Fadden by-election, 2023

Do expect a big swing here reflecting the broader national mood and attitude towards the Coalition. However there will be different magnitudes of movement on either side of the Coomera river representing two distinct constituencies.

The constituents north of the Coomera River are at the centre of Queensland’s rapid population growth via interstate migration. I would note that Fadden is the #2 most populous division by enrolment in Queensland. I expect these voters to behave much similarly to classic swing voters and wouldn’t be entrenched Coalition voters. At the most recent election, the Pimpama booths were all ready in favour of Labor on 2PP (close to the national average).

The other huge factor north of the Coomera river is that these suburbs have some of the highest proportions of young families in the state. Very high levels of people 0 – 34 relative to the rest of the state. Its median age is very similar to the divisions of Brisbane that elected the Greens in 2022. Only major caveat is that the Greens divisions of Brisbane are very low in children and families, much higher in young renters and students. Best performing booth for the Greens lies close to the part of Fadden with the lowest median age.

Below the Coomera River are the affluent canal-front residents in the established suburbs of Hope Island, Paradise Point & Runaway Bay. These are voters which would naturally be rusted onto the LNP and are unlikely to budge much. I’m even skeptical that the residents of these suburbs would find a “teal” independent appealing. I think there is more of a progressive attitude in the southern beachside suburbs of the Gold Coast.

There is one final standout group in Fadden which are the voters living in “affordable”rental accomodation around Labrador that would be attending Griffith University. Greens perform similarly well to Pimpama.

ONP generally do well in Fadden, often beating the Greens (barring most recent election). But I wonder if they are going to bother with this one or not.

Greens candidate Sally Spain, a quality person, regularly contests seats for the Greens in the Gold Coast and hinterland areas

I reckon One Nation could get quite a strong result here. With UAP and LDP deregistered, the minor right-wing lane seems wide open. They comfortably made the 3CP last year (hitting 17%!) despite coming 4th on primaries.

Hard to see anything but an LNP retain here, even post-Aston. Comparing the normalised-Senate and House 4PPs, there’s… 1-2% in personal vote for Stuart Robert. Could be there’s not that much swing available there.

I don’t see much advantage to Labor in running a candidate. Their primary vote is too low. Better off trying to get to a mainstream Independent to run.

With by-elections in this seat and very likely Cook too, will Mitchell be next? Morrison and his closest allies are essentially politically finished now. Perrottet could use an opportunity to transfer to Mitchell and could provide a credible alternative to Peter Dutton as leader. He’s ideologically very hard right like Dutton which will appeal to the party room and the base yet able to soften his image and demonstrate he’s pragmatic from his time as NSW premier which would appeal better to the wider electorate than Dutton, something Dutton has yet to demonstrate.

I think it’s a very intriguing idea, Perrottet switching to federal. If he does want to take it on, I’m not sure the timing supports him going yet. Rather, I think he’ll aim for a relatively low-key transfer at the general election in 2025.

Let Dutton take all the heat with the Voice referendum. Let Dutton have to reckon with the teal seats. Let Dutton fight the first term Albanese government; a par result would have him making gains yet falling short.

Then it’s time to shine.

@Dan M @ AlexJ
The next redistribution will mangle up the Northern Sydney seats like never before. Especially the current Berowra territory (though Mitchell is not immune to this either – I assume especially so if NSW drops to 46 seats). Perrottet would want to wait until then and then decide if it is worth it, rather than get into Mitchell early but possibly having to go scrambling immediately afterwards anyway.

@Dan M I am not aware of any reports that suggest Perrottet has any intention to switch to federal politics. If there is indeed a Mitchell by-election, I think Matt Kean will contest the seat to realise his ambition to switch to federal politics.

Perrottet is a better fit for the existing Mitchell than Kean and I suspect this would carry over from any division of the former Berowra seat. What may count against him was his switch out of Hawkesbury (which would make up a significant quotient of the new Mitchell.

Conversely, Kean may be a far better option for the redrawn Bradfield, which would take in the major population base of his current seat of Hornsby, than the existing member Fletcher who studiously ignores the north-west portion of his seat. Whilst this would still be a Liberal leaning seat; it would be distinctly more marginal than Bradfield has been historically.

The pivotal question is whether Leeser would want to continue and where would he choose to contest. Whilst a less ideal fit for a redrawn Bradfield than Kean, he would be a better fit than Fletcher. Should he contest the redrawn Mitchell, then Perrottet may find it “uncomfortable”.

Perrottet controls the local branches of Mitchell which basically locks Kean out of that seat.

@Joseph
Matt Kean is not a good fit for Mitchell, even if he is unlikely to lose electorally.

Kean’s appeal is in the socially progressive “teal” or “teal-like” (e.g. Higgins/Ryan) seats. The borderline of this “Teal turf” I think is Berowra Creek, and anything to the West of it would not be very suitable for his characteristics. (I remember someone said that the area from Hornsby to Berowra is similar to the less urban parts of Ryan.)

However, Mitchell is THE home of Hillsong, and is very much rich christians. I also believe there is a decent Chinese constituency which are somewhat conservative by nature (Though they may appreciate that Kean isn’t as hawkish as Dutton). Either way, better choices exist.

Obviously the upcoming redistribution would complicate things for someone like Kean with all the movements and how Hornsby/Pennant Hills could possibly be placed. Bradfield is best IF Fletcher retires but I wouldn’t bet on it for now. I wonder if Bennelong is the seat for him. I expect Bennelong to expand to include Beecroft and Cheltenham after the next redistribution. It is also right next to North Sydney. Yes, it voted no on SSM, but:
1. the last Liberal member was a moderate too, and
2. I did hear that there has been a demographic shift since then with new apartments (can’t remember where I read that).

I’ve lived in the north west of Sydney for much of my life, and the prominence of Hillsong (and Pentecostals more broadly) is always grossly exaggerated. Pentecostals are a tiny sliver of not just the overall population in Mitchell, but also of the Christian population in Mitchell.

I notice that the Liberals hold very few metropolitan coastal seats now. Is there any interstate seat this is similar to? Maybe Cook? Flinders? Monash? I always find Queensland difficult to read.

A Mitchell and Cook by-election might be interesting, but I’ll get onto that in a second.

I don’t think anyone can see Labor winning Fadden. As simple as that. I think the only condition to Labor actually running here ‘competitively’ would be if there was no credible independent, which we will have to wait and see. If/when Labor puts forth a candidate and if/when they begin campaigning in Fadden, the result would be very interesting to watch. Any swing to Labor would be disastrous for Dutton, especially in Queensland, and at a by-election where the opposition is supposed to do well. I’m predicting a swing to Labor in Fadden for a number of reasons (I’ll explain), but I think there will be around a 5% swing to Labor, putting Fadden into the marginal column.

Firstly, the national opinion polls are averaging now at around a five or percent swing to Labor. If you believe RPM, that is closer to a nine percent swing. Assuming Albo doesn’t absolutely plumet in popularity, the average swing is a good baseline. But onto of that, Queensland is expected to swing hard towards Labor, I suppose as a ‘counteract’ to the previously strong swings to the Liberals. The most recent state-by-state polling has Queensland having a state-wide swing of 15% to Labor! Now I ever much doubt it is this large, and of course different region will swing differently, but it can’t be that far off the mark. Shorten was supposed to get in with a 2% lead in 2019, and that basically reversed: an around 4% deviation. Off the back of a 10-15% swing, Fadden would be Labor held, marginally.

Without looking too much into it, I think Labor can win Fadden, but only just, and with a lot, A LOT, of hard work, with high profile ALP members like Plibersek, Wong and Chalmers on the ground, as well as state members (I recall Labor has a few local QLD Parliament members around that area?). And the local branch and candidate hitting the pavement, door knocking the whole of the community, especially around what seems to be the richer, more Liberal voting area of Coombabah. That being said, I still don’t expect Labor to win, unless the LNP pick a dud candidate (which they probably won’t).

I think a ‘Morrison and Mates’ by-election Saturday would be good, with Morrison, Robert and Hawke resigning. I wouldn’t expect any of them to flip, but I would expect swings to Labor in all three. Having already covered Fadden, I’ll talk about Cook.

I can see Cook both becoming marginal, and not becoming marginal depending in the severity of the campaign by each party, and if there is an independent as well. We can use the NSW State Election data to help out with predictions. Within Cook are the electorates of Cronulla, Miranda, Rockdale and a bit of Heathcote. Cronulla is the only safe Liberal seat, and I think this area is what is holding back the seat from being marginal. Miranda is much more volatile and sensitive to swings. Rockdale has a strong Labor showing, even on the San Souci peninsula, although I expect Steve Kahmper (is that his name?) to have quite a high personal vote. And if I recall correctly, Labor won, if not came close to winning the Sutherland booths in Heathcote. But in all of Sydney, including The Hills, this is probably the most rusted on, most receptive to the Dutton-Liberal Party region of the city. Plus, I think in Cook, people might have supported Morrison because of his high profile, he was literally Prime Minister, and that might have topped some undecided voters over the edge.

Finally, I’ll cover Mitchell. I can speak much more in depth as I live on this area. It has definitely changed a lot; I’ve talked about this before, but I think there is a long-term shift here. I doubt Alex Hawke will resign, as he went to such great lengths to avoid a pre-selection and it seems ridiculous that he would resign less than a year since, but it is still an interesting thing to think about. As with Cook, I will be using State Election data to inform my reasoning. Here, I can only see Mitchel being a ‘fairly safe seat’, that is, between 6 and 10%. Castle Hill and Kellyville had some of the greatest swings to Labor in the whole state, with their margins both more than halved. The problem for Labor is that in both, the Liberal party still got over 50% of the first preference vote, so Labor’s priority should be to push that down, should a by-election even occur.
The first silver lining for Labor is that Mitchell, unlike Castle Hill and Kellyville, goes south of the M2 into Northmead which is in the Winston Hills electorate. This area typically voted Liberal with a similar degree (only slightly less) than the rest of Mitchell, but at the state election, Labor managed to flip a few booths around Northmead with huge swings towards the party, including in pre-poll.
Labor’s second silver lining is that Dural and Kenthurst (in the Castle Hill electorate) are not in Mitchell. At the 2023 election, booths here voted 72 2PP for the Liberal Party, an approximately 10% swing from the previous election (2019 figures at 82% in Kenthurst and around 90% at Middle Dural!) and the exclusion of these rusted on areas will help Labor. Also, the influx of younger families into the area who are more concerned about education for their children will really help the ALP is they can manage to capitalise on that (many of the schools in The Hills are a 200% capacity).

I’m intrigued by the notion of Perrottet running in Mitchell. He’s in Epping, of which only a small portion of that electorate in also in Mitchell – unless he lived in a small sliver of his electorate in North Rocks, I doubt he’d live in Mitchell unless he is already out-of-area for Epping. That mightn’t be much of a big deal to most, but it might matter to some. He would be a good fit as a ‘classical Liberal’ and a very religious Catholic, but I can’t see him wanting to trigger a by-election for Epping only two years after his election. If he did run, either at a by-election or challenging Hawke in 2025 or later, he could definetly win considering the right-wing of the LNP is well known to have control of The Hills Shire branches, which is why Matt Kean will DEFINETLY NOT RUN FOR MITCHELL. I don’t think any of Hornsby overlaps with Mitchell (or if there is some, only an extremely small amount) so I can’t see him being a good, or even possible alternative for Hawke given the local branches. I agree with @Leon he is more of a ‘teal liberal’ and he would be much better suited to Berowra or even Bradfield depending on how the redistribution committee decides to change the boundaries. I do wonder if the drama with The Hills Shire Council would/will have an effect on voter sentiment – Labor may choose to capitalise on alleged corruption in the Liberal dominated council and say that extends to state and federal Liberal territory in that Shire. It will be interesting to see if ICAC comes back with any results, and to see if Hills residents actually care enough to even consider voting for an alternative, let alone Labor.

So, in all three of these electorates, I’d still favour the LNP to win, but they should all have swings to Labor. Despite the Liberals probably winning in Fadden, Cook and Mitchell, the predicted swings to Labor of around 5% would spell disaster for Dutton; he’s supposed to capitalise on the anti-government factor at by-elections. Literally every single factor benefits Labor. The polls are sky high for them, Albanese is very, very popular, and Dutton is the polar opposite, plus in the 2022 election, Morrison wasn’t viewed as badly as he was in the aftermath, he had similar Preferred Prime Minister ratings. People weren’t overly happy to be voting for him, but they were anxious about what a Labor government might look like, especially in Mitchell, Cook and Fadden type communities. They would have held their noses to vote LNP, but now, many of them like what the Labor government is doing – the ALP is slowly drifting right towards the centre, which favours these communities who are the most likely to benefit from some of Labor’s more ‘controversial’ policies like the continuation of that Stage 3 tax cuts. Overall, should all three eventuate, they’d be interesting contests to watch.

Verity Barton should be the candidate for the LNP.

Maybe Crisafulli also could resign as state leader and jump ship?

Agree Daniel, Verity Barton as an ex-state MP would be a good candidate. If she is from the moderate or centre-right faction that would be even better.

I think it would be quite risky for Crisafulli to jump ship. He does have the profile and is also seen to be someone who is not too conservative/outspoken on social issues. However, he is doing a good job as Opposition Leader and swapping him out for someone else would make it easier for state Labor to win another term in office. Crisafulli may be like ex NSW Premier Dom Perrottet, someone who is from the right faction but able to moderate his views and focusses more on community matters.

@Daniel T: Verity Barton relocated to London, UK in 2018 and still lives there now, so she can’t be the candidate.

David Crisafulli said he had no interest entering federal politics. When his name came up as potential candidate for the federal seat of Brisbane. It was at the time he was looking for a seat to return to state politics. It’s a lame suggestion and not even remotely realistic being state opposition leader who is contesting the next election.

Anyone who thinks Verity Barton would be a good candidate is kidding themselves. Barton made a series of missteps as an MP during her state political career. And gave ammunition to Crisafulli to roll her in preselection for the state seat of Broadwater. The fact Barton won her seat for two terms was due to how safe Broadwater was for the LNP and is no reflection on her quality as an MP.

@Bajoc: “Within Cook are the electorates of Cronulla, Miranda, Rockdale and a bit of Heathcote”. The state seat of Heathcote has NO overlap with the federal seat of Cook. The federal seat of Cook only has overlap with the state seats of Kogarah, Rockdale, Miranda and Cronulla. You can view which NSW federal seats overlap with which NSW state seats using the NSW Electoral Districts Map Viewer here:
https://portal.spatial.nsw.gov.au/portal/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=f2c3502ac16d45db8e3cd0e0192e228c

At the 2023 NSW state election, Labor votes in Kogarah were inflated by the profile of local MP Chris Minns as the Opposition Leader who was likely to become Premier after the election. The Labor votes in Rockdale could be inflated by local MP Steve Kamper’s personal vote. The Liberal votes in Miranda were damaged by the bullying allegations facing the local Liberal MP Eleni Petinos and a now-dumped plan to bulldoze nine Jannali homes for a car park. If the Liberals ran a candidate who is well-known and well-respected in the Sutherland Shire, the Liberal votes in Miranda at the Cook by-election will likely be better than at the 2023 NSW state election.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1681jANxwa-oi8-e9ErUsUt38t0fqgw26/view?usp=sharing

Above is my predicted redistribution for the 5 Northern Sydney Seats assuming NSW gets 46 seats. Calculations are REALLY rough. I abolished Berowra (because Bradfield ends up with Berowra, I do expect a new seat covering Kenthurst, Dural and some other stuff), and renamed North Sydney as Mack.

I am inclined to think the knock-down effects of this will mean nobody wants Mitchell/Berowra or any new seat in the general area until the redistribution is sorted (Be it Kean, Perrottet or someone else). Maybe they will keep Mitchell mostly intact. Maybe they will not and decide mangling the thing up is the only option. I do want to chuck Dural, Kenthurst even some Box Hill with Hawkesbury LGA (I hate the current Macquarie) but that doesn’t seem likely to happen on 46.

For the sake of keeping it about Fadden, I will ask: would QLD have a possibility for a similarly radical redistribution before 2025? Enough of one that makes Liberal people not want to go into Fadden?

Leon, unless Queensland exceeds 30.5 quotas of population in the next entitlement determination (which I believe is unlikely), then the state will not undergo a redistribution before the next election. The 7-year rule requires one in March 2025, but since it is too close to the election date it will be postponed/deferred until after the election is held.

Amanda Stoker and Fran Ward names have been thrown up. Stoker from what I know is based in Auchenflower which is based in the federal seat of Ryan. So she would be a good old fashioned parachute. Peter Dutton made it clear he wants a local after what happened in Aston.

From what I read Ward is a business woman who is based in the Gold Coast. Ward unsuccessfully contested the Bowman preselection. Ward is apparently president of their local FEC.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/speculation-amanda-stoker-could-put-her-hand-up-for-stuart-roberts-seat-following-resignation/video/1a59345b264ad8491930b9566407f290

Prediction: Liberal hold. If a strong independent is running, this could cause an upset.

Labor may either run dead here or not even field a candidate. The margin is so high that LNP can withstand a swing and so even a parchuted candidate won’t do as much damage as one in Aston would. The LNP PV may hold firm because LDP and UAP are now deregistered. If One Nation is running, they could scoop up LDP and UAP voters, otherwise LNP will have more votes to court.

@ Votante, agree I predict a Liberal hold as well. this is too much of a demographically mixed seat for a Teal to win. However, i would be interest in the results in the mortgage belt parts of the seat around Pimpama and Coomera if Labor does run to see how Labor is perfoming with that key demographic.

If Berowra is abolished, it is likely that Greenway will end up straddling Blacktown and The Hills LGAs. Such a seat would have been comfortably safe for the Liberals pre-2023, but would be marginal on 2023 figures.

Depending on the exact boundaries and resulting margins, it may actually be the Labor Party that ends up with preselection headaches.

@Leon

I like your map! It’s very much in line with some of the ideas I’ve had. However, I do hope Cherrybrook is spared from being transferred to Bradfield. I’d also be curious to hear whether residents of St Ives would approve of being placed in Mackellar.

Also, is that “KK” written on Scotland Island? xD

When was the last time the Coalition/LNP was seriously challenged by anybody else in a federal Gold Coast seat? I don’t see that changing, even with the federal Coalition’s woes at the moment.

It would be pretty funny if Amanda Stoker was parachuted into the seat, but surely the federal Coalition have learned *SOMETHING* from their defeat in Aston.

@Nicholas

Cherrybrook will not be in Bradfield according to my map (It borders it though). If there is any danger of that happening then it means the house has to expand! I even struggled to put Pennant Hills in there!The Bennelong-Bradfield boundaries here mimic the State Epping-Wahroonga boundaries.

Regarding Mackellar, there seems to be very little option. Mackellar/Warringah collectively have to expand and Cremorne/Neutral Bay is not enough! I don’t want Warringah to Middle Harbour twice (a la 2007) so that means St Ives gets shifted. I doubt St Ives’ voting pattern/demographics is much different from something inland like Belrose.

And yes, that is “KK” on Scotland Island xD

@Political Nightwatchman

Let’s run Stoker in her home seat of Ryan and see how that turns out!

@Leon

Oops, yep I misread your map regarding Cherrybrook – Seeing both Bennelong and Bradfield extend to the Pennant Hills area distorted my sense of distance in that region!

On Mackellar, the more straightforward approach would be to have Warringah extend further into North Sydney LGA, although I understand some people might not be happy with that. So I think you’re right.

@Nicholas

I initially wanted Warringah to stop at Mosman. I think there is a quite a difference between Mosman and the areas directly next to it. Also, Cremorne and Neutral Bay aren’t really terrible for Labor and keeping/putting it in North Sydney/Mack could help Labor win a notional 2pp against Libs. (I was unsure about Tink at the time)

After the schtick Labor tried to pull in Balmain in 2023, I decided that I won’t ever try to relegate Tink into 3rd even if doing so means a Labor win in the seat. Hence I became less offended about Cremorne/Neutral Bay being in Warringah. I don’t want any more though!

Side note:
Apparently Warringah used to extend into Cammeray back in 1949-1954. Given it included Middle Cove in 2007, I wonder if a full circle is possible by also putting in Castlecrag and Northbridge! (Even though it would look terrible! And I do NOT want it!)

@Leon

Ha, in my many musings about electoral boundaries, I did have that thought about Warringah before! It would be living up to its name – “Warringah” is an indigenous name for Middle Harbour!

@Nicholas
Also regarding your point about Pentecostals in Mitchell.
The high school I went to was a public high school, but i remember it had decent amounts of conservative Asian Christians (incl. Hillsong followers on Facebook).
For a young demographic, quite a lot of people were quite anti-LGBT!
Decent numbers of people were from Mitchell. (though admittedly people from Bennelong, Bradfield and Berowra also attended. Even some Reid people too)

If there’s also a Cook by-election, I sense the swing away from the Libs will be larger than in Fadden.
*Pending candidate field and quality.

Albo/Minns are more popular in NSW than Albo/Palaszczuk are in QLD.
Morrison’s margin in Cook is quite inflated by his personal vote north of Port Hacking, mainly the San Souci Peninsula up to Kogarah. These areas shifted into Cook at the last redistribution and they swung strongly to Morrison in 2019. They were traditionally Labor-leaning.
Labor overperformed here at the 2023 state election for reasons that others above have mentioned.

Labor may just test the waters in Cook since there’ll be a redistribution and Cook will expand westward, which will solidify the Liberal 2PP, or northward, which will shave off the 2PP margin. I can’t see Cook getting abolished nor expanding south past the Royal NP. If it expands northward, Labor could be competitive in 2025.

I expect a large swing here but I’d say the LNP are favourites QLD is much better for the LNP then basically any other state at the moment so it probably the best state to have a by-election in for the LNP.

@Leon

I’ve attended a few churches around the north west of Sydney, and what you’ve described aligns with my observations. Asian Christians *are* a significant demographic in Mitchell with very conservative attitudes. But they span across several denominations, whereas a lot of commentary just jumps to a narrative about Pentecostals.

Correction to my above comment.
It should be: Morrison’s margin in Cook is quite inflated by his personal vote north of the Georges River (not Port Hacking).

Morrison ‘s personal vote is quite inflated everywhere.. should be something like 60/40 across the electorate

If opinion polling & Aston are anything to go by, Labor have actually gained the support of households who mortgage since the last election, this is 47% of this electorate in particular (6% rent).

Labor should run here (and lets face it if they ran a candidate in the Groom by-election they have no reason to avoid one here) to gouge how much of this support will have stuck post-budget.

There’s no chance of Labor winning this seat, but a they’d be looking for a bigger swing.

@ Angus, Aston is a more established area these days. However, in the past it was a classic seat. The southern part around Rowville has a higher % of mortgaged homes than the Australian average but often those people are towards the end of paying off their mortgages as much of the housing dates back from the 90s to early 00s. However, the results around Coomera/Pimpama will be telling if they have increased their support in the mortgage belt.

*classic mortgage belt seat

Nimalan has a good point. Aston is more established and has older housing stock. Mortgage holders who bought 20 or 25 years back will feel less pain from interest rate rises than those who bought in recent years as their loan amount is much smaller, and perhaps because their children are adults. The median age in Aston is much older. Mortgage belts are continually shifting.

North of Coomera River is a mortgage belt as SEQ Observor mentioned. The median age is much lower and the housing stock is much newer. The typical person here is younger and earns less than in Aston.

If Labor somehow win an historic upset here, Dutton will be forced to resign and the party will go into infighting like the WA Libs did from 2018-2021. And settle with Andrew Hastie, Hastie will be Zak Kirkup 2.0 and lose in the biggest landslide in Australian history come 2025, because the party will become more hawkish and lurch more to the right under him and won’t appeal to anyone under the age of 40.

The Liberals must hold this is they want to stay as a credible party and ever win again. This is do or die for the Liberals. This is not Aston and losing this will be more than humiliation.

LNP will hold if they pick the right candidate who isn’t parachuted from the CBD, I feel Amanda Stoker will blow this if selected.

LNP know their fate if they screw this so they won’t let it happen, LNP retain.

Stoker’s based in Auchenflower now? Interesting. Pre-election she had her office in Springwood (i.e. Rankin), I believe.

(I know Labor allocate their Senators to areas around the states where they don’t hold the House seats – anyone know if the LNP do the same?)

@alexj yes i believe so because it gives them a presense in marginal seats they dont hold as a way of giving them that added bonus of recognition when they try

@AlexJ makes a good point. Stoker did have her electorate office in Springwood at the bottom of Rankin, not very far removed from the cusp of Fadden (a slither of Forde was sandwiched between).

Notable because it was a very high visibility location, right next to the highway that a lot of Fadden residents would have seen on their commute to Brisbane. The signage on this office was remarkably (almost comically) big and prominent. Many Fadden residents, particularly in the mortgage belt of the North regularly perform this commute. There is a common phenomena within Fadden and Forde that real-estate agents refer to as “dual-city families”. These are the many households that have members working across both Gold Coast and Brisbane and going in either direction of the M1 each day. Stoker would of course have a lot of face-recognition from this.

Other comment I would make about Fadden is that it is one of the least politically engaged electorates in the country, much like its neighbour Forde. So Stoker is perhaps straddling the line between enough recognition from the public to be electable while at the same time unlikely to receive much criticism about being “parachuted”. Punters are likely to just assume Stoker was a part of their community simply by seeing her in their car all the time. They might not even be able to consciously recall where they’ve seen her face, especially if they were more interested in the nearby Hungry Jacks or any other distractions.

Labor can probably expect some level of swing here, although I doubt to the degree needed to win here. A Cook by-election I expect will be a more interesting affair at least for Labor.

Is there any talk of Labor sitting this one out or are they going to go for it?

If labor’s best chance of winning the next election is to have Dutton as LNP leader, then they would be best off not running a candidate here to keep the pressure off

Is this the first time this century (since 1999) that a by-election is held in a seat named after a former-prime minister?

I don’t think an argument that relies on an electorate being stupid is a winning one. Disengaged, sure, but that comes from cynicism, and that is only amplified if a parachute does occur.

Really, it’s an open question as to whether Stoker being a parachute would be a matter of importance to the electorate. But to say that they wouldn’t know sounds rather like dismissing the intelligence of voters. And that’s a dangerous thing for any party to do. The electorate is smarter than a lot of political observers think – they may be fooled on policy but not on a question of whether someone is a local or not. And you can bet it would be a talking point should Labor intend to make a contest of the election with Stoker as the LNP candidate.

Adda it was not at all my suggestion that the electorate or its constituents are stupid. And the basis of my claims about its political disengagement comes from a survey of national political attitudes by electorate (albeit, a dated survey). Also my comments about punters being more interested in the Hungry Jacks is no indictment of the punter. Just a realistic assessment of the dense and competitive outdoor-media landscape of Springwood. A driver’s attention would be divided between road signage & signals, prominent businesses including fast-food and outdoor media, not to mention traffic, their passengers, their own internal monologue and their car stereo. Given that the Senator office has not been present for about a year now, it’s pretty fair to say that a lot of punter’s recollection of the office, its signage and Stoker would be fairly fuzzy by now unless they were especially politically interested.

Agree though that the matter being of importance to the electorate is an open question. I believe the negative sentiment will exist and be amplified by their competition. My hunch though, is that it will matter to a less degree than Aston but unclear by how much less. I also think that LNP would be wise to avoid the complication and the risk by just selecting a local.