ALP 20.9%
Incumbent MP
Harry Jenkins, since 1986.
Geography
Outer northern suburbs of Melbourne. Scullin covers southern parts of Whittlesea council area and parts of Banyule and Nillumbik council areas. Suburbs include Morang, Mill Park, Plenty, Thomastown, Lalor and Epping.
History
Scullin has existed since the 1969 election, and in that time has always been held by the Labor Party, and specifically by the Jenkins family.
The seat was first won in 1969 by Harry Jenkins Sr, who had previously been a state Labor MP since 1961. Jenkins was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives upon the election of the Hawke government in 1983. He retired from Parliament in late 1985.
The 1986 Scullin by-election was won by Harry Jenkins Jr, son of the former MP. The younger Jenkins served as Deputy Speaker from 1993 to 2007, and he was elected Speaker in early 2008 after the election of the Rudd government.
Candidates
- Ivan Stratov (Family First)
- Harry Jenkins (Labor) – Member for Scullin since 1996 and Speaker of the House of Representatives.
- Gurm Sekhon (Greens)
- Max Williams (Liberal)
Political situation
This is a very safe Labor seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Harry Jenkins | ALP | 51,680 | 63.32 | +4.30 |
| Charles Williams | LIB | 19,910 | 24.39 | -6.52 |
| Linda Laos | GRN | 4,918 | 6.03 | +1.00 |
| Tania Byers | FF | 3,859 | 4.73 | +1.34 |
| Peter Hude | DEM | 868 | 1.06 | +1.06 |
| Simon Steer | CEC | 386 | 0.47 | -1.17 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Harry Jenkins | ALP | 57,830 | 70.85 | +6.06 |
| Charles Williams | LIB | 23,791 | 29.15 | -6.06 |
Booth breakdown
A majority of Scullin’s population lives in Whittlesea council area. The remainder is in Banyule and Nillumbik. Those areas are grouped as “east”, with the Whittlesea area divided into “central” and “west”.
The ALP won large majorities in the centre and west, in the 70-80% range, but only won with 55% in the east of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 5.24 | 70.74 | 33,946 | 41.59 |
| West | 7.04 | 81.09 | 22,941 | 28.11 |
| East | 5.83 | 55.52 | 11,115 | 13.62 |
| Other votes | 6.45 | 66.41 | 13,619 | 16.69 |
What are the strong liberal booths due east in scullin? Seems a bit odd
Those would be the Plenty and St Helena booths.
The very eastern tip of Scullin extends into semi-rural areas, which tend to vote Liberal.
(for now, anyway…..the arc between Diamond Creek and Whittlesea is gradually filling in with new housing estates)
Where is a list of the candidates for scullin 2010 ?
I thought they would be available by now.
The list of candidates is available on the AEC website. It will take me a few days to go through every seat profile and update the candidate list.
My prediction: 1-2% swing to Labor. Actually I really don’t know about many of these safe Labor seats in suburban Melbourne. I’m just assuming a general small swing to Labor across all of them.