LIB 7.5%
Incumbent MP
David Hawker, since 1983.
Geography
South-western Victoria. Wannon covers the southwestern corner of Victoria, including Warrnambool, Portland, Ararat and Hamilton. Wannon covers Pyrenees, Ararat, Corangamite, Glenelg, Moyne, Southern Grampians and Warrnambool council areas, as well as parts of the Northern Grampians.
History
Wannon is an original federation seat, having been created for the 1901 election. It has mainly been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, with the exception of a number of short periods when it was held by the ALP, with the ALP last holding the seat up to the 1955 election.
Wannon was first won in 1901 by Free Trade candidate Samuel Cooke. Cooke was a former minister in the Victorian colonial government, and he held the seat for one term before heading overseas in 1903.
He was succeeded in 1903 by another Free Trader, Arthur Robinson, who was a former colonial/state MP in the Victorian Parliament. Robinson held the seat for one term, losing in 1906. He went on to return to the Victorian Parliament and serve as a state minister.
The ALP’s John McDougall won Wannon off Robinson in 1906, campaigning against Robinson’s anti-union views. McDougall was re-elected in 1910, but lost in 1913, and failed to return to the House of Representatives in other seats at the 1914 election, a 1915 by-election and the 1917 election.
McDougall was replaced in 1913 by Liberal candidate Arthur Rodgers. Rodgers served as a minister in the Hughes government from 1920 to 1922 He held the seat until the 1922 election, when he lost to the ALP’s John McNeill. Rodgers won the seat back in 1925, before again losing to McNeill in 1929. McNeill served as a minister in the Scullin government, before losing the seat yet again in 1931.
The United Australia Party’s Thomas Scholfield won the seat in 1931, and held it until 1940, when he lost to the ALP’s Donald McLeod. McLeod held the seat for most of the next decade, losing it in 1949 to the Liberal Party’s Daniel Mackinnon.
Mackinnon only held the seat for one term, with McLeod regaining the seat in 1951. Mackinnon went on to win the neighbouring seat of Corangamite in a 1953 by-election, and held it until 1966.
At the 1954 election, McLeod was challenged by Liberal candidate Malcolm Fraser. McLeod defeated Fraser with a 17-vote margin.
In 1955, McLeod retired, and Fraser won the seat with a comfortable margin.
Fraser was a right-winger within the Liberal Party, and sat on the backbenches for a decade before joining the ministry in 1966. He served first as Minister for the Army, then Minister for Education and Science, and then Minister for Defence.
In 1971, he resigned from the ministry in protest at John Gorton’s interference in his portfolio, triggering a party room vote which saw a tied vote, and John Gorton was replaced as Prime Minister by William McMahon.
Fraser served as a minister in the McMahon government and on the opposition frontbench in the first term of the Whitlam government. After Billy Snedden’s loss in 1974 Fraser challenged for the leadership. Under Fraser’s leadership, the Liberal Party obstructed Gough Whitlam’s government in the Senate, which eventually led to Whitlam being dismissed by the Governor-General in late 1975, and Fraser became Prime Minister.
Fraser won the 1975, 1977 and 1980 elections, but lost in 1983, and retired from Parliament shortly after.
The 1983 by-election was won by David Hawker, also of the Liberal Party. Hawker served as an opposition whip from 1989 to 1990 and as a frontbencher from 1990 to 1993, and again as a whip until the 1996 election.
Hawker served as a backbencher in the Howard government from 1996 until the 2004 election. Hawker was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives after the 2004 election, and served in the role until the 2007 election.
Candidates
- James Purcell (Independent)
- Ralph Leutton (Independent)
- Dan Tehan (Liberal)
- Allan Marsh (Independent)
- Judith McNamara (Labor)
- Jahzeel Concepcion (Family First)
- Lisa Owen (Greens)
- Robert O’Brien (Independent)
- Katrina Rainsford (Independent)
Political situation
The Liberal Party holds this seat relatively comfortably, and despite the margin not being massive, it seems very unlikely the ALP could challenge the Liberal hold on Wannon.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Hawker | LIB | 44,834 | 52.56 | -5.27 |
| Antony Moore | ALP | 30,852 | 36.17 | +4.32 |
| Lisa Owen | GRN | 5,953 | 6.98 | +2.63 |
| Daniel Pech | FF | 3,663 | 4.29 | +1.31 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Hawker | LIB | 49,020 | 57.47 | -4.90 |
| Antony Moore | ALP | 36,282 | 42.53 | +4.90 |
Booth breakdown
Wannon is made up of eight local government areas, with tiny parts of two others. The largest proportion of the population lives in the predominantly urban City of Warrnambool.
The ALP won a small majority in the Ararat area, with the Liberals winning in all other parts of the seat. They won over 60% in the Corangamite and Moyne council areas, with smaller majorities in other parts of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Warrnambool | 8.73 | 55.71 | 15,081 | 17.68 |
| Corangamite | 5.46 | 68.13 | 9,498 | 11.13 |
| Southern Grampians | 5.50 | 58.21 | 8,908 | 10.44 |
| Glenelg | 5.76 | 52.96 | 8,840 | 10.36 |
| Moyne | 7.54 | 63.39 | 7,856 | 9.21 |
| Ararat | 5.95 | 49.61 | 6,467 | 7.58 |
| Northern Grampians | 6.84 | 54.16 | 4,579 | 5.37 |
| Pyrenees | 6.64 | 51.79 | 3,539 | 4.15 |
| Other votes | 7.76 | 57.37 | 20,534 | 24.07 |
Katrina Rainsford ran for Libs at state level last election. Ararat looks more to the goldfields political tradition hence its higher Labor vote but the Labor vote fell there in 2007 because Labor’s candidate was not from there unlike in 2004. Irish origin Catholics on the coast used to be pro-Labor but shifted overnight to the DLP after the split.
Independents are swapping preferences but can’t see them getting ahead of Labor:
http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/rainsford-hits-back-deal-bolsters-independent-alliance/1915908.aspx
Libs have spent far more on their campaign here than previously and are concerned by the independents but it would still be difficult for the independents to poll well enough in Warrnambool to get ahead of Labor.
The leading independent is hostile to the expansion of blue-gum plantations which is a major issue in the northern parts of the seat.
also much bad blood in the Liberals:
http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/top-liberals-say-wannons-too-safe/1918352.aspx
My prediction: Liberal retain. Hard to see any of the independents getting ahead of Labor, but they will muddy the waters sufficiently that I’m unwilling to predict a 2PP swing.