Stirling – Election 2010

1. Stirling is a difficult seat for observers to understand – it’s more complex in character than possibly any other WA seat.

   This is for a number of reasons. Firstly, a simplistic analysis yields a “west – Liberal, east – Labor” dichotomy along Wanneroo Road, but in fact the suburb of Yokine has always leaned Liberal, while Innaloo and Balcatta have sizable Labor votes. Secondly, it’s easy to assume that because Perth metro is growing at a rapid rate mostly from mining-related immigration, that Stirling is part of this. Stirling is for the most part a stable, even gradually declining, area over time with most of the growth occurring further north. Thirdly, any attempt to stereotype Stirling ignores the vast range of areas within it – it is a complete picture of mainstream urban Australia within one single electorate. And finally, subtle local-level trends are busily transforming the seat in ways which will probably end up cancelling each other out, but will probably long-term favour the Liberals. These trends are:

   * Higher land prices meaning renters in Balcatta who voted Labor are likely moving to other areas beyond the electorate’s boundaries.
   * Changes in the Scarborough area with younger, affluent, but less conservative people moving into apartments there.
   * An “empty nester” effect in North Beach, Carine and Hamersley making those areas slowly trend more Labor without losing their Liberal tendency (although North Beach’s trend in this direction may be dented by the selling off of Homeswest stock near Marmion Avenue).
   * New estates in Osborne Park and northern Dianella which have made those areas strong Liberal.
   * Changing demographics in the poorer areas of Balga and Mirrabooka – the Aboriginal population have largely moved elsewhere while the Africans have moved in.

   The apathy vote is actually very strong in Stirling, at least in part because of the ineffective nature of local media in the area (especially compared with Curtin, Perth and Fremantle to the south), and hence local issues tend to dominate elections in Stirling. The two contenders are Michael Keenan, the two-term Liberal MP and former Amanda Vanstone staffer who has never identifiably done anything for the area (and several community groups and the local council have suggested he claims credit for the work they actually do) but puts out regular newsletters and advertises all over the electorate on bus shelters, and Louise Durack, a disability officer who lives in the western part of the electorate. Both candidates are in their 30s, and both have been successful at getting stories into the local paper (to whatever extent anyone reads the 4 or 5 pages of local news it contains).

   The Greens get a set 10% or so in the electorate (strongest in those empty nester areas and at Scarborough) but are neither seen nor heard apart from at elections. No other party ever does significantly well in Stirling – even One Nation flopped there during the 1998 election.

   Areas which swung to the Liberals in 2007 were Trigg, due to dissatisfaction with the then-Labor state government over a local primary school; Osborne Park because of the demographic change I’ve described; and an area around Mirrabooka because of a Keenan/Howard pledge to build a bridge at a highway intersection nearby. All other areas swung to Labor. This did not quite correct for the 2004 swing, where working-class areas all over Perth swung heavily against Labor while wealthier areas went softly towards them.

   What do I expect? As the apathy vote dominates, Labor will have to work hard to get its message out, particularly in the eastern part of the electorate; Keenan will have to show what he has actually achieved. And the Greens, no doubt, will put out a single brochure a few weeks before the election. But I think there may be just enough momentum in the overall electorate to get Labor over the line this time. I think Keenan benefitted last time from Howard being the incumbent PM – this time Labor is the incumbent, and that always matters when apathy rules and the stakes are as close as they are in Stirling. If I have time, I’ll write guides for the other northern suburbs electorates.

2. Can anyone please tell me what Keenan has done?

3. pippmc – opposed that rotten MRRT. That should be enough here.

4. Keenan is in more or less continuous campaign mode with billboards of his face everywhere. Increasing affluent electorate particularly in the big Scarborough booths. Will probably morph into a fairly safe Liberal electorate as time goes by.

5. Keenan’s non-stop advertising and recent letter drops (in the last 3 weeks my house has received about 10 letters) has been enough to ensure that I will not vote for him.

   Luckily, I am not leaning towards Liberal’s current policies anyway so it isn’t a dilemma for me.

   The sheer waste of paper that his campaign provides is perhaps his only contribution that I know of. The fact that his one-sided campaign letters are supposed to convince me is also a bit insulting. The same could be said for Labour I guess. The only party that has given me some half-informative reading was the Greens, where they actually outlined their policies without attacking or even mentioning any other party.

6. My prediction: 2-3% swing to Liberals.

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