reliant on high exhaustion rates. Their primary MAY raise from some P’d off ALP voters however I doubt it will be sufficient to give them sufficient lead on primaries. A chance but an outside one.
Sorry Ben, just thought my user name was over-cooked on this thread. no reason other than that. Won’t happen again…
Knowing very little of either, would Porteous have been a more appealing candidate than Parker? NSW Greens not a good record of choosing electorally appealing candidates. A fascinating book on the area is Tony Harris’ Basketweavers and True Believers about the rise and fall of the ALP left and the Greens
Rochelle Porteous would definitely have been a more appealing choice for Greens voters, she is a well-known and popular Leichhardt local, but (I’m guessing here) the 2007 decline in Greens primaries doomed her chances within her party.
… and Ben, before you rap me over the knuckles again, I’ll just use my real name here, if that’s ok. There are risks about that, but I’ll cop whatever anyone throws at me.
People who live and work and breath (and love) a particular locality (Leichhardt and Balmain in my case) may not be as dispassionate about this as the Antony Green-style number crunchers who dominate this discussion site, but I think both types of commentators offer something to the mix. The Greens did make a mistake with their preselection for Balmain. How much this will matter, I’m not sure…
At any rate, it is kind of irrelevant now. Verity Firth’s decision to preference the Greens has taken a lot of the 3-corner fizz out this contest. She has anointed Jamie Parker, so now its a two-horse race between the Libs and the Greens. Why she did that is a mystery. And I’ll confess to being a bit annoyed, but only because it has meant there less to discuss and argue the toss about with like-minded people on Ben’s excellent site.
Whether or not Labor recommends to the Greens, their voters will largely go that way anyway if they come third. I don’t know how high the exhaustion rate would be, but doubt it would be above 50% for Labor voters. Even if there was no Labor recommendation (or a recommendation to exhaust) at least 80% of the Labor voters who do preference on will go to the Greens ahead of the Liberals.
So if you had a situation (after the elimination of minor candidates) where the Libs were on 40%, Greens 31 and Labor 29% you’d get the Greens picking up at least 12% and the Libs at most 3 – Green win.
The only way the Greens can miss out if Labor comes third would be either if Labor actually recommended for their voters to preference the Libs – which would cost them plenty of primaries and ensure they did come third – or if the Liberals had a lead of more than 10%. I can’t see either happening.
There’s no certainty the Greens will win this, but if they don’t it’s because Labor’s vote has held up relatively well and Firth is returned, or just possibly because the Liberals come first, Labor second and most Greens exhaust. A scenario where Labor comes third effectively guarantees Green victory.
Stephen L, you have nailed it. Good analysis. I am curious too about Verity Firth’s preference to the Greens decision though, because unless the favour is returned, WHY? There is a piosonous relationship between left wing Labor and the Greens in the Leichhardt area, and slander, mud slinging and personal invective is common, mostly coming from the Greens. The Greens deputy Mayor had to be censured after one such venomous slanging match involving a Labor guy’s mother!
Amongst the Greens people I speak to, the hatred and bitterness towards Labor strikes me as unhealthy. But the clues to this pathology are in the book Geoff Robertson mentioned, Tony Harris’s Basketweavers and True Believers. Many of the Greens used to be in left wing Labor. and old battle scars have never been forgotten. In fact, tensions have festered for decades,
Sportingbet is offering individual seat odds on selected seats – for Balmain they are offering 1.80 on Jamie Parker, 2.25 on Verity and 3.50 on the Lib.
I would assume Verity’s announcement that she will preference the Greens is intended to encourage Green leaning voters who don’t understand the preference system to vote for her, thinking they are also voting for the Greens in some way. In reality it wont make any difference unless Labor falls to third place, but I can’t see this happening so it’s just a clever trick to make herself seem like another Green.
I imagine this is the same reason she has pictures of wind turbines and bikes on her website.
Gee, good odds on the Liberal Millard. I’d put them ahead of the ALP here if I was the bookmaker. But as I said on 10/2, it will be a Green v Liberal race and the Greens will most likely win.
Darn. Missed the boat. After going through the rigmarole of opening an account with SportingBet I find Parker’s shortened to 1.20. None of the other individual seat odds look too enticing either.
Dunno how “sporting” it will be David and Millard…. I’ve heard that “voters are waiting with a baseball bat” observation so often now from lazy pundits that I’m starting to tire of the blood sport that is this election. On Insiders today someone said, “Its not a baseball bat, it’s a machine gun,” haw haw haw…
Whenever this analogy is used it is always accompanied by guffaws and knowing smirks, as if beating someone to death or machine gunning them into a crumpled heap is great fun to watch and contemplate.
Lately I was reminded of that famous Johnny Cash lyric. “I shot a man in Reno, just to watch him die”
If that really is the mood of NSW, we are one sick puppy of a State.
In the unlikely event that it is a Liberal-Labor 2PP in this seat, what is anyone’s guess at what the Green preference flow % to Labor is likely to be?
Hughie – I’d say 35% to the ALP with a 50% exhaustion rate and 15% to the Libs.
Dunno DB, that 35% seems a tad high (the HTV will recommend exhaust). Amongst inner west Greens party people, hatred of Labor is intense and (to an outsider of both parties) a bit pathological. They would rather preference Meriton’s Harry Triguboff than Verity Firth.
But with ordinary Greens voters, perhaps they will still think there is some symmetry between the two parties and ignore the HTV. I think that must be behind Verity’s decision to preference Greens. I certainly can’t think of any other reason.
In 2007 Libs said exhaust, and 85% did so. Nearly 70 % who didn’t pref-ed Green (their choice). There is far more common ground between Libs & Greens in Balmain now than most people realise, as that figure shows.
The Coalition prob won’t win this seat. For them to do so, they would need:
1. Come first on Primary Vote
2. ALP to come 2nd
3. Be in front on Primaries by about 5000 votes.
To be honest, you would need the planets aligned, Charlie Sheen to be sober and Michael Clarke to get back with Lara Bingle for this event to occur.
This will be a Greens win (with a sizeable margin) and Verity will be looking for a new job with the Chaser!
I’m going to argue against conventional wisdom that this electorate will start resembling a three way race.
Verity’s left wing stances (ethics classes, same sex adoption etc.), high name recognition, local popularity and slight perception she is “one of the good ones” ensures probably a lower swing against her than the state swing.
Jamie Parker is obviously the one with the biggest advantage. However I work in Leichhardt and have come to realize that he is fairly unpopular with a lot of the local businesspeople and white collar professionals. He also, according to my Greens friends, is less personable and thus you’ve seen less of the kind of grassroot surge in volunteers for the Greens in Balmain as you do in Marrickville for the immensely popular FIona. (having said that I still think he has the easiest race)
James Falk with the Libs you’d think would be the underdog. But the Balmain Peninsula of today is no longer what it was, it is incredibly gentrified and aspirational. Similar but less intense situation in parts of Glebe and Leichhardt. Many older moderates in these areas will shift from ALP to Libs before Greens.
With no preference deals I’m going to call three way first past the post. Certainly an interesting seat to watch.
crazedmongoose – Libs will win the primary vote here (probably get ~40%), but I think Greens will win on the back of ALP preferences. ALP are no shot after Verity confirmed her preferencing to the Green candidate. Lib v Green race clearly.
Okay just to get this out of the way so people aren’t accusing me of bias blah blah, yes I am an ALP member and am campaigning in various seats right now for like 10+ hours a week (also working full time for a none party/union job, so I’ll pretty much be dead well before 26th of March). I do TRY to be unbiased in analysis though. I’ll admit I like Verity and she is probably one of my favorite members.
So what is the reasoning that Libs will get first on primary?
The strength on the ground here is truly disproportional. Verity probably has twice the amount of volunteers working twice the hours than Falk and Parker PUT TOGETHER. Falk doesn’t even have an office here as far as I see, his office is all the way in Five Dock.
The Greens here are also putting in a disproportionate amount of strength. I’m just saying their ground game is not as impressive as in Marrickville.
So yeah, I don’t see how you’d arrive at Labor coming THIRD on primary, and much less Libs coming FIRST.
the least likely result is a lib 40% vote above both the green and labor……….. libs will come 3rd……..
who ever wins the primary vote probably wins the seat
crazedmongoose – then surely you are aware of the poll done last weekend – 37% Lib, 34% Green, 23% ALP?….obviously not.
Sorry Mick, you are smoking wacky tabacci to think the Libs will come 3rd on primaries. Second perhaps behind the Greens. Verity is a lost cause. The ALP are wasting their money here.
Other candidates for this seat listed elsewhere are Leanne Gesling for the CDP, and Nick Folkes from the unregistered far-right Australian Protectionist Party.
Think that 37% may be nigh the highwater mark for the Libs in this seat. Not out of the question that the Lib MAY lead on primaries but I doubt their lead will be sufficient to get over the line.
Verity MAY had a chance until her husband’s self indulgent stupidity. Had he been a “nobody”, the political fallout would have been minor but not with his position as a senior bureaucrat.
Parker has his record in local government to run on …. or hold against him. This is no laydown misere for the Greens. The seat is sufficiently diverse that he will be depending on a positive fallout from the expected implosion in the ALP vote.
I favour the Greens to win but would not be wagering the sheep station …. or even the outhouse on it.
There is a lot of that “wacky tabacci” around, I guess…. I picked up one “local” newspaper today (its not, its produced elsewhere) whose front page story” The Battle Of Balmain” didn’t even mention the candidate who everyone here agrees (accurately) will win on primaries – James Falk.
BTW, and this is totally irrelevant but since it has been widely reported elsewhere – Parker’s only non Greens paid job was spruiking “natural” health products – most notably “Horny Goat Weed”. And you are right, Crazedmongoose’ local business people dislike him and many other green-orientated and community interest groups quite rightly distrust him. For their chance to “make history,” the Greens picked very badly in Balmain.
The four independents who have now announced may take some of the “protest” vote away from the Green’s Jamie Parker. Hard to say if they will make any difference to anything, but at least they muddy the waters and keep our attention.
Jane Ward: A serial candidate and fairly well known ex-leader of the Balmain Association. She avoids preference horse trading but her policies are identical to the Greens. She’ll take votes from Parker, but most will go straight back.
John Shapiro: Does have something interestingly radical to say, and likewise, will take his cut straight from Parker’s first prefs. But his “chip-on-the-shoulder” move of taking the local Murdoch paper to the Press Council for not giving him “sufficient coverage” doesn’t auger well for his chances of picking more than a handful of fellow malcontents.
Nike Folkes: A previous senate candidate for something called the APP, which has a ragbag of libertarian, protectionist and nationalistic policies borrowed from both the extreme right and far left. Reading the stuff on his site just emphasizes how similar some of the Greens positions are are to One Nations. He will cut into Parkers vote a bit, then pick up a few maddies from the Libs.
Leanne Gesling (CDP). I’m assuming all the Fred Nile votes come from the Libs, but I may be wrong. They’ll go straight back though.
My prediction: Green gain, 10-12% swing
My prediction: Greens gain, 7% swing. Liberals to finish 2nd maybe, and possibly even win the primary vote, but Labor preferences will see a Green win.
DB: I’m really not too sure of which poll you’re talking about. However I haven’t been spending any time in Balmain (sixth coalition descends so obviously the Imperial Guard is pulling back to Paris) so it’s probable I missed it.
Is there a link to it somewhere?
DB: to be sure the ALP has long since stopped funding seats with this slim margins. Her impressive ground/grassroots operation is due to her massive popularity with the young left, the branches, and the unions
Crazedmongoose – it’s private party polling.
What do people think of the business dealings of Jamie Parker? Will it affect the chances of him winning the seat?
There wasn’t much that was new in the Sun Herald’s report, apart from the fact that Jamie’s company had been subject to so many consumer complaints. Most inner west insiders were well aware of his role in the marketing of “Horny Goat Weed” and “Fatblaster.”
But how much of this percolates down, I really don’t know. He has so many negatives going for on so many levels (local business and many local interest group already distrust him) and yet, everyone, just everyone is giving him this seat. Even Verity Firth will “most likely” preference him, despite his angry refusal to reciprocate.
The Tele’s Tim Blair had some fun with his extra curricular business interests (link), but the local Murdoch media won’t touch the story because of the power of Council advertising (he spends a lot, and like most Mayors standing as candidates, with a very direct purpose). He will most likely accuse me of having “an interest” in that matter. And that’s true, to a very small (very, very small) degree, I do.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/natural_and_green/
“Crazedmongoose
Posted February 27, 2011 at 9:25 PM
DB: to be sure the ALP has long since stopped funding seats with this slim margins.”
I am not sure that is right, not according to someone in the know from the ALP who I spoke to.
Maire Sheehan, a former Leichhardt Mayor, is the last candidate to join the field. What’s her local profile and ideological leanings?
DB: Head office has stopped funding. She’s still getting some pretty impressive funding from Left Wing unions as she has been and is the darling of the progressives in the ALP, perhaps even more so than Carmel.
Anyway, breaking news, Maire Sheehan has thrown her hat into the ring. She is progressive and Parker’s predecessor in Leichhardt. Her supporters GENERALLY vote Greens. So it seems she should be splitting a bit of the Greens primary.
Did she just give Verity a last minute, however slim, chance?
This will be interesting, with the Green vote split about 5 ways, a 37% Liberal primary could win them the seat
Crazedmongoose – that is good news for the Liberals. Agree with dovif, who ever gets high 30’s here wins the seat. Libs are starting to think they could be there. This is completely open contest.
It should be noted that Greens voters generally come from a more educated background. The preference flows between Maire Sheehan and Jamie Parker will be strong, enough to leap past Verity.
The major threat to Verity still remains Labor voters switching to Liberal and exhausting.
This could be the first Optional Preferential election where a candidate wins from third place. I expect the first preference outcome will be 1. Labor 2. Liberal 3. Greens but within 1~2% of each other. With Marie’s preferences, Jamie could beat Liberal and Labor to win this seat.
I actually view Marie’s nomination as a positive outcome for the Greens because it lets centre voters vote for the Greens without putting them at the top of the ticket, and not assisting Labor or Liberal. It’s certainly positive for the public, as the stronger the candidate field, the better the outcome for democracy.
It might muddy the waters a bit if people don’t direct preferences with Sheehan now running. I reckon this probably helps Verity a bit. But I still think the swing here, however it goes, is still going to be too big for Verity to overcome.
I think this will actually benefit the Coalition. The more volatility there is amongst the left-leaning candidates, the more likely voters are to exhaust their votes. I am expecting the Coalition to take the 1st Primary Vote win but whether the Greens manage to haul in the gap depends solely on exhaustions.
I read that independent Maire Sheehan was the deciding vote that downed Jamie Parker’s first tilt at Leichhardt Mayor ?
Agree entirely with Hawkeye and his argument is the way this will play out. ALP from my info are little hope here now despite an incredible amount of effort.