Throsby – Election 2010

ALP 16.8%

Incumbent MP
Jennie George, since 2001.

Geography
Southern Illawarra and Southern Highlands of NSW. Throsby covers parts of Wollongong and Shellharbour councils around Lake Illawarra, including Port Kembla, Dapto and Albion Park. It also includes a distinct areas in the Southern Highlands, covering the most populated parts of Wingecarribee Shire, stretching as far west as the Hume Highway and covering Bowral, Mittagong and Moss Vale.

Redistribution
Prior to the 2009 redistribution, Throsby was a seat entirely based in the Illawarra. The 2007 boundaries included the rest of Shellharbour LGA as well as parts of Kiama council area, including Jamboroo, although not Kiama itself. Prior to the redistribution the entirety of the Southern Highlands was included in Hume. The redistribution cut the ALP margin from 23.5% to 16.5%.

History
Throsby was first created for the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP. It has always been won by the ALP by a large margin, with well over 60% at every election since 1993.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Colin Hollis. Hollis had previously been elected in Macarthur for one term in 1983. Hollis retired in 2001, and was succeeded by former ACTU President Jennie George. George has held the seat ever since.

Candidates
Jennie George is retiring at the 2010 election. The ALP are standing CPSU national secretary Stephen Jones, who was preselected as part of a wide-ranging factional deal handing out seats between the factions in Western Sydney and the Illawarra. The Liberal Party is running Wingecarribee councillor Juliet Arkwright. The Greens are standing truck-driver Peter Moran, who stood for the seat in 2007.

Political situation
The redistribution combined safe Liberal areas in the Southern Highlands with very safe Labor areas in the Illawarra. While this seat could become vulnerable to the Liberals at their peak, it is still very safe for the ALP, and the redistribution instead locks up very reliable Liberal-voting areas in a safe Labor seat. Jones should have no trouble retaining this seat for the ALP.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jennie George ALP 52,275 64.98 +9.97
Stuart Wright LIB 18,266 22.71 -9.40
Peter Moran GRN 7,308 9.08 -0.97
Scott Deakes CDP 2,598 3.23 +2.97

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jennie George ALP 59,099 73.46 +9.64
Stuart Wright LIB 21,348 26.54 -9.64

Results do not take into account the effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown

The new Throsby is divided into two very clear areas: the strongly pro-Labor areas around Lake Illawarra and the strongly pro-Liberal areas in the Southern Highlands. One quarter of voters live in the Southern Highlands, and in that area the Liberals polled almost 57% in 2007. I have divided the Illawarra booths between Wollongong and Shellharbour council areas. The border between those two council areas follows Lake Illawarra. Those parts of Wollongong council area in Throsby mainly include the centres of Port Kembla and Dapto. In both areas the ALP polled over 70% of the two-party-preferred vote.

Polling booths in Throsby. Southern Highlands in green, Shellharbour in blue, Port Kembla-Dapto in yellow.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Port Kembla-Dapto 8.66 77.70 30,042 41.27
Shellharbour 8.84 73.19 24,671 33.89
Southern Highlands 9.63 43.03 18,077 24.83
Other votes 9.09 70.91 13,302
Polling booths in Throsby, showing results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Throsby, showing results of the 2007 election around Lake Illawarra.

16 COMMENTS

  1. Ben, I don’t do the Twitter thing, but the Greens in NSW polled 14% in the latest Galaxy. It’s all up on the galaxy website.

  2. And congrats for reaching the half way mark Ben. Hard to see Labor losing Throsby even in a Liberal landslide. It’s a strange redistribution though; hard to see what the highlands and the Illawarra have in common.

  3. I want to see what views the candidates have on Huge Developments in the Southern Highlands like Sutherland Park. It is a developers windfall they will earn $100m and stuff up our rural outlook.

  6. I feel this redistribution has disenfranchised the people of the southern highlands. Another labour coup.

  8. If you’re suggesting that the AEC is somehow politically motivated I cannot disagree strongly enough. The AEC is entirely independent and does not take into account the political shifts. That the Highlands are now in a safe Labor (Throsby) rather than a safe Lib (Hume) seems to make little difference – your vote would have been in a safe seat either way.

  10. Oh, come off it, Hamish. If the AEC is not politically motivated, why are the two corrupt major parties allowed to get away with scaring the voters into thinking that we have a first-past-the-post system?

  11. The AEC runs elections, counts ballots, does redistributions and runs school days on the importance of democracy. They do not control political media releases or get involved in policing political advertising – nor should they (and I have never seen anyone try to pretend Australia has a FPP system). Of course the AEC is not politically motivated. To think so is to follow garbage conspiracy theories. Please show me one piece of proof that the AEC is in any way politically motivated.

  12. This is not to say, however, that the AEC fulfils its mandate to the maximum extent that it could – but then resourcing is always a problem for electoral commissions, and they could always do more with more. Peter Brent has written on this (and Antony Green I think). That it is a quite conservative organisation may make it seem that it favours the major parties (such as when complaints of influencing the vote with suspect material are concerned), but by and large it does the best it can. Truth in advertising legislation is always problematic, even more so around elections. If people have concerns then they should be raised to the JSCEM inquiry that takes place after each election so at least they are then public.

  13. And as for disenfranchising Southern Highlands voters – how has it done this? I fail to see how being in a safe seat actually disenfranchises people (ie; taking away their vote), although many may feel they have a limited political voice. But would Shultz be any worse (or better) than George/Jones? When people stop voting for major parties (and more seats become either marginal or are more volatile) then attention will be paid by those parties to more seats.

  14. True Stewart, but I think to say that the AEC alters redistributions to favour a political party, as Drew seems to assert, is unfair and blatantly untrue (as one would note going through the history of redistributions). The AEC is just another Government organisation that does its job – to run elections and maintain the electoral roll, which includes redistributions as populations move – within the confines of its budget. It is hard for it to speak on matters such as advertising for fear of being accused of getting involved in the political process. I think the AEC does its job in a minimalist but fair fashion. Drew, the AEC is not your target.

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