March 28, 2015
Cause of by-election
Mike Sabin, National MP for Northland since 2011, resigned from Parliament in January 2015 due to “personal issues”.
Margin – NAT 26.85% vs LAB
Sitting MP
Mike Sabin, since 2011.
Other local MPs
David Clendon (Green), list MP since 2009.
Geography
Northern end of New Zealand. Northland covers the northernmost part of North Island, with the exception of the area around Whangarei. The electorate includes all of Far North and Kaipara council areas, and small parts of Auckland and Whangarei council area.
History
Northland has existed since the 1996 election, and has always been won by the National Party candidate. The seat was preceded by Bay of Islands from 1978 to 1993, and by Far North from 1993 to 1996.
Bay of Islands was restored in 1978 after being abolished in 1946. The seat covered the northern tip of the North Island. Neill Austin won the seat for the National Party, after previously winning Hobson in 1975. Austin retired in 1987.
John Carter won Bay of Islands in 1987. He was re-elected representing a seat in the area in 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008. The seat was renamed ‘Far North’ in 1993 and ‘Northland’ in 1996.
Carter resigned from Parliament in early 2011 to take up the position of High Commissioner to the Cook Islands.
At the 2011 election, Northland was won by the National Party’s Mike Sabin. Sabin was re-elected in 2014. He stepped down in January 2015.
At every election from 1996 to 2008, another candidate in Northland was elected as a list MP. In 1996, the Alliance’s Frank Grover won a seat. In 1999, the Green Party’s Sue Bradford was elected after running in Northland. She was re-elected three more times, retiring in 2009. She only ran in Northland in 1999.
In 2002, New Zealand First candidate Jim Peters was elected on the party list. He lost his seat in 2005.
Labour candidate Shane Jones was elected as a list MP at the 2005 and 2008 elections after running in Northland. In 2011, he ran in a different seat, and retired in 2014.
Greens list MP David Clendon ran in Northland in 2014, and was re-elected. He has held a seat in the Parliament since 2009.
Candidates
- Adrian Bonner (Independent)
- Joe Carr (Focus New Zealand)
- Robin Grieve (ACT New Zealand)
- Maki Herbert (Legalise Cannabis)
- Adam Holland (Independent)
- Mark Osborne (National)
- Rob Painting (Climate Party)
- Winston Peters (New Zealand First)
- Rueben Porter (Mana)
- Willow-Jean Prime (Labour)
- Bruce Rogan (Independent)
Assessment
Northland is traditionally considered a safe National seat, but they are being challenged by longstanding New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. His party polled a solid 12.8% of the party vote in Northland in 2014.
Two polls in the seat have previously suggested that Peters has a serious chance of winning the seat. A 3 News poll had Peters on 35%, leading the National candidate by 5%. A Q+A poll had Peters and Osborne tied on 36%. The latest 3 News poll has Peters leading comfortably – 54% to 34%.
Considering these circumstances, the seat could go either way, to National or New Zealand First.
2014 election results
| Electorate Votes | Party Votes | ||||||
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Sabin | National | 18,269 | 52.74 | -4.81 | 17,412 | 48.97 | -1.17 |
| Willow-Jean Prime | Labour | 8,969 | 25.89 | +4.30 | 5,913 | 16.63 | -0.97 |
| David Clendon | Green | 3,639 | 10.51 | -1.59 | 3,855 | 10.84 | -0.94 |
| Ken Rintoul | Focus | 1,661 | 4.80 | +4.80 | 216 | 0.61 | +0.61 |
| Melanie Taylor | Conservative | 1,555 | 4.49 | -0.59 | 2,243 | 6.31 | +1.06 |
| Craig Nelson | ACT | 200 | 0.58 | -0.25 | 162 | 0.46 | -1.19 |
| David Wilson | Democrats | 173 | 0.50 | +0.50 | 64 | 0.18 | +0.07 |
| Murray Robertson | Independent | 96 | 0.28 | +0.28 | |||
| Jordan Osmaston | Money Free | 75 | 0.22 | +0.22 | |||
| New Zealand First | 4,546 | 12.79 | +2.59 | ||||
| Internet Mana | 601 | 1.69 | +0.40 | ||||
| Māori | 210 | 0.59 | -0.20 | ||||
| Legalise Cannabis | 193 | 0.54 | -0.11 | ||||
| United Future | 71 | 0.20 | -0.26 | ||||
| Ban 1080 | 51 | 0.14 | +0.14 | ||||
| Independent Coalition | 9 | 0.03 | +0.03 | ||||
| Civilian | 7 | 0.02 | +0.02 | ||||
Booth breakdown
Booths in Northland have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Auckland and Kaipara council areas, and southern parts of Whangarei, have been grouped as ‘South’. Polling places in Far North council area, and northern parts of Whangarei, have been split into North-East and North-West.
The National Party won a majority of both the party vote and the electorate vote in the north-east and the south, with a smaller vote in the north-west. The National party vote ranged from 43.9% in the north-west to 51.3% in the other two areas. The National candidate vote ranged from 46% in the north-west to 59% in the south.
The Labour Party came second on both votes, but a long way behind National. Labour’s vote was higher in the north than in the south, with an electorate vote ranging from 19.4% in the south to 31.3% in the north-west.
New Zealand First didn’t run a candidate in the seat, but came third on the primary vote, ranging from 11.2% in the north-east to 14.6% in the south.
The Greens candidate vote was 9.8% in the north-east and south and 10.8% in the north-west, while their party vote ranged from 8.9% in the south to 11.6% in the north-west.
| Voter group | Electorate votes | Party votes | Total | % of votes | |||||
| NAT | LAB | GRN | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | |||
| North-East | 51.73 | 28.21 | 9.79 | 51.31 | 17.22 | 11.16 | 11.10 | 8,954 | 25.85 |
| South | 58.95 | 19.41 | 9.80 | 51.27 | 13.83 | 14.61 | 8.91 | 6,972 | 20.13 |
| North-West | 46.00 | 31.25 | 10.78 | 43.87 | 19.24 | 13.22 | 11.61 | 5,465 | 15.78 |
| Other votes | 52.94 | 25.53 | 11.25 | 48.33 | 16.63 | 12.75 | 11.35 | 13,246 | 38.24 |
A vote map for New Zealand First’s vote would’ve been interesting, especially since they’re going to win the seat.
….whoops, ignore my comment.
This is the Election results for Northland. Not a good result for National.
http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/northland-election-preliminary-results
By-elections are a massive anomaly under the NZ system.
The overall partisan shape of the parliament is supposed to be determined by the party vote at the general election. But now that NZ First have taken a seat off National, that proportionality will be distorted.
But this is so easy to fix. Now that NZF has one extra member MP, they ought to lose a list MP, with National gaining a list MP. Alternatively, don’t have by-elections and just fill the vacancy with a member of the same party.
That wouldn’t work. Example: a few years ago, Tariana Turia quit Labour to form the Maori Party, then resigned from parliament and won the seat for the Maori Party in the resulting by-election. Since there were no Maori MPs elected at the previous general election, the only way to restore proportionality would have been to annul the result of the by-election, which is absurd.
There’s a quirky little thing about this by-election: in a way, the real contest was between Mark Osborne (National) and Ria Bond, who was #12 on NZ First’s party list and has now become a list MP to replace Winston Peters. Whatever happened yesterday, Peters would’ve remained an MP (either list or electorate). This is the first time a list MP has won a by-election, so there’s precedents being set.
There’s an interesting explanation of it all here.
http://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/the-northland-by-election-or-the-so-called/
Parties having more seats than they’re entitled to is a known problem called ‘overhang seats’. It just means the size of parliament is enlarged by the number of overhang seats. So in that situation, Labour should’ve been entitled to a replacement list MP. Turia would be an overhang.