Balmain – NSW 2011

ALP 3.7% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Verity Firth, since 2007.

Geography
Inner Sydney. Balmain covers the entirety of Leichhardt local government area, including Balmain, Leichhardt, Lilyfield, Annandale and Rozelle, as well as Haberfield in the City of Ashfield and Glebe in the City of Sydney.

History
Balmain has existed as an electoral district in various forms since 1880. In that time it has covered a variety of different areas all around the Balmain peninsula. The original seat was created as a single-member district in 1880.

Back in the 19th century, districts would gain extra MPs if the population in the area grew, instead of experiencing regular redistributions. Balmain quickly gained extra MLAs, gaining a second in 1882, a third in 1885 and a fourth in 1889. Ironically the four-seat district of 1889 bore a close resemblance to the modern seat’s boundaries.

In 1894, Balmain was abolished and replaced by the single-member districts of South Balmain, North Balmain, Leichhardt and Annandale.

In 1904, Balmain was re-created when Balmain Southand Balmain Northwere merged. It elected a Liberal MP in 1904, but in 1907 it was won by the ALP’s John Storey in 1907. He had previously held Balmain Northfrom 1901 to 1904.

The NSW Labor Party split in 1916 over conscription, with most of the Holman government, including William Holman itself, expelled. Storey became leader of the remnants of the ALP in 1917.

In the lead-up to the 1920 election the seat of Balmain was expanded to cover parts of the neighbouring seats of Annandale, Camperdown, Darling Harbour, Glebe and Rozelle, and became a five-member district elected by proportional representation.

At the 1920 election, the expanded Balmain elected four Labor members and one Nationalist. The ALP won a slim majority, and Storey became Premier. He served until his death in 1921.

Balmain elected three Labor and two Nationalist MPs in 1922, and again elected four Labor members in 1925.

The 1927 election saw a return to single-member districts, and Balmain reduced to a smaller single-member district. At that year’s election, the official Labor candidate, Harry Doran, was challenged by sitting Labor MLA HV Evatt, who had been elected as a member for the multi-member Balmain district in 1925. Evatt won re-election as an independent Labor candidate.

In 1930, Evatt was appointed to the High Court and didn’t contest Balmain. John Quirk, whose neighbouring seat of Rozelle had been abolished in the redistribution, was elected in Balmain for the ALP. Evatt later went on to serve as a federal MP, federal minister, and leader of the federal ALP from 1951 to 1960.

Quirk died in 1938, and the 1939 Balmain by-election was won by his wife Mary. She held the seat until 1950, when she ran as an independent after losing Labor preselection. She lost to official Labor candidate John McMahon.

McMahon served as a minister in the Labor government from 1959 until the government lost power in 1965, and he retired in 1968.

Roger Degen held Balmain for the ALP from 1968 until his retirement in 1984. That year the seat was won by Peter Crawford.

In 1988, Crawford lost Balmain to former Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser, running as an independent and ending over 80 years of Labor domination in Balmain.

Fraser held the seat for one term. In 1991, Balmain was abolished, and Fraser was defeated in an attempt to win the new seat of Port Jackson.

Port Jackson was won in 1991 by Sandra Nori of the ALP. Nori held the seat until 2007. In 2003, Port Jackson was the main target for the Greens, with Jamie Parker reducing Nori’s margin to 7.3%.

In 2007, Port Jackson was again renamed Balmain, and shifted west to lose Ultimo, Pyrmont and Sydney CBD and gained Haberfield. Nori retired, and the ALP preselected City of Sydney councillor Verity Firth. Greens councillor Rochelle Porteous reduced the ALP margin to 3.8%.

Candidates

Political situation
Balmain is the strongest seat for the Greens in New South Wales. Despite a long history of ALP domination in the area, the Greens have made significant inroads in recent years. The Greens now hold six out of twelve seats on Leichhardt Council and have a strong presence with the inner western demographic that dominates Balmain and neighbouring Marrickville. When you also factor in the deep unpopularity of the Labor government, there is certainly a strong chance the Greens could win.

On the other hand, Firth has quite high popularity considering the state of the ALP, and could hold on to many voters who would otherwise consider voting Green.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Verity Firth ALP 16,562 39.2 -2.9
Rochelle Porteous GRN 12,471 29.5 +0.2
Peter Shmigel LIB 10,031 23.8 +2.7
Jane Ward IND 1,297 3.1 +3.1
Jane Hyde IND 987 2.3 +2.3
Edward Okulicz DEM 881 2.1 -0.3

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Verity Firth ALP 17,933 53.8 -3.2
Rochelle Porteous GRN 15,431 46.2 +3.2

Booth breakdown
Booths in Balmain have been divided into four areas. The bulk of the seat is contained in Leichhardt local government area, and the booths in that area have been divided between Balmain, covering the suburbs on the peninsula, and Leichhardt, covering the southern parts of the council area.

Booths in Ashfield council area have been grouped as Haberfield, and booths in the City of Sydney have been grouped as Glebe.

The Greens won a slim 50.4% majority in the Balmain area. The ALP won majorities of 54-55% in Leichhardt and Glebe, and a larger majority of almost 65% in Haberfield, boosted by a large 31% for the Liberal Party. The Liberals got 27% in Balmain, 21% in Leichhardt, and their lowest vote was 16% in Glebe.

 

Polling booths in Balmain at the 2007 state election. Balmain in blue, Leichhardt in green, Glebe in orange, Haberfield in yellow.
Voter group Lib % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Leichhardt 21.6 54.9 13,705 32.5
Balmain 27.4 49.6 10,045 23.8
Glebe 16.4 53.9 6,166 14.6
Haberfield 31.8 64.7 3,622 8.6
Other votes 24.8 52.6 8,633 20.5
Two-party-preferred (Labor vs Greens) votes in Balmain at the 2007 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Balmain at the 2007 state election.

209 COMMENTS

  1. I think Verity should start looking for a new job. I think it is highly unlikely the Liberals in New South Wales will preference a party as toxic as NSW Labor ahead of the Greens as they did in Victoria.

    Seems the Greens got around double the amount of non-primary votes compared to what Labor received last time. Interesting to see the Liberals got the biggest swing, did some prominent Independent or that aircraft noise party drop out after 2004?

  2. The Liberal candidate in 2007 did a fair amount of work on the ground and picked up a 2.7% swing, which would have come from the 2.9% fall in the Labor primary vote. Many Sydney seats in 2007 recorded swings away from Labor and to Liberal in the 1%-3% range; in Balmain the process could have been helped by the changing socio-economic status of the area.

    The swing figures above don’t add up (ie cancel each other out) because Independents and the minor party candidate in 2007 just picked up votes achieved by other Independents and minor party candidates in 2003.

    The Greens vote in 2007 was effectively stationary, although a far stronger (and high profile) candidate in 2011 should see that change, but at the expense of the Labor vote, not the Liberal vote. It’s possible that Liberals and Greens could both take votes away from Labor, although hard to see Labor dropping back to second, or even third place.

    In 2007, nearly 73% of Liberal voters exhausted their vote, rather than express a preference between Labor and the Greens. Of the rest, 19% gave their preference to the Greens, and 8% to Labor. Theoretically, the Greens would have needed more than 67% of Liberal preferences to have won Balmain in 2007. It’s hard to see Liberal voters becoming that enthusiastic about the Greens in the last four years, so for Jamie Parker to win he would have to pick up a lot more primary votes from Labor.

    Balmain 2011 – should be a fascinating contest! Firth vs Parker … and will either court the Liberals for their preferences? Verity has already stated that she would rather lose to the Greens than do a preference deal with the Liberals (Daily Telegraph 2 January) so it remains to be seen whether the Greens will try to cosy up to local Liberal voters for their preferences!

    (Incidentally, Dawn Fraser didn’t retire in 1991, as stated above. She contested Port Jackson and was soundly beaten by Sandra Nori)

  3. @ GNav, thanks for Telegraph spotting, I had to read it just to believe it… Though I have heard other inner city ALP people say the same thing (Tanya Plibersek), and a Labor Councillor once sneered at me, “I’ll have no truck with the Tories, comrade” when I suggested an alliance of convenience.

    That stance might be “principled” but it is also a death wish. And it’s odd that the ALP “comrades” seem so resigned to being cut down by a party (Greens) which despises them, and has systematically set out to destroy the ALP’s left by picking off its best performers.

    Verity Firth will come to regret her decision.

  4. Usual Suspect, I would hardly say the Greens are systematically setting out to destroy the Labor left. Its not the Greens fault that the Labor Party has alienated the left, they’re trying to win seats the same way any Political Party would. I wouldn’t say that the Liberals are systematically trying to destroy the Labor Left by pumping resources into Toongabbie. Its what Parties do, they go hard for winnable seats.

  5. Verity’s defeat will be very pleasing to see – only 70 days to second Christmas.

    Preferences wont matter – the Greens will win on first preferences and the Liberals will exhaust.

  6. @ Millard Fillmore. Look closer at Haberfield. There is also the candidate factor. Mayor Parker has a higher profile and far more ambition than 2007’s Greens candidate, that’s true. But in his case that is not necessarily a positive.

  7. Haberfield, the highest achiever for the Liberals in Grayndler, was worth about 1,200 votes. Really not big deal. Besides, look at the swings in Granydler. 3% for the Liberals, 7% for the Greens.

    Mayor Parker has a higher profile and he is popular, having met him he’s a really charismatic and friendly guy and I think that is something that will definitely work to his advantage now and after his win.

  8. I’m still unconvinced that Parker’s a certainty. The safe money suggests he’ll win but Firth’s quite a good MP and people may decide to reward that rather than punish that. Also, he’s only got a profile for half the electorate, the Glebe end of it (where I live) he’s still a nobody…sort of.

  9. An interesting analysis, though I think perhaps you underestimate the impact of optional preferential voting, and how that will alter the relative performance of the three parties.

    If we presume, for the time being, that Balmain incurs it’s fair share of the uniform anti-Labor swing, say 15%. This takes Labor’s primary vote down to 24.2%. Frankly, short of the Greens picking up every one of these votes, this pushes Labor into THIRD place, behind both the Greens and Liberals.

    The real question, therefore, is how the Labor vote splits between the Libs and Greens. Do people believe that the only way to change the government is to elect a Liberal? Are they willing to take the risk of a protest vote at such an important election?

    Let’s hazard a guess at 9% going to the Greens and 6% going to the Liberals – this leaves the Greens at 38.5% and the Tories at 29.8%. (Personally, I think it’ll be closer to a 50/50 split, but stick with me here).

    The real question for Balmain is, in fact, not how Liberal preferences distribute, but how LABOR preferences distribute.

    Let’s presume all three parties run a ‘Just vote 1’ HTV. What will Labor’s adherence rate be?

    Frankly, this seat could go any of about 50 different ways depending on the performance of each of the parties on the day.

    Definitely one to watch on election night!

  10. Spot on DA. Labor prefs hold the key and no one can call this one with any certainty. Or at least until someone makes their pref decision known. Though I have already tipped the Libs and I am sticking by that. That is based all three doing a Vote 1 only HTV, and on having met both Lib and Greens candidates. A lot will depend on James Falk’s ability to door knock and present himself to as many people as possible. Jamie Parker’s record as mayor is not going to work for him because he has alienated too many significant interest groups. His naysaying message only works with a tiny minority of professional malcontents – everyone else it annoys.

    That said, Balmain has its fair share of professional malcontents.

    ps. Where is Jane Ward? Surely the election can’t be held until we know she’s a candidate again?

  11. Will the Liberals make any effort in 2011 though, or will they leave the Greens and Labor to fight it out?

    Certainly there is a Liberal base there, given they polled 24% in a terrible election for them, and there are some nice developments going up along the waterfront. But I’d be surprised if they won the seat.

  12. It’s not the “nice developments” but the general ageing and conservative drift of the boho residents. With the exception of a small part of Glebe, these are seriously well-off people. Balmain was an early Greens stronghold, but their vote flatlined before 2007. Since then there have been a number of negatives, most of them associated with Leichhardt council, who copped a savage blast in The Australian last friday.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/greens-starting-to-show-true-political-colours/story-e6frg6zo-1225991933747

    I doubt Verity Firth will cop the full 15% swing, but the damage will be enough to put her in third place. I can attest that Lib James Falk IS making a serious effort and is an impressive candidate. But he has a lot of work to do, that’s true.

  13. No way can the Liberals win here imo. Balmain’s gentrified, yes, but areas around Leichhardt and Glebe are still pretty slummy imo. Last federal election produced a result ~ 17% for the ALP iirc.

  14. Oh the bitterness of the ALP-hack – Dyrenfurth in that Oz article is bile personified, but what can any non-ALPer expect from them. BTW “savage blast”? What, the council officers doing their job in restricting smoke blowing through other shops (from the sausage sizzle), as if its some sort of right that you can pollute everybody else’s space? Or the nonsense of Marrickville Jews being searched in their homes – trying to invoke images of nazism? That’s when you know they’re clutching at straws.

  17. I agree with morgieb. This is a Green v ALP race. If ALP run third the Greens will win. If Greens run third, the ALP will win. The Libs won’t be preferencing imo. Even if the Libs ran first on primary, the preferences from the other two will see one of them winning it. Will be a fascinating contest though. I have a sneaky suspicion though that the Libs will win the primary vote.

  18. What makes people think that the Libs will win the primary vote? As someone that lives in the area, I think that most people here wouldn’t consider voting Liberal even now. They’d vote Green – the Greens went very close to winning last time with a very low-profile candidate. With the mayor up, and with Labor ridiculously on the nose, there’s no way that the Greens cannot win it.

    Also, Verity’s a good local member. I think that’ll see ALP/Green 2PP runoff rather than Liberal finishing 2nd.

  19. I would think that there would be at least a marginal increase in the Liberal Party vote based on statewide polling.

  20. Liberals will have an increase, no doubt. Enough to win them the seat, doubt it. Its the kind of place where the Liberal vote can only go so far regardless of state climate.

  23. Sarc> Could win back some votes from the Greens… </ sarc

    Seriously, how many Labor husbands/wives are also in full time employment in a political role. If anything shows why NSW Labor is going downhill, it must seriously be the fact that when most of the decision makers go home at night they tend to get feedback and advice from people also wrapped securely in the Macquarie Street / Governer Phillip Tower bubble.

  24. Labor is like one of those Latin American oligarchies, sort of the 50 ruling families Aussie style.

  25. Balmain still remains the Greens’ No.1 chance of a Lower House pick-up but still can’t mark it down as a cert. Whilst it contains some strong Green areas, it is not demographically homogenous.

    Firth really needed everything to go her way bit her husband’ self indulgence is something she doesn’t need. Some are talking up an upset win for the Libs & it is indeed plausible but dependent on (1) absolute maximisation of Lib primary (2) Greens & ALP cutting their own throats by exhausting preferences.

  26. Actually I suspect this will help Firth’s chances. It’s Balmain and there will be a sympathy vote from it. The only drawback for her personally is that many people will be disturbed to discover that her husband is a staffer for another minister, with the perception of nepotism others have pointed to.

    In other seats it is another nail in the party’s coffin that is already well and truly bolted shut.

  27. Verity’s husband is a bright guy and deserves his position on merit. If there were more like him and Verity in NSW Labor the govt would still be heading for a defeat but not the disaster the ruling faction has inflicted on the party.

  28. To be expected from people without any life experience who only know the party. Its bollocks to suggest its just the minority faction. The sooner the people speak the better. 33 days until mercifully the caretaker period begins.

  29. Channel 7 reporting police moved the bail date from March 18 to April 1 at the request of Mr Chesher and that the request was agreed to given the co-operation rendered by Mr Chesher to police.

  30. You’d have to say the Greens will win this now. At the end of the day, while it was not Verity herself, people are allowed to discriminate in the polling booth, and I suspect they will.

  31. Self indulgent conduct on behalf of elected officials & indeed apparatchiks knows no ideological boundaries. ALP Right, ALP Left, both sides of the Libs, the Nats have all been guilty …..and rest assured, the more Greens that get elected will undoubtedly see them join the list.

    The self indulgence of prominent members of this govt, especially over the past 5-6 years HAS been nauseous & our public life will be well rid of them & their accompanying stench. However, this old realist has no illusions that their replacements will in time prove just as disfunctional & self-indulgent.

  32. Re: Self indulgent behaviour: You are right dirkprovin, and the Greens are already there. One of Jamie Parker’s Greens party councillors on Leichhardt Council has recently pleaded guilty to far more serious possession charges, and is contesting “deemed supply” ones.

    Under the Greens policy, Mr Chester would have walked away from that friday night sting, and happily gone on “partying”. But I wonder how many of them will speak up on his behalf. Or will simply enjoy their enemy’s misfortune.

  33. Mr Check, the SMH had this to say about the Greens on Chesher:

    The Greens candidate in Ms Firth’s seat of Balmain, the mayor of Leichhardt, Jamie Parker, would not be drawn on the revelations yesterday, avoiding the issue despite his party’s position on personal drug use.

    ”This is a personal and family matter,” he said.

    The Greens policy is to ”remove criminal sanctions for personal drug use and the possession of associated implements”.

    I don’t think you’ll see the Greens talk about this any more than that. I’d say it’s something the constituents will need to make up their own mind about. Do you think there’d be a more appropriate response from the Greens?

  35. No I don’t there will be anything more than that, deconst. Jamie Parker and other Greens will not draw attention their party’s odd position themselves, other than hope and pray that as few people as possible bring it up. But Mr Chester’s “problem” has, ironically, focussed attention on it.

    As I understand their stance (as it stands at the moment) whereby personal drug use is a “health issue”, in this case Mr Chester would have walked away free or maybe offered counselling for his medical problem. However the person who supplied him would have been arrested and charged with an offence.

    Correct me if I’m wrong.

  36. The only thing you are wrong about is the hypocrisy of the Labor Candidate who refused to answer today whether or not she had used drugs only claiming “she’d done nothing wrong”.

    What a freaking hypocrite at least Jamie Parker doesnt play coy word games like these.

  38. Yeah Millard, I saw the reptiles were hoping for a Clinton-ish “didn’t inhale” quote. I understand their interest, but yours? The dynamic of the Firth-Chesher relationship may well be fascinating to some (oh, to be a fly on the wall that friday night after hubby’s misadventure on Glebe’s mean streets) but I’m not sure what you mean by ” Parker not playing word games”. He’s a politician! What is his position? He has just said ‘no comment.”

  39. If its ok to ask Verity Firth the “have you ever inhaled” question, as the press did yesterday, then it is ok to ask the other candidates too. There is a public Meet the Candidates meeting at Leichhardt Town Hall next Tuesday 6pm. They can expect to asked. We’ll see who plays word games then.

  41. I can’t see Labor winning this now. Personally I hate it when politicians can’t answer very straightforward questions like these. I wonder what percentage of the population has tried ecstacy? I’d say it’s pretty low. I know I haven’t. Admitting to it would seal her fate. Not denying it will have the same effect.

  42. Thanks DB, Sam, Millard and everyone for answering my question about the Greens supporting someone caught out by an unjust unnecessary, barbaric and silly law. I asked “Or will they simply enjoy their enemy’s misfortune”.

    Affirmative… Now, its about the party’s policy on recreational drugs: OK to use and have (bigger, more relaxed market) but still illegal (ie expensive, huge mark-ups) to sell. The bikies love you guys.

  43. The Greens won’t pick up ex-Labor people upset by drug use, the Libs will

    Re: DB who asks who uses ecstasy: The Herald recently recently reported that it was the drug of choice for the middle aged middle class, and that confers with my own observations. Officially the figure is 9.1% of all adults. (or 91% of us haven’t). Admitting that I haven’t (amongst the people I live and work with) is something I keep to myself.

    Verity did blow that press conference. She looked very stressed, but at least now she has a ready made excuse for coming third. It will be (1) Liberal (2) Greens (3) ALP. If anyone does use preferences, than that result may be muddied, but I think it will be a pretty clean result.

  44. Doubt that the episode will make much difference – my guess is that the swing against the ALP won’t go better for the Liberals than a 50/50 split with the Green which would keep the Green ahead of the Liberal party on primary votes. the real question will be whether the swing is big enough to get the Greens leading on primary votes and who comes second and third.

  45. Just to make clear Geoff, I’m not suggesting there is anything nepotistic about a minister having a partner working for another minister – it’s pretty common in every field for people to marry someone who works in a similar occupation. However, I think there might be some very low level of negative perception. Small, but more likely to cost votes than a possession drug bust, which in Balmain will create sympathy if it has any effect at all.

    If Firth loses Labor would be smart to find a seat for her somewhere else – maybe in the Upper House, but smart and NSW Labor are not words that go well together.

  46. Lesson of NSW might be that Labor had a very sucessfull formula that worked well in old Labor times but was unsuited to new times. Poltical success meant that the party actually changed less than Vic or Qld Labor and paid the price. Like Qld Nats

  47. Reality Check – as much as I would like it, the Liberals won’t win the seat of Balmain. Not sure where you are getting your info from. Perhaps my sources are different.

  48. Lets be clear about this.

    Verity Firth is very much a creature of the ALP left. Not only is her husband an ALP apparatchik her aunt is Meredith Burgmann lately of the NSW Upper House. Her life experience by and large consists of working for Anthony Albanese as an electorate officer, notably she plays up a brief stint with a Labor law firm as her experience outside of politics.

    The hypocrisy of the ectasy is very simple. The ALP tries to straddle to many sides of too many positions. Female politicians are the first to play the “dont judge me on my husband I’m my own person” line including claiming feminist principle as to keeping their own surname upon marriage – yet when in trouble also play the betrayed wife line and respect my privacy at this difficult time line. This week’s been a classic example.

    On drugs its also clear that many in the ALP dont have any problem with recreational drug use in private, in public they also know the voting public dont approve – hence the contortions about “i’ve done nothing wrong”.

    As to Jamie Parker and the Greens they have an internally consistent position – good for them.

    Verity doesnt cry for her husband or about the drugs – she cries for her career. Bring on March 26th and der untergang I say.

  49. DB, gut feeling… I’m involved in the local scene and local business, and mix widely with lots of different people. I’m NOT in the party ghettos. So yeah I’m guessing, like everyone else, and I’m not a number cruncher. There the accelerated gentrification and I think the migration of Labor voters to Greens maxed out in this area some time ago. There’s the candidate factor too. Not sure how important this is, but Falk is a very impressive one and a cleanskin. Parker is (to put it bluntly) an old hand who has stood many times before in many seats. In the Leichhardt area he has seriously alienated many interest groups. And not just the business ones.

  50. Another announced candidate here is independent Jon Shapiro.

    Fraser didn’t retire in 1991, she was comprehensively beaten.

    What’s interesting here is that if you look at the Greens performance at the 2008 local government elections they’d be winning this in a canter, but on the other hand it’s curious that according to Antony’s analysis of 2010 federal results by state electorate, the Greens would’ve only finished third.

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