ALP 14.7%
Incumbent MP
Jill Hall, since 1998.
Geography
Lake Macquarie and Central Coast regions of New South Wales. Shortland covers the suburbs of Lake Macquarie council on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, as well as northeastern suburbs of Wyong LGA. Key suburbs include Belmont, Charlestown, Gateshead, Swansea, Budgewoi and Lake Munmorah.
Redistribution
No changes were made to Shortland.
History
Shortland was created in 1949, and has always been a safe Labor seat, with the ALP polling over 60% at every election except for six elections when the Liberal Party polled very well nationally (1966, 1975, 1977, 1996, 2001, 2004).
The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Charles Griffiths, an official for the Australian Railways Union. Griffiths held the seat for the entirety of the 1950s and 1960s, and retired in 1972. He was replaced in 1972 by Peter Morris. Morris served as a junior minister from the election of the Hawke government in 1983 until he was promoted to Cabinet in 1988. He was dropped from Cabinet in 1990 due to lack of factional support and retired in 1998.
The seat was won in 1998 by Jill Hall, who had been elected to the state seat of Swansea in 1995. Hall has held the seat for the last decade.
Candidates
- Phillipa Parsons (Greens) – Lake Macquarie councillor.
- Deborah Narayanan (Liberal)
- Jill Hall (Labor) – Member for Shortland since 1998.
- Peter Williams (Secular Party)
- Milton Alchin (One Nation)
Political situation
The ALP will retain this seat.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Jill Hall | ALP | 48,525 | 56.73 | +7.40 |
Jon Kealy | LIB | 26,620 | 31.12 | -4.69 |
Keith Parsons | GRN | 7,097 | 8.30 | +0.15 |
Les Wallace | CDP | 1,655 | 1.93 | +1.93 |
Matthew Reeves | FF | 1,644 | 1.92 | -0.49 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Jill Hall | ALP | 55,379 | 64.74 | +5.50 |
Jon Kealy | LIB | 30,162 | 35.26 | -5.50 |
Booth breakdown
I have divided the booths into four areas. Those booths contained in Wyong LGA have been grouped together, while the booths in Lake Macquarie LGA have been divided into three areas named after the major suburbs in each area, being Charlestown, Belmont and Swansea. The ALP polled over 60% in all these areas, ranging from 61% in Belmont to 69% in Swansea.
Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Charlestown | 9.93 | 64.81 | 25,241 | 29.51 |
Wyong | 6.63 | 65.89 | 19,578 | 22.89 |
Belmont | 8.03 | 61.98 | 15,269 | 17.85 |
Swansea | 8.18 | 69.27 | 9,421 | 11.01 |
Other votes | 8.08 | 63.19 | 16,032 | 18.74 |
Lake Macquarie councillor Phillipa Parsons is the Greens candidate here.
Lawyer Deborah Narayanan is the Liberal candidate.
My prediction: 2-3% swing to Liberals.