Ballina – NSW 2011

NAT 14.5%

Incumbent MP
Don Page, since 1988.

Geography
Northern NSW. Ballina covers all of Ballina Shire and most of Byron Shire. The main towns in the seat are Byron, Lennox Head, Byron Bay and Mullumbimby.

History
The seat of Ballina in its current form has existed since 1988, and in that time it has always been held by the same National Party MP. Another seat named Ballina existed from 1894 to 1904.

Ballina was created in 1988, when the pre-existing seat of Byron was broken up between Ballina and Murwillumbah.

Ballina was won by Don Page, a grandson of former Country Party Prime Minister Earle Page. He served as deputy leader of the NSW National Party from 2003 to 2007, and still holds the seat.

Candidates

Political situation
Ballina appears on paper to be a safe National Party seat, and no doubt will remain in National hands in 2011. The more interesting contest will be between the Labor Party and the Greens for the second position.

The ALP outpolled the Greens by less than 4%. Considering the strong position of the Greens in Byron Shire, where they hold the mayoralty, and the unpopularity of the ALP, it seems likely the Greens will come second. Ballina in the future could prove to be a Greens target very different to the typical inner-city Labor seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Don Page NAT 21,983 54.4 +2.5
Melanie Doriean ALP 9,330 23.1 -2.6
John Bailey GRN 7,861 19.4 -0.2
Ben Smith DEM 714 1.8 +1.8
Flora Boyd AAFI 551 1.4 +1.4

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Don Page NAT 23,201 64.5 +5.1
Melanie Doriean ALP 12,788 35.5 -5.1

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ballina have been divided into three areas. Booths in Ballina Shire have been divided between those in Ballina itself and those in surrounding areas. The remainder of booths lie in Byron Shire.

The Nationals primary vote was very different in Ballina compaared to Byron. The Nationals primary vote was over 60% in Ballina itself and in surrounding areas, but barely 40% in Byron. The Greens, on the other hand, polled over 33% in Byron, well ahead of the ALP, who polled 22%. The Greens polled 9% in Ballina and 13.5% in the surrounding areas. The ALP’s vote peaked at 27% in Ballina.

Comparing the ALP and Greens vote, the ALP outpolled the Greens in most booths in Ballina Shire, including all of those in Ballina itself. The Greens outpolled Labor in most Byron booths. Overall the Greens polled 11% more than Labor in Byron, whereas the ALP polled almost 18% more than the Greens in Ballina.

Polling booths in Ballina at the 2007 state election. Byron in blue, Ballina in orange, Ballina Surrounds in green.
Voter group NAT % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Byron 41.5 22.1 33.7 12,469 30.8
Ballina Surrounds 61.2 22.0 13.5 10,693 26.4
Ballina 60.3 27.1 9.3 9,813 24.3
Other votes 58.3 20.9 17.5 7,464 18.5
National primary votes in Ballina at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Ballina at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Ballina at the 2007 state election.
Polling booths in Ballina at the 2007 state election, showing which out of Labor and the Greens polled more in each booth.

15 COMMENTS

  1. Why would this be a safe Labor seat on federal figures but it’s a safe Nationals seat? Yes the Green votes has a factor here, but surely it isn’t that big of a factor?

  2. Simon Richardson is a nice guy, well spoken too but I’v got no idea about his profile locally.

    I think the fact that the Mayor of Byron will almost certainly get into the Legislative Council will help the Green vote in Byron, depending on how much campaigning she does in her local area. I don’t think it’ll have as big as an effect in Ballina for obvious reasons, Ballina is the place where the Greens really need to increase the vote if they want this seat. Byron is a close contest between the Nationals and the Greens by the looks of it, will be interesting to see how the Byron booths play out too, you’d think most of the Labor vote would go Green here, but who knows.

    Its probably going to be a National Hold, unless some kind of Mega independent pops up. It’ll be interesting to see just how close the Greens get to this one.

  3. The variation between state and federal results here, and in neighbouring Lismore is quite stark. Both would be safe Labor seats based on federal results. If you doubt the level of influence that local candidates and local campaigns have, take a look at these seats.

    Labor effectively haven’t bothered seriously campaigning in this seat, except for the first election in 1988, which was a pretty poor result anyway. They haven’t announced a candidate yet for this election.

    Richardson would have a higher profile than the 2007 candidate John Bailey, but Don Page is firmly entrenched and is a very well-regarded local MP. He was embroiled, along with a number of other figures from all major parties, in a corruption scandal involving land rezonings and political donations in the early 90s, but apparently survived unscathed and it is now largely forgotten.

    This will be a very interesting seat when Page retires.

    Highlight of the 2007 campaign was the young Democrats candidate Ben Smith offering free beer to voters, branded with a customised label. (Sorry, articles with pics no longer online) He was subsequently elected to Ballina Shire Council in 2008 after lodging a last-minute nomination in an uncontested ward.

  5. Nothing from the ALP yet in Ballina or Tweed. Doriean may be running again, but there doesn’t appear to have been any announcements yet.

  8. It used to be said that in a good climate ….with a good candidate……. labor could win any seat in country nsw…….. the difference between the vote in Richmond (federal) and here is striking. in the long run the north coast will be more and more urban . Labor will be competitive here later on. The Nats will eventually hold no north coast seats at a state or federal level

  12. No sign of the Labor candidate at candidates forums or in local press – reason, he’s studying in Sydney, and not bothering to travel back to the electorate to campaign.

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