Fadden by-election, 2023

The election night 2020 tells you everything you need to know about Amanda Stoker. To me it really seemed as if she was having a little meltdown and got defensive when asked why the LNP lost and went backwards in 2020.

And not to mention her appaling right-wing views. Have no place here in QLD let alone any gold coast seat (which she wanted to run in McPherson originally)

If she wants to run, she can run in Ryan where she lives. She can challenge the Greens because at least she is a local there and wouldn’t be a parachute, but oh, she won’t run because she knows she would be unelectable in a Brisbane seat, pity for her.

I can’t decide who is worse, her or Rennick. Both who are right-wing extremists in my opinion. If the LNP want to win again and especially comfortably like Newman did in 2012 they need people like Rennick, Dutton, Hamilton, and even my MP, out of the party room, because clearly they are damaging their state counterparts because the premier will play on them hard, and she has done it before.

The severely damaged WA Liberal brand cost them 5-6 seats federally in WA. If QLD LNP don’t fix, they could lose 5-6 themselves. Leichhardt would be first to go due to the retiring member.

Peter Dutton’s job will be quite immune to the by-election result as there’s no other leadership contender available, hence he’s still there after the Aston by-election. It will be about saving face as well as reputation and credibility. It’s in his home turf of SEQ. Saying that it’s a test of his leadership is quite far-fetched.

LNP will certainly hold (pending candidate field and quality) but the swing will be the magic number. A small swing of 1% to 2% would be forgettable. A 6% swing like in Aston would be shocking because it hints the decline of the LNP in Queensland – its strongest state and also Dutton’s home state. It would sound alarm bells in the remaining Liberal seats in metro Melbourne as well as Sturt, SA.

As for Amanda Stoker, she is part of the Sky News crew who claim that the LNP lose elections because they’ve gone too left/green/woke. She should run in her home seat of Ryan in 2025!

@daniel T they lost the seats in WA because of Mark McGowans popularity hence why the WA had a similar result in 2021. if McGowan wasnt in those WA seats would not have shifted. in 2022 federally people were voting for Mark McGowan not Anthony Albanese. thats why Labor went backwards in QLD

Reported in the Australian businesswoman Fran Ward is the front runner to win preselection for the LNP. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell and Quadriplegic doctor and former Queenslander of the Year Dinesh Palipana are considering nominating for preselection. Amanda Stoker has ruled herself out.

For Labor there hasn’t been anything reported about what they are going to do. Adrian Beaumont has predicted Labor won’t stand a candidate in Fadden in the Conversation. Political expert Paul Williams predicted that Labor is unlikely to replicate the result from Aston in Fadden. But Williams never expressed the scenario of Labor not running a candidate suggesting Labor didn’t need to win the seat to get a ‘moral victory’.

@Alex J any gains would force Labor into minority at best opposition at worst given the teals took more seats then Labor did.

@leon qld is an outside chance to gain one but no it will not be at risk of similar redistribution as it will be gaining one instead of losing one. so the divisions that are over will shrink instead of expand radically. and given fadden is near the border any loss will not hurt the libs as its a safe seat and surrounded by safe seats. given they are both under quota il be proposing north sydney take in mosman that way the boundary stops at the bay. they are both seriously under quota already and the loss of a seat is only going to make that worse as the quota will be higher.

@potatoes

While I agree that Mosman naturally fits better with North Sydney and Warringah, I don’t see a way to make it work. Warringah and/or Mackellar would have to extend very far into the North Shore across Garigal National Park. What becomes of Bradfield in that scenario?

* with North Sydney than Warringah

@nicholas given that they are under quota already and will be further thats gonna happen anyway. this is a good oppurtunity to fix up the natural borders of those electorates. waringah will need to move into mackellar one way or the other. in fact ive already done that in my draft proposal that ive begun writing. im just waiting on the official numbers from the redistribution in july. if north sydney take mosman thats it most likely sorted. bennelong can then take hunters hill and use the bay as its boundary. anything else goes to bradfield. mackellar will need to move into bradfield regardless. bradfield will then move in berowra

I think the federal budget will likely be seen as a net positive in a fiscally conservative seat like fadden, however, the margin is so hard to overcome that it’s pretty much inevitable this seat will be retained by the liberals. i think a small swing to labor between 1-3% is the most likely scenario, however, it wouldn’t surprise me if these swings are larger in the mortgage belt suburbs around coomera and pimpama.

It was reported in the Gold Coast Bulletin councillor Cameron Caldwell is firming as the favorite to win the LNP preselection to contest the seat of Fadden.

Liberals will lose this! Cameron Caldwell was disendorsed as LNP candidate for Broadwater in 2012, and had allot of negative reviews as councillor.

Why does this party never learn from it’s mistakes? Surely they would have the decency to select Fran Ward here.

A controversial candidate is not a safe bet to win a safe seat. And why would the LNP preselect a candidate who was disendorsed previously 11 years ago?

Frontrunner and confirmed candidate are not the same thing. I’m guessing the by-election will be in mid to late July, after the QLD winter school holidays. No sign of Labor running a candidate at present.

Frontrunners don’t really mean that much since anything can happen in preselections and upsets have happened so many times before.

PM Anthony Albanese visited Fadden today. I think it’s an indication that Labor will run a candidate in the Fadden by-election and may spend some time campaigning there. No information as to who the Labor candidate may be though. https://www.facebook.com/AlboMP/posts/pfbid02ULV3KHZDxXneA1kLrLynEbLdXX5ZDfzKNSRxouVhohQegCgsiCSRTmMiu5e66Y9l

For the LNP two candidates have nominated Gold Coast councilor Cameron Caldwell and emergency doctor Dinesh Palipana. But nominations remain open until Friday. It was reported in the Guardian Caldwell is the frontrunner to get the nod, while Palipana will more likely to get a seat to run for at the next state election. But it doesn’t reveal what seat he would run for (Coomera?). Fran Ward hasn’t nominated so far which makes you think she’s doesn’t have the numbers.

The Liberal National party opened preselections for his Gold Coast seat of Fadden, which Robert has held for 16 years, the day after he announced he would be retiring from federal politics. Nominations remain open, although the field has narrowed down to two candidates, Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell and emergency doctor Dinesh Palipana.

Caldwell is considered the favourite given his ties to the electorate and profile as the council representative for the area, while Palipana is considered a frontrunner for the next state election.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/18/stuart-robert-hands-in-offical-resignation-triggering-byelection-in-queensland-seat

@Politcal Nightwatchman Fadden overlaps with an assortment of different Queensland state divisions. Bonney, Broadwater (Crisafulli’s), Coomera, Theodore and Gaven. All are held by an incumbent LNP member except for Gaven. I suspect they are referring to Gaven which I expect they would give someone new a crack at. Unless O’Connor, Crisafulli, Crandon or Boothman have intentions to step aside.

Gaven and Coomera are both likely to be Key battleground seats in the 2024 state election.

@SEQ Observer

If Palipana was running for a state seat my guess it would likely be Coomera. Broadwater is David Crisafulli’s seat obviously as leader it’s out of the question. Bonny and Theordore are both held by Sam O’Connor who is only 31 and Mark Boothman who is 45. You wouldn’t think they would be looking to depart. Michael Crandon the MP for Coomera will be 70 by the next election, you would think that would be the obvious one to fill in terms of renewal.

Conservative radio announcer Alan Jones has slammed the LNP for lack of renewal. He singled out LNP Mp’s on Gold Coast for a lack of fresh talent. He mention Crandon amongst others who should step down and make way for new talent.

Gavin on a Labor margin of 7.8% is no shoe in for the LNP. Its hardly a fair constellation prize for missing out on Fadden.

Why is nobody mentioning the fact the LNP frontrunner was disendorsed in 2012 as a state candidate? Does nobody realise it’s the same Cameron Caldwell or do people seriously think what he did back in 2012 doesn’t matter now?

He is a controversial candidate and was disendorsed in 2012, why does nobody mention this. This is a bad decision for an increasingly irrelevant party.

Is it the same guy?

Daniel, the supposed incident involving Cameron Caldwell happened over 10 years ago and any allegations that he assaulted someone at the club he attended were unproven.

@ Daniel T in regards to your view about right wingers. the reason they control the party is because you voted out all the moderates for teals and labor

There’s two reported nominees for Liberal preselection it seems. I thought that there would be heaps more nominees given it’s a fairly safe seat. Either the LNP is tight-lipped and quiet about it or they’re gearing up for the QLD state election, which is more winnable than the next federal election. The branches may be scarred from the Aston by-election experience and nervous that the Liberal candidate could become the next Roshena Campbell and lose another seat to the government. I think that’s unlikely.

@Potatoes. The balance tipped into the moderate Liberals’ favour. The right-wingers lost more seats than the moderates did when you factor in: right-wingers retiring and getting replaced by moderates; and right-wingers’ seats (both HoR and Senate) flipping to Labor, Greens and independents.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/liberal-moderates-fare-better-than-conservatives-in-election-wash-up-20220530-p5aphx

There is a local community group called ‘We are Fadden’. They have 130 members. (Probabaly more than the LNP subbranch). I understand that they are planning a public meeting. Hopefully some strong independents will stand up, but they are running out of time. Wouldnt it be a hoot if the seat went Independent.

@ian not really no

Its been reported Fran Ward has put her name in the hat at the 13th hour and nominated for the LNP preselection for Fadden. There has been reports of pressure on the LNP to preselect a woman. Because of how few women there are in the parliamentary ranks. Its been reported that Stuart Robert is backing Ward to be preselected.

@nightwatchmen are you assuming their genders?

@Potatoes, don’t even. Stop trivialising that topic. Now *I’M* assuming that your a Liberal supporting, Deeming supporting person, which if fine. But as a supporter of the major right wing party, you need to understand that you, personally, might have to compromise on some of your personal positions for your party to be electable. Fran Ward would be a good candidate for the LNP for the reasons @Political Nightwatchmen has stated. And @Potatoes, concerning your statement on moderates being eliminated from the party: why are you blaming Labor/Greens/Teal voters? The party is supposed to go to the voters, not the other way around. And the LNP will learn that the hard way if they do not preselect a local person to improve their reputation.

LNP retain. Also probably an LNP win at the next state election (Crisafulli and the LNP are ahead in the polls and Queenslanders have had enough with Palaszczuk).

I’m not but you can’t blame the party for electing a conservative leader when they control the numbers. And why bother electing a moderate when you obviously don’t want them

@potatos The reason why all but a few moderate Liberals were voted out in the 2022 federal election was because conservatives were already controlling the party and dictating party policies BEFORE the election under the Morrison Government, and these moderates were not able to moderate the federal Liberal Party’s political position and continued to toe the party line of the conservative leadership, making the Liberal Party out of touch with the values of these socially progressive seats held by these moderate Liberals. Voters in these seats want a representative and a government who espouse their values, and the federal Liberal Party and the federal Liberal-National Government which these moderates were a part of didn’t. That’s why these socially progressive seats voted their moderate Liberal MPs out in favour of teals and Labor.

The consequence of moderate Liberals being voted out is that the Liberal party will shift further to the right and further alientating voters in its former heartland seats and across the nation, which will make the party lose more heartland seats, leave remaining MPs even more conservative and make the party shift even further to the right. The cycle goes on and on. The only way to break this vicious cycle and death spiral for the federal Liberal Party is to elect influential moderates in socially conservative and thus teal-proof seats, for example Matt Kean may seek to contest and win Mitchell. Matt Kean probably will not have the numbers to become leader of the federal Liberal Party for the foreseeable future, but if the party was left with no other choice because there were so few Liberal MPs in the House of Representatives and even few who want to be leaders, he may get the top job.

Joseph, the strategy could still work even in the ‘teal dominated’ or affluent seats. In both the Victoria and NSW elections, some moderate faction candidates managed to successfully retain these seats against teal challengers. Some examples include Jess Wilson in Kew and Rory Amon in Pittwater.

Ben, please update electoral calendar, July 15th, that is the date of the by-election.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-22/fadden-by-election-to-be-held-in-july-stuart-robert-resignation/102376178

Philip Coorey has reported in the Australian Financial Review that Labor are considering not running a candidate in Fadden. The reason being Labor are no chance of winning and it could be a distraction heading to national conference that will be held in Brisbane. Despite this their facing calls from local branches to give it a crack. A decision hasn’t been made.

Labor would be stupid not to run unless a teal or famous independent ran here. It’s not about winning. It’s about putting pressure on Dutton by bucking the trend and getting a swing towards them. Sky News and allies will accuse Labor of running scared and could cause the LNP to increase their margin if no ALP candidate runs.

It could be 65/35 LNP vs GRN and the conservatives would dub that a success. Only Labor can stop this from happening.

Anything under a 7% margin for the LNP would be a massive win for Labor and a blow to the coalition.

Don’t let this be a repeat of Narracan!

The ALP Conference is 5 weeks later, and given the by election will take up about 2 weeks of local news only, it’s a bit of a lame excuse if that’s the reason (which I doubt it is).

Head Office’s think they can’t run in a by-election without spending lots of $$ – which is pretty silly. They would never spend any $$ in this seat in a general election, so why throw lots at it in a by-election?

Putting a candidate in your opponent’s safe seat is different at by-elections than it is at general elections. At a general election, there’s an opportunity to garner votes and traction for the Senate. It can also be part of building nationwide buzz and credibility. By fielding a candidate in every seat, Labor/LNP can use this to build trust and send a message to the electorate that they are serious about representing all Australians.

The LNP will throw resources and money at Fadden following the LNP’s Aston by-election loss and will use the by-election to redeem themselves. It could be risky for Labor. If there’s a small, subpar swing to Labor or even a swing to the LNP, it will send shock waves. It can be weaponised to humiliate Labor and the LNP will use this as “evidence” of a rejection of Albo/Labor.

I can see why Labor isn’t enthusiastic about running and it’s actually a calculated move. They may want to skip the by-election and open the door for a strong teal/independent/Greens candidate that Labor voters can rally behind. They could also do this to make the LNP look weak when there’s not even a Labor candidate.

@Votante I don’t agree with you in saying that it can be risky for Labor to contest Fadden. According to Kevin Bonham, the average swing for opposition vacancies in by-elections is about 1% to opposition, therefore a negligible swing towards Labor or even a swing towards the LNP in a safe LNP seat won’t be a significant blow for Labor. It will not send shock waves as you have suggested, at least not among psephologists. The fact that Fadden has been a safe LNP seat for 27 years will also neutralise any attempt by the Coalition or Murdoch media to use the by-election result to humiliate Labor or spin this as “evidence” of a rejection of Albo/Labor.

On the contrary, there can be unexpected benefits for Labor if Labor does contest. If there is a significant swing to Labor that reduces the LNP’s margin to the closest since 1996 (7.59% in 1998) and even making it marginal (<6%), it would be a huge blow for the Coalition and Peter Dutton. This will also bring Dutton's perceived popularity in Queensland and his electability into serious question. As Daniel T said, "It’s not about winning. It’s about putting pressure on Dutton by bucking the trend and getting a swing towards them".

The LNP already has billboards in Fadden blaming Mr Albanese and Labor for the rising cost of living. The Coalition is certainly not treating it as a safe seat after losing the Aston by-election. The LNP is expected to use money and resources it normally uses in marginal seats to campaign in Fadden. In a seat that is unlikely to have competitive independents, why should Labor give the LNP a free pass if the LNP itself is campaigning hard? What's more, if Labor doesn't run a candidate, the Coalition and Murdoch media may accuse Labor of running scared or taking the people of Fadden or Queensland for granted, as Daniel T has suggested. Labor are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

In summary, the benefits for Labor contesting the by-election would outweigh the drawbacks and it would be better for Labor to contest the Fadden by-election than not contesting.

@Joseph, it makes sense that the LNP is throwing resources and energy into this and aren’t treating this as a safe seat. It’s two-fold in my opinion. It’s to defend the seat following the Aston by-election loss, as you mentioned. It’s also to try to dent Albo/Labor’s popularity amongst out-of-towners who travel through the Gold Coast. The LNP have a huge headstart.

I mentioned that it could be (not will) risky for Labor to run if things don’t go right, especially since the LNP have a huge headstart. I don’t see a possible Labor absence as caving-in or giving-up. A major party not running candidates in their opponent’s safe seat is a phenomona that has gone on forever. Both sides have done it.

Fadden could be Dutton’s redemption following Aston if LNP soundly defeat Labor, though to be fair, SEQ is Dutton’s home turf. Also, he’d only be holding one of his own party’s seats and not gaining one but his media cheer squad will say something different. The ‘shock waves’ comment is a bit exagerrated. Albo/Labor have their honeymoon period which won’t go on forever and may be waning a bit. If ALP does run, I doubt there’ll be a strong independent candidate who can scoop up over 10% of the primary vote. If there was, we would’ve heard about it ages ago.

In a previous post, I wrote that the 2PP swing will be the magic number if it’s LNP vs ALP. A small swing to Labor would probably be forgettable. A 6.5% swing to Labor like in Aston would be shocking because it hints the decline of the LNP in Queensland – its strongest state and also Dutton’s home state.

A report in the Courier Mail today says Labor will contest the Fadden by-election to appease local branch members who have called for Labor to give it a go. Labor will open nominations for the seat from tomorrow. Good news. https://archive.md/8pSYu

Labor may use Fadden to test the waters in the leadup to the 2025 election and/or try to broaden its base. Now that Mark McGowan is retiring, this could be like a rug pulled out from under the table for federal Labor. WA seats are holding up Labor’s majority. Fun fact – Labor’s net gain in WA at the last election was equal to the net gain across all QLD, NSW and Vic combined. Labor did quite poorly at the 2022 and 2019 elections in QLD. I might’ve mentioned before that in QLD, Albo has almost everything to gain but nothing to lose.

On the flipslide, this may be Dutton’s litmus test or redemption following the last by-election loss. As mentioned before, his credibility and competitiveness are at stake. I’m sure LNP knows that it has a blue wall in QLD and Labor is going after it.

Well it’s only Tangney Labor will write off in 2025. Labor can still hold Swan and Pearce easily and probably Hasluck. If Stirling comes back then that also would notionally be Labor by around 5% I estimate if the exact old Stirling was redrawn.

Labor swept the marginals in WA federally in 2022 like Kim Beazley did in 1998, Tangney was the shock because that usually is a safe seat. And they also made Moore the same.

As for QLD, well I am moving out of QLD in weeks time to Melbourne so my Queensland commentary will be short lived, however I can say that Labor is still unpopular unfortunately up here, LNP has done a massive job on convincing people Labor will put them out if pocket, especially since there are allot of mortgage and renters up here, with cost of living pressures high and interest rates going up, No wonder the LNP hold seats like Petrie and Bonner and even Longman.

It is evident that the outer Brisbane suburbs have trended conservative, but the inner city has gone the other way. Either Gen Z voters aren’t voting Labor in massive droves, or Gen X and Boomers who previously voted Labor like in Kevin07 are just consistently backing the coalition. I suspect it’s the latter.

Labor is still hurting up here from the Gillard years, “No Carbon tax under a government I lead” and Shifty Shortens politics on Negative Gearing and Franking credits was always going to take a few election cycles to recover from.

It’s time for Labor to return to the economic policies of the Hawke/Keating government, this will improve their prospects massively up here.

Labor making Fadden marginal despite all of it’s issues will prove that if Labor fixed all the negatives here, they would have a shot in a seat like this.

Well it’s only Tangney Labor will write off in 2025. Labor can still hold Swan and Pearce easily and probably Hasluck. If Stirling comes back then that also would notionally be Labor by around 5% I estimate if the exact old Stirling was redrawn.

@Daniel

I’d be surprised if Labor is behind in Tangney at the moment unless your referring to a potential unfavorable redistribution. If Anthony Albanese is discussing further gains in WA of Canning and Moore. Then I can’t see why they would be behind in Tangney on current polling. But two years is an eternity in politics so you could well be right.

Its been reported in Fairfax Labor candidate in Fadden last year, Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse and educator, is the front runner to win preselection for Labor. The LNP Fadden preselection will be decided next Saturday with five candidates in the mix.

I think Labor would hold Tangney right now but it wouldn’t be the case in a few months once people are used to McGowan being off the political stage. It was McGowan who won Tangney for Labor. Without McGowan only Swan and Pearce would have been gained for Labor.

I thought the LNP preselection was supposed to be last week, unless I’m missing something. Or it was the deadline to submit nominations for preselection? I’m guessing Fran Ward didn’t put her name forward?

I thought the LNP preselection was supposed to be last week, unless I’m missing something. Or it was the deadline to submit nominations for preselection? I’m guessing Fran Ward didn’t put her name forward?

@Daniel

There was a deadline publicised to nominate which your probably getting mixed up with and Fran Ward did nominate.

“LNP members in the Gold Coast federal seat have been told the Fadden preselection would be next Saturday starting at 1.15pm at the Runaway Bay Community Centre.

They were advised the five candidates were Cameron Caldwell, Owen Caterer, Craig Hobart, Dinesh Palipana and Fran Ward.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/gold-coast/five-candidates-got-through-vetting-and-will-fight-for-fadden-lnp-preselection-next-weekend/news-story/517683db81ba0cd58a72564c9c184739

It was reported in the Australian Financial Review Labor have selected Gold Coast nurse Letitia Del Fabbro as their candidate for the Fadden by-election. Del Fabbro was the Labor candidate at the 2022 federal election.

Gold Coast city councillor Cameron Caldwell has won the LNP’s preselection battle for the federal seat of Fadden.

There’s been a few comments from Albanese and here about Labor’s run in the by-election and it’s ramifications in the 2025 federal election. I would argue though that it’s affects on the 2025 federal election are a being bit overstated. Labor will need a MASSIVE swing for it to have 2025 relevance. There is more importance to this by-election in the upcoming state election.

Fadden is great piece of political geography to poll the strength of Labor in the marginal divisions of Coomera, Theodore, Bonney and Gaven.

Bonney isn’t admittedly as marginal ever since O’Connor has established his incumbency. Bonney might show weakness if LNP are facing poor public sentiment in general.

Crandon in Coomera is much weaker and has incrementally lost margin each election, particularly as new residents have rapidly moved into the division.

Boothman in Theodore is facing down a smaller margin however the concern about the demographic challenges and mortgage-belt dynamics in Coomera aren’t going to bleed over into Theodore. The community in Theodore are a lot more established and settled – no new major housing developments. Theodore is also abundant in affluent residents living in low-density & acreage estates. I suspect its low margin in 2020 was more a consequence of the pandemic bump for Palasczuk.

Gaven is held by Labor incumbent Scanlon and the party would be wanting to know in advance what sort of fight to expect there in 2024. It would be useful for Labor knowing ahead of 2024 that they’re in a strong position in Gaven or not. And whether they can direct some of their Gold Coast resources away from Gaven and elsewhere to Burleigh, Coomera, Currumbin, Theodore. I expect Labor are going to have to put a huge campaign into Gaven if they are to take seriously the recent polling suggesting 50:50 statewide TCP.

Finally this by-election is also helpful in building the profile of Del Fabbro on the Gold Coast, should she wish to also contest in one of the marginal seats in the state election. It also reinforces Labor as a viable Gold Coast political-force in general.

Good analysis @SEQ Observer. Labor does seem to be trying more on the Gold Coast (and the Sunshine Coast). If they can pick up the marginal seats here then they have a lot more paths to keeping a majority, even if the Greens have a dream run in Brisbane and the LNP gain seats in the North or reverse some of the 2017 and 2020 gains. Along those lines I’m very surprised the Gold Coast Greens are ignoring it – their social media shows they’re hitting the streets to do some doorknocking… in Tweed Heads. The QLD Greens need a narrative for where their first gain outside BCC will be if they want to be a genuine political force (at the moment Glass House as a 4 cornered contest seems more likely than a Gold or Sunshine Coast seat).

Federally the narrative will be to test the hypothesis that while Dutton is toxic in Victoria he is strong in QLD and can easily hold the Abbott-Shorten-Morrison seats and threaten others. If Dutton doesn’t have a convincing performance here he’s probably gone after the Voice referendum. The LNP are using the “No” campaign to build a movement but Dutton will walk away if they want to rebrand after. Labor will start measuring up possible QLD gains including Dickson (which Dutton may not be around to contest).

So it will be an interesting byelection for political analysts even if it’s an easy LNP retain.

Federal opinion-polling in Queensland is quite wishy-washy but still doesn’t look for Labor. It may be Dutton’s homestate effect or the 2019 ‘Morrison miracle’ seats have cosied up to the LNP, and still have memories of Shorten (coal, negative gearing, franking credits) and that Bob Brown-led Anti-Adani convoy. It could also because there’s a greater perception that Labor/Greens are brothers in arms.

Methinks the Greens have reached their peak in Queensland. There’s little options for a fourth lower house seat. The Gold Coast Greens are focusing north to defend their BCC-based seats and south to try to win Richmond. It’s incredible they’ve already gotten a Greens candidate for Richmond at the 2025 federal election. It’ll be Mandy Nolan, who ran in 2022.
@John – that could be why they’re doorknocking in Tweed Heads. The Tweed is relatively strong for the Nationals, but not so much for the Greens.

@SEQ Observer, you have some valid points. I thought QLD Labor would suffer at the 2020 election on the Gold Coast, given the hard border seperating businesses from tourists and splitting families. It turns out that QLD LNP really flopped and/or Palaszczuk’s pandemic management was well-recieved. This by-election can be good for testing out QLD Labor’s competitiveness in 2024. As I mentioned earlier- it’s also good for testing out Dutton’s drawpower and federal LNP’s competitiveness in 2025.

@ John There are only two Abbott-Shorten-Morrison seats in Queensland, Longman and Herbert, the latter of which is now on a safer margin for the LNP than Moncrieff. Labor are at their rock bottom in Queensland and Dutton has nowhere to gain another seat unless a series of comically bad events come out of a seat like Blair.

*Reading your post back now I suspect you were referring to those kind of seats across the country rather than in Queensland specifically, but it was a bit hard to tell at first.

Van Manen has invested big in some outdoor-media in neighbouring Forde. Not sure if this is related to the Fadden by-election though.

Think there might be some internal recognition that LNP’s margin in Forde has finally slipped away on the back of Albanese’s post-election honeymoon.

Other thing to note is Van Manen’s wife Judi is almost guaranteed another crack in the overlapping marginal state division Macalister in the upcoming State election. It seems LNP want to start reinforcing Van Manen name-recognition now. The 2024 state election campaign really does seem to have begun.