Longman by-election, 2018

Yes Ben ON preferences tipped the scales. However the biggest factor was the Lib candidate – the insufferable Wyatt Roy. With him gone the Libs ought to regain this one

Should be an LNP gain because of large ONP vote which will preference the LNP.

Ben
ON like All other minor parties did not allocate preferences. They issued a “Number all Squares” HTV.

The remarkable thin in 2016 was that No minor party allocated preferences to Roy.

In 2010 he was only the Second Coalition candidate in 55 YEars to be placed below ALP by DLP. In 2016 Family FIrst chose not to place him ahead of ALP and issued a split ticket. KAP issued a double sided HTV in 2016 ALP ahead of LNP on one side and opposite on reverse. However nearly every person handing out for KAP handed out ALP preferred ticket on top.

Wine Diamond is correct that a lot of the vote which flowed to Susan Lamb was an anti Wyatt Roy vote and much of this potentially will return to LNP. ALP ran a very personal campaign. Semi Trailer with Roy photographed in a tuxeto stating “Wyatt Roy just does not get it” However at State Election all ALP members retained their seats. Susan Lamb’s speeches in Parliament will ensure that the minor parties will not enter into a deal NOT to Support Liberals will not occur again. Roy offended minor party voters by his support for SSM, Abortion and his lack of empathy for his constituents over economic issues. He worked hard but had policies which were anathema to most of us. His support for Turnbull in the campaign against Abbot was the final straw.

Liberal Party still have not endorsed a candidate.

I think Susan Lamb has been every badly advised not to have adopted a much more pro -worker less morally libertarian position than she has. SHe has put a lot into EDucation and SSM but not much into Medicare, HOsoppitals or Industrial Relations.

If LNP put up a social conservative mixed economy supporting candiadte they will win.

The fact that they have not announced a candidate is indicative that the division in their FDC resulting from Wyatt Roy’s endorsement in 2010 where National Party elements from Woodford Kilcoy out voted Liberal elements from Bribie Island has not abated. The National Party element were displaying mainly tribal loyalty to a family member of a pineapple grower. There was certainly no traditional National Party Values in Wyatt ROY he was closer to Senator Leyonhjelm than he was to Jack McEwen or Doug Anthony.

There will be at least one possibly more Socially Conservative candidate/s standing.

Australian Country Party is meeting monthly in electorate anyone interested contact me on e-mail below. We will be discussing Australian Retailing on Monday night so would welcome a few retailers as guests.

No evidence of activity by Australian Conservatives, Xenophon, One Nation, or ALA since State election. Most of these parties candidates disappear after they lose an election and their party structure at a local level consists of campaign committees for an individual candidate rather than Party Branches, Katter no longer has a functioning branch in electorate All members of the Branch resigned and moved to Australian Country Party after KAP retreated to North Queensland.

Bill Shorten spoke at ALP Rally in Petrie Division (200M from Longman Border) last night so ALP are treating the three seats of Dickson, Longman and Petrie as important. MY prediction at moment is that Dickson and Petrie are possible ALP gains and I am not sure whether Longman will revert to Liberals or not.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Can’t understand the logic in thinking the Libs could win this in the face of a national anti-Lib swing, which if anything I’d think would be stronger in QLD. That’s without even including the personal vote Lamb would have earned in her first term.

Lamb should hold.

Andrew Jackson
Fabulous post Thank you

Agree with pm why ?

Pj
Lamb was not an Australian when elected. Whatever happens she will not be contesting Longman. As for the seat itself this could be anyone’s. Why would you assume a larger anti-lib swing in QLD ?. There is no “Neuman factor” in 2019. QLDers tend to see the LNP as the “queensland” party of sorts. What is going to change QLD parochialism ?

WD – so you say. Even if it was true, didn’t hurt Barnaby or particularly Alexander (who, to me, was punished slightly for being a member of an unpopular government, not because he stuffed up his paperwork).

The Newspoll state by state breakdown doesn’t bode well for the Libs in QLD and while there is no Neuman factor, there’s the Turnbull factor.

Every election people say ‘this seat will buck the trend because of X issue or X candidate’, but it almost never happens. And as for that Queenslanders vote LNP because it’s the QLD party – I don’t subscribe to that at all. Sure, QLD is more conservative than the country as a whole, but there’s no recent polling to suggest the Libs vote deserves anywhere near the 21-8 seat split it has now.

Seriously, if QLD as a state moves 3% toward Labor, how could this possibly go the other way?

Thanks Wine Diamond. PJ I think ALP is in trouble in Longman because I speak politics to locals most days. Even local ALP members recognize the problem that Susan Lamb has. Universal swings are the norm but there is always individuals who vote against a candidate. ON the figures for Longman Susan Lamb won by a fraction .

I do not think in urban areas that politicians have much of a personal vote but every politician has those who will not vote for them personally.

At least two ALP members I have spoken to in last 36 hours did not go to hear Shorten at North Lakes Sports Club.

PJ
Ah the “Turnbull ” factor. If the electorate had any sense at all, it would be the “Shorten” factor. However the electorate proved it had no sense whatever when it elected Kevin Rudd. Consequently i expect Shorten to be elected. However i am willing to bet anything that he will not re contest his office. Someone else will be PM by 2022
In terms of the enneagram Turnbull is a totally fixated type 3
& Shorten is a totally fixated type 5. So there isn’t much to choose from.
What do you think of my chrystal ball ?

WD: Lamb had renounced her British citizenship before the 2016 election, it just hadn’t been processed on time – it certainly has by now. Therefore she’s absolutely eligible to sit at this byelection.

I’d be shocked if the ALP don’t put her back up. And if the ALP don’t hold the seat, though it’s probably the one seat the Libs might put some effort into.

Why a larger swing? Well the Pollbludger is currently suggesting a 7.1% swing in Qld, even if a lot of the vote last time was against Roy, it would seem there’s enough of a swing on to counter that.

I take that back, she hasn’t – now I remember, she’s the one who couldn’t due to family problems.

I’m sure the High Commissioner in London could help out, couldn’t he?

Matt Q
Longman is going to illustrate how influential the leader’s unpopularity is. How accurate the polls are, & whether QLDers have got over Newman.

Honestly, i have no idea which factors will win out. One thing that would certainly help the LNP. is if Hanson ran.

If Lamb hasn’t done everything possible to become eligible, that would appear negligent.

WD
ALP would appear to re-endorsing Lamb. Courier Mail this morning advised that LNP are currently vetting multiple candidates. There will be minor party candidates. See CabooltureHerald on Wednesday for details. Unlike 2016most of these will favour Libs. I have heard on grapevine that Lib candidate will be well known Caboolture business man.

Andrew Jackson
As iv’e posted on the 5 Five thread, endorsing Lamb is huge mistake. I would hope Labor is punished severely for this decision, though i doubt this will happen.

Lamb was at ALLTIMES a completely illegitimate MP. All of Labor’s dissembling to the contrary is complete, & utter BS.

Lamb’s decision NOT to stand down immediately last year is totally reprehensible. As such i would contend that Lamb is an altogether unsuitable candidate.
Labor are certainly doing themselves no favours here.

I’ve seen zero evidence that the voters care about MPs having been in breach of section 44.

WD

Lamb was ‘Australian’ – all MPs since the late 1940s have been. It is that she was also British that creates the problem. This bunyip nationalism (traditionally a Labor point, but also Nat / CP) that says voters shouldn’t have their choice of candidates is weird.

Ben

I think you’re about to see a campaign around the theme of ‘you’re dragging us out to vote because you couldn’t get your house in order; and you weren’t candid about that, as well’. There was an element of that in Bennelong against Alexander; it will be repeated against Lamb and any others who stand again, with the twist that they’ve only resigned because they’ve been forced to, not because they think it the prudent thing to do.

Labor are really up against it here. In addition to everything else mentioned, the electorate overlaps with Pumicestone, where the Labor MP resigned in disgrace (and the Liberals gained the seat back at the following election). Bancroft also had a swing towards Liberals, as did Glass House despite being a marginal “target seat” for Labor. Those were all helped by the big One Nation bloc which by and large did preference the Liberals at that election.

A very real chance of a Lib gain, to the point where I wouldn’t take a Liberal gain as a sign the Liberals have the federal election in the bag either (and I would say the same about Braddon and Mayo).

Like Ben, I have seen little evidence people care about the citizenship thing. If they did Joyce wouldn’t have had a big swing to him nor would Alexander have won so easy. However if Susan Lamb was to lose this seat I think I’d be right in thinking she’d be the first sitting member to lose a by-election? It just rarely happens and rarely does an unpopular government pick up a seat in a by-election. That said this is political world 2018. I expect the LNP to pick this up thanks to a strong One Nation vote. I don’t believe PHON can win the seat but they’ll decide it. I’m not a Turnbull supporter but the right wing commentators on Sky will try to say it means nothing if the government picks this up but if Turnbull is as unpopular as those Abbott folk claim, the LNP should have no chance in Longman with the sitting Labor member re-contesting. As unpopular as Shorten is, the old saying is governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them. Abbott was unpopular too and won.

Steventonian
Agree with your second post unreservedly.
WRT to Lamb being Australian, OK but how was she not just as much British at the same time ?. Therefore it could be argued that she was not strictly speaking Australian, certainly not by the definition of the constitution . It can be argued both ways.

Ben & F the B
The issue for voters will NOT be Section 44. It will be about all the lies, deception, & failure to take any responsibility for the mess these MPs created, or the arrogant, & baseless assertions, about Labor’s vetting processes. Even now all the Labor leaders are blaming their legal advice !. Avoiding responsibility in this way impresses no one.

It is worth referring to the enneagram WRT Susan Lamb. She is almost certainly a highly fixated Type 4. Type 4s are messy in almost all respects. Emotionally, in action, & in their lives. What she has created around herself illustrates this very powerfully.
Hopefully in the near future we will vett politicians carefully to avoid highly fixated individuals. Type 4s are quite fragile, & are therefore quite unsuited as a whole, to our political system. Like most Type 4’s Lamb usually looks a bit teary, & sad.

Tonight I received phone invite to town hall meeting 6.30 PM Monday night at Caboolture Sports Club. Bill Shorten speaking in support of Susan Lamb. Obviously he thinks that we will be having by election. No speculation about date yet. Susan Lamb also holding an NB N town hall meeting later in week at Narangbah. This is the only public evidence of campaigning so far.

And what does Phrenology say about Susan Lamb winediamond? /s

Bennee
The enneagram has nothing to do with Phrenology. Laugh if you like, but it will be taught in schools in my/ our lifetime, & change the world we live in

Susan Lamb has hit the deck running with her campaign. Communiccatjion from her office before she resigned 2) Shorten at town hall meeting 3) Street stalls at Burpengary in late afternoon. Reach tell in Australian this morning confirms my prediction a week or so that LNP will win Longman. Libs still have not endorsed a candidate yet and. Top runner had an extremely low vote instate election when he stood. One Nation candidate going to have a tough job vconvincing sub. Contractors to vote for him.

Enneagrams, like many psychology psuedosciences, makes such broad statements that it basically can’t be tested. It’s as useless as astrology and the Myers-Briggs Types.

Bennee
You could not be more wrong about the enneagram, it can be abused as profiling tool, but it is a path to true freedom.There is nothing in the way of “broad statements”. The enneagram is very precise, & clearly defined.

i don’t know much about Myers-Briggs, other than is now widely used in business staff procurement. If business is prepared to invest in knowledge, or training doesn’t that say something in itself ?

As for Astrology that is a different subject. However i have found the book, Astrology for the Soul, by Jan Spiller to be very useful over the last 25 years. Challenge yourself, open your mind, & the world, or your experience of it might change for the better.

Scott Morrison speaking at Q&A North Lakes Monday night. Amazing how popular Caboolture region has become. We may even have quorum for a House of Rep’s meeting the way things are going. Andrew Jackson apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Bill Shorten just finished at Caboolture SportsClub. A few Dorothy fix questions from ALP staffers. Shorten tried to steer a course which Longman residents would support hospitals Penalty rates lab our hire companies hospitals TAFE but avoided a commitment on Coal.Queensland is reliant on coal so if he wants Queenslanders to support him he had better develop a spine and stand up to the Greens. Andrew Jackson

Should narrowly Go to labor again because of incumbency, And the fact that the incumbent government always gets swings against it in By-elections and the fact that the government is not very popular. While one nation says they will pref LNP. that’s up the the voters. They could very well preference labor (some of the voters) maybe 40% of them for E.G that would be enough to deliver it to labor. It would help the LNP if Wyatt Roy ran, Considering that he has name recognition being the former member.

Enneagrams are different to Myers Briggs thought they were the same….. that explains why I could not reconcile the two…. not to worry will look into it more,,,,, I was an idealist according to Myers. Briggs
now Back to Politics……a seat based on Caboolture should be Labor inclined.Roy won by accident courtesy of a stupid comment by the sitting Labor MP
\suspect Labor retain…… despite the higher onp vote
in the opinion polls……Also doubt Il Duce ( Hanson) can control her own voters
their candidate Matthew Stephen has some problems too

Daniel, sorry to disagree with you again!

The idea that incumbent governments ‘always’ get swings against it is just wrong. We have a recent example with the Griffith by-election in 2014. ‘Usually’ is the more correct term, which is hardly a word you could apply here considering these are by-elections caused by MPs who refused to resign voluntarily when they had the chance. I can’t say for certain, but I’d guess a lot of voters are ticked off about that so any advantage incumbency might have given them is balanced out.

Now I’m not a fan of Turnbull; I think he’s a weak, emasculated leader. However, 51-49 on Newspoll is not really that bad, governments have certainly come back on less. Not to mention the fact that they’re ahead 52-48 in QLD at the moment. Behind? Yes. Unpopular? Not totally.

I see no reason why PHON would preference Labor with its two-faced, equivocating position on coal. While appealing to moderate suburbanites worked well for Labor at the state election where you had all of SE QLD to balance out everywhere else, in a single seat, the issue could prove decisive in hurting Labor preferences.

Name recognition maybe, but entirely of the wrong kind. Wyatt Roy would lose the seat again. He’s the entire reason why the DLP and PHON delivered the seat on preferences to Labor with the highest swing in QLD.

As for my prediction? At the moment I’d say it’s a coin toss, maybe Labor slightly favoured.

I’m predicting a narrow LNP win,

I think we’ve had enough pop psychoanalysis here for a while, hey?

Mick
Pauline = Il Duce LOL !
She can’t control the Blackshirts eh !? LOL !

You are quite correct. How can a seat based on Caboolture not be labor ? Arn’t there a lot of retirees too ?Don’t remember the stupid comment by Sullivan was it ?

I believe the “blackshirts’ & others will take a dim view of Lamb’s deceipt, mess, & drama. Labor would have a far better chance without her, ruthless as that might be. By retaining her they are doubling down in their explicit approval of Lamb’s actions.

It has not been appreciated how aggro voters will get about being forced to vote, simply because of the sloppiness of their MP. Joyce, & Alexander may have escaped much of this, with prompt reaction. North Sydney got pretty aggro over Joe’s Washington by election, unfortunately not enough.
Perhaps this factor will tip the balance ?

My gut is telling me Lamb has little chance, & i doubt BS will help her.

Ben
Just trying to add another dimension to the discussion. They are all just people, with the same choices we all have, to be free, or miserable.
At this time most choose to stay miserable, & asleep. However there are very promising things starting. The next generation could be very different.

Ben agree completely psycho stuff went right over my head. Still no LNP candidate. Was polled last night by EMTS obviously a party funded survey.15mins of my time to give political party info their MPs and candidates should know anyway.

AndrewJackson apjackson2@bigpond.com

Wine diamond, your memory must be failing you if you think Joyce took prompt action. You might recall that he refused to step down as DPM or from Cabinet, and the New England by-election only happened after the High Court had found that he was ineligible. Alexander had also done and said nothing until after the High Court decision. Both men had sat in the Parliament for years without having done anything about their dual citizenship.

Chris
Fundamentally you are correct. However it is a bit of Yes, & no. ALL the MPs were under the illusion this was not an issue until the High Court decision. I won’t defend the sloppiness of their inaction, in the first place. Nor the delusion that because they were born here, there was no problem.

However it is far more reprehensible to defend the wrongs after the judgement was made. We have had to listen to a lot of lies, & hypocrisy on this, from Labor this year.
Perhaps i was unclear, in that i was talking in a relative sense that voter aggro would have increased, as this has gone on longer

Lamb resigned once it was clear that she was ineligible. Yes there was a good chance she was, but I think it’s fair enough to let the process work itself out. I don’t think anyone has lied.

What lies?

Lamb, Keay and Wilson (and Sharkie) all declared on the Register exactly what steps they had taken to renounce their foreign citizenship, and the relevant timing. Do you contend that any of that was false?

Their positions were completely different to those considered in the Canavan case (who had taken no steps whatsoever to renounce their citizenships). The Court made the legal position clear in the Gallagher case, stating for the first time that reasonable steps applied only if the foreign citizenship was irremediable.

There was nothing in the case law at the time of the last election though that would have made their election invalid. Nevertheless Labor moved to refer their cases to the High Court and the motion was voted down by the Government.

Ben & Chris
You may be right in a technical sense, & i appreciate the detailed response. I wasn’t aware the Govt had voted down any motions.
However there is the fundamental reality that all the Labor frontbench claimed their vetting process, was beyond reproach. This was a complete lie, & more importantly it will be seen as such, & worse, by the voting public. Such arrogance, & denial ought to bring it’s own reward. It is simply not good enough

It wasn’t a lie to say their process was beyond reproach. It was a boast which they believed which turned out not to be true.

“And the High Court shall so hold”?

There is a vetting system (I’ve seen it) but clearly it’s not strong enough and will need to be revised.

We’ll find out soon enough whether the voters in Longman etc think the former members should be punished over this. Personally I suspect they’ll consider other issues such as the competing tax plans to be more important and that all sides of politics have been equally guilty over eligibility.

The Federal Govt has the power to make laws re citizenship and immigration in accordance with the constitution. Why not pass a renunciation of citizenship Act.
If you take out Australian citizenship then you forgo all rights to citizenship of all other
countries and for Australian citizens by birth….. allow a declaration to be signed
….. under the provisions of section……xyz …… to renounce the right to be a citizen of any other country besides Australia

Nick
The Australian Parliament has the power to make laws about Australian citizenship but not about British, NZ or Canadian citizenship. All. Parties in parliament have been impacted on by S 44.Surely no one actually thinks that any of the dual citizens was anything other than a loyal Australian.Therefore at next election we should have a referendum to amend S44supported by all parties. Small political parties are especially vulnerable because they have less professional vetting procedures. I saw no sign of campaigning today in tripBurpengary to city.No liberal candidate yes and although front runner for Liberal endorsement is likely to besupported by social conservatives No 2 contestant has same problem as Wyatt Roy very left liberal on social issues.Pauline Hanson did not man her booths in 2016.A candidate can only effectively direct preferences if they put HTVs in voter’s hands. Most of PHON voters are less than knowledgeable about who the Ashby-Hanson candidate is and have less understanding about prefectural voting than any other voting block.They are unlikely to know what PHON has reccomended they do with their preferences.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson2@bigpond.com
Andrew Jackson

Andrew.

It’s a by-election, One Nation will man booths. They have also grown alot since the last federal election.

Will I agree with you about the heater ease manning booths in a by election but have seen no evidence of PHON growth since 2016. Poll results are reflective of noise and noise about PHON comes because of PH & Ashby. ALP & LNP have been active in Longman but PHON candidate has not even had alerted in the paper. His campaigning has been so effective that I need to check his name.

All political parties have difficulty having effective local branchs but a party that has sacked most of its senior members in order to crate a lifetime president registered officer and probably PartyAgent is not going to have competent individuals running to take up subservient positions. PHON has a structure that is more like Stalin’s CPSU or Mao’s CCP. PHON meets all 5 clusters set out by Z. Brezinsky for a totalitarian regime. Andrew Jackson
apjackson2@bigpond.com