Riverina – Election 2010

NAT 14.6%

Incumbent MP
Kay Hull, since 1998.

Geography
South-Western NSW. The seat particularly covers the Riverina region running along the Murrumbidgee river. It stretches from the Victorian border near Tumbarumba, all the way to Carrathool in the far west of the state. The largest city in the region is Wagga Wagga, along with the western centres of Griffith and Leeton. It also covers the towns of Tumut, Gundagai, Junee, Wyalong, Narrandera and Temora.

Redistribution
The redistribution saw Riverina expand to both the east and west. It lost the Cootamundra council area to Hume. It gained Tumut and Tumbarumba council areas from Eden-Monaro and the remainder of Carrathool council area from Calare.

History
Riverina is an original federation electorate, although it was renamed as ‘Riverina-Darling’ from 1984 until 1993. It has been dominated by conservative parties, namely the Country/National Party since its emergence in the 1920s. Having said that, the ALP has managed to win the seat on a number of occasions, most recently in 1977.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate John Chanter, who had been a member of the State Parliament since 1885. At the 1903 election, Free Trade candidate Robert Blackwood defeated Chanter by five votes. An appeal saw the result overturned, and Chanter won the ensuing by-election in 1904.

Chanter continued to serve as a Protectionist until 1909, when he refused to support the Fusion of conservative parties to form the Liberal Party, and instead joined the Labor Party. He managed to win reelection for the ALP in 1910, but lost his seat in 1913 to Liberal candidate Franc Falkiner. Chanter again managed to win the seat back in 1914, and Falkiner went on to serve one term as Member for Hume from 1917 to 1919.

Chanter left the ALP in 1916 over the issue of conscription and joined the new Nationalist Party. He held the seat for them until 1922, when he was defeated by William Killen, candidate for the new Country Party.

Killen held Riverina for the Country Party until his retirement in 1931, when he was succeeded by Horace Nock. Nock served as a Minister in the Menzies government in 1940, but lost his seat later that year to ALP candidate Joseph Langtry.

Langtry was re-elected in 1943 and 1946 before losing Riverina to the Country Party’s Hugh Roberton in 1949.

Roberton held Riverina for sixteen years. He was made Minister for Social Services in 1956, serving in that role until 1965, when he left Parliament to become Australia’s Ambassador to Ireland. The ensuing by-election was won by Adam Armstrong, who held the seat until 1969, when he lost to the ALP’s Al Grassby.

Grassby was appointed Minister for Immigration following the election of the Whitlam Labor government in 1972, and was a fierce advocate of multiculturalism in the role, however he failed to win reelection in 1974, losing Riverina to the Country Party’s John Sullivan.

Sullivan held Riverina for two terms, losing to the ALP’s John FitzPatrick in 1977. FitzPatrick lost in 1980 to the National Country Party’s Noel Hicks.

Hicks held Riverina for most of the next two decades. The seat was renamed Riverina-Darling in 1984 but reverted to its original name in 1993. Hicks retired in 1998, and the Nationals candidate Kay Hull retained the seat. Hull has held the seat ever since, and has recently announced that she will be retiring in 2010.

Candidates

  • Tim Quilty (Liberal Democrats)
  • Rhonda Lever (Family First)
  • Matthew Hogg (Independent)
  • Michael McCormack (Nationals)
  • Craig Hesketh (One Nation)
  • Robyn Hakelis (Labor)
  • Andrew Negline (Liberal)
  • Sylvia Mulholland (Christian Democratic Party)
  • David Fletcher (Greens)

Political situation
There is no prospect of the ALP gaining the seat, with the main contest being between the Liberal Party and National Party. The Liberal Party took the neighbouring seats of Hume and Farrer from the Nationals in 1998 and 2001 respectively following the retirement of the sitting Nationals MP. The Liberal Party stood for Riverina most recently in 1993 and 1998, with Liberal candidate Bill Heffernan polling 23% in 1993 and David Kibbey polling 21% in 1998.

The Liberal Party holds the state  seat of Wagga Wagga, which covers a key centre of Riverina, while the Nationals hold the state seat of Murrumbidgee, which covers most western parts of the seat. The contest will probably depend on the calibre of candidates preselected by the two parties.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kay Hull NAT 52,779 62.57 -4.47
Peter Knox ALP 24,471 29.01 +4.48
Ray Goodlass GRN 4,130 4.90 +0.58
Craig Hesketh ON 1,837 2.18 -1.77
Gary Johnson CEC 1,141 1.35 +1.31

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kay Hull NAT 55,868 66.23 -4.62
Peter Knox ALP 28,490 33.77 +4.62

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Riverina is covered by thirteen local government areas. I have divided these into six areas. I have kept the three most populated LGAs separate, namely Wagga Wagga, Griffith and Leeton, and have grouped the remaining LGAs into North-East, South-East and West.

The Nationals won with large majorities in most areas, winning between 64% and 70% in most areas. The one exception was in the South-East, namely Tumut and Tumbarumba, where the ALP polled 54% of the vote. It is worth noting that these areas were contained in the ultra-marginal seat of Eden-Monaro in 2007 and would have received far more attention from the ALP than any other part of Riverina.

The Greens performed much better in Wagga Wagga than in the rest of the seat, polling almost 7% compared to no more than 3.3% in the rest of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Riverina. Wagga Wagga in green, South-East in orange, North-East in red, West in purple, Leeton in yellow, Griffith in blue.
Voter group GRN % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Wagga Wagga 6.89 65.31 29,012 39.54
Griffith 2.96 65.20 11,666 15.90
North-East 3.29 68.30 10,656 14.52
West 2.51 70.00 8,631 11.76
South-East 2.82 45.45 7,685 10.47
Leeton 3.09 64.77 5,728 7.81
Other votes 5.78 68.28 15,221
Results of the 2007 federal election in Riverina. Click to enlarge.
Results of the 2007 election in Wagga Wagga.
Results of the 2007 election in Griffith.
Results of the 2007 election in Leeton.

17 COMMENTS

  1. Last time the Libs contested Riverina (’98) they polled 21% to Labors 26% and the Nats 36%. Being ’98 that was the One Nation election where ONP polled 12%. In general I think that the One Nation vote will trend more toward the Nats than the Libs. I’ve read that the Nats are keen to preselect a young woman to avoid the stereotype of preselecting older out of touch men (that lost them Farrer and Hume). I reckon the Nats to just hold on but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wagga and the South East went to the Libs.

  2. Grasby’s victory was a triumph of personality as by the 1960s Riverina was a natural conservative seat. Fitzpatrick’s 1977 victory was due to the addition of Broken Hill (he was member for the abolished Darling), the 1980 result was partially due to Fitzpatrick’s retirement but also I suspect particular problems for Labor in Broken Hill where their vote slumped notably, Noel Hicks had a local govt profile in Broken Hill but I wonder if Labor suffered from a backlash over the Latham affair where a local counil supervisor refused to pay a union fine. Hicks had a remarkable personal vote and Riverina and Riverina-Darling should have been won by Labor on the basis of the Senate vote in the 1980s.

  3. If I remember correctly Grasby’s loss was one of very few that election and he lost because of disgraceful racist tactics by the Country Party candidate.

  4. There are six nominees for the Liberal preselection, but only two have been publicly identified; Wagga developer Charles Morton, and Tumut Deputy Mayor John Larter.

    Craig Hesketh is reported to be standing again for One Nation.

    The article also says there are six nominees for the Nationals preselection, however this earlier report names just five: ‘Michael McCormack from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue from Barmedman, Bill Maslin from Gundagai, Wesley Fang from Wagga Wagga and Mark Hoskinson from Kikoira’. No sign of any young women there.

  5. The other four nominees for the Liberal preselection have now been named: ‘Former Wagga City councillor Julie Elphick, marketing manager Karla McCormack, secondary school teacher Paul McCormack and company director and brand manager Andrew Negline’.

  7. Labor have preselected ‘a woman in her 20s who works in community services in Wagga and has been a member of the ALP since she was 19’, however they won’t name her until June 25.

  10. Hogg’s got his own (somewhat badly-designed) website, too, with a massive title “YOUR INDEPENDENT CANDDIDATE” (spelling is his).

    I may be surprised, but no matter how many people turned up to his campaign launch I can’t see him getting much vote. Peter Andren got elected the first time with about 30% after reading the local TV news for decades, and other NSW independents have been mayors of regional centres (eg Richard Torbay, Dawn Fardell) or ex-Nationals. From his bio and a little googling of him, this guy doesn’t seem to have that kind of high profile.

  12. Mr McCormack is not such a strong candidate, he has a checkered past in business and with MTC. The Nationals should have chosen a female candidate a young up and comer. Not a person who is looking to rest on his laurels.

  13. Michael McCormack was fired from the local paper in 2002 and was also the laziest board member at the Murrumbidgee Turf Club. Rumours are that he is just looking for a cushy job. I am very disappointed in the Nationals they should have thought of the future. A woman member would have been a very wise choice. Warren Truss wake up ! Get more woman within the party the Nationals will at least look like they are trying not to become a dinosaur.

  14. Good luck Andrew Negline ! I hope the people of the Riverina see through the veiled cloak of false speak from Michael McCormack

  15. Labor have two alternate HTV cards, preferencing either Libs or Nats (both have them near the bottom, above only One Nation). Downloadable here.

  17. Hahaha “here is no prospect of the ALP gaining the seat, with the main contest being between the Liberal Party and National Party.” I literally laughed out load to that.
    Labor spent $13,000
    Liberals and Nationals over $500,000
    Labor got much more of the vote than the Libs.

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