ALP 11.3%
Incumbent MP
Bernie Ripoll, since 1998.
Geography
Oxley covers the southwestern suburbs of the City of Brisbane and eastern parts of the City of Ipswich. Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee.
Redistribution
Oxley lost territory in the City of Ipswich to the seat of Blair, although this did not include any polling booths. It also lost territory on its eastern boundary to the seats of Moreton and Rankin. It gained those parts of Ryan lying on the southern shore of the Brisbane River, including Riverhills, Westlake, Jamboree Heights, Sumner and Jindalee.
History
The seat of Oxley was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. After first being held by the Liberal Party for a decade, it has almost always been won by the ALP, except for the 1996 election, when it was won by disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, who later formed the One Nation party.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden.
Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. He joined Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlam’s resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980.
Hayden faced a leadership threat from former ACTU president Bob Hawke, who had entered Parliament in 1980. Hawke failed to win a ballot in 1982. In early 1983 Hayden resigned as leader and was replaced by Hawke, only hours before Malcolm Fraser called an early election. After Bob Hawke’s win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament.
The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Les Scott. Scott held the seat for the remainder of the Hawke/Keating government, up to the 1996 election. The Liberal Party preselected former Ipswich councillor Pauline Hanson as their candidate in 1996. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Party’s name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing.
Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. The party had a strong result at the Queensland state election in early 1998 and she was predicted to perform strongly at the next federal election. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Despite coming first on primary votes, Hanson lost due to the ALP and Liberal Party swapping preferences.
Hanson continued to lead One Nation until 2003, running for the Senate in 2001 in Queensland and as an independent for the NSW Legislative Council in 2003 with the support of the original One Nation party, against the breakaway One Nation NSW party. She went to prison in 2003 for electoral fraud over the registration of One Nation in Queensland, but this was overturned later that year. Despite vowing not to return to politics, she ran as an independent for the Senate in Queensland in 2004 and 2007, and for Beaudesert at the 2009 Queensland state election. She has since decided to move to the United Kingdom, and is not expected to stand again.
Hanson’s seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he has held the seat ever since.
Candidates
The LNP is running Tanya Smith. Family First are running Tim Stieler.
Political situation
This seat now covers very safe areas for the ALP and they should have no trouble retaining the seat in 2010.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 47,128 | 58.56 | +10.01 |
| Scott White | LIB | 26,297 | 32.68 | -4.05 |
| Austin Lund | GRN | 4,128 | 5.13 | +0.81 |
| Gregory Roy | FF | 1,682 | 2.09 | -1.35 |
| Murray Henman | DEM | 951 | 1.18 | +0.01 |
| Brian Haag | CEC | 289 | 0.36 | -0.60 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 51,607 | 64.13 | +7.01 |
| Scott White | LIB | 28,868 | 35.87 | -7.01 |
Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
Oxley covers parts of the City of Ipswich and the City of Brisbane. Approximate two thirds of the population lives in Brisbane and one third in Ipswich, although the centre of Ipswich is not itself in Oxley.
Booths have been divided into three areas. South-west covers those booths in Ipswich council area, while booths in Brisbane have been divided between North, covering those booths near the river, and South-east.
The ALP won majorities of around 68% in the south of the seat, but in the north the Liberal Party won a small majority, and won all booths in the area close to the river.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 4.57 | 67.70 | 23,994 | 39.04 |
| South-West | 4.38 | 68.63 | 20,610 | 33.54 |
| North | 5.87 | 46.26 | 16,852 | 27.42 |
| Other votes | 6.13 | 61.17 | 12,631 |
I think that Bernie Ripoll (ALP) will get re-elected, but I think he’ll lose quite a few votes to the Greens and LNP. It is a very safe Labor area, but many ALP supporters are unhappy about the railway out to Springfield not having been built, the sale of QR (the railway workshops are at Redbank) and the Rudd government’s backflip on the ETS. I think there will be a huge swing away from the ALP in this area and anticipate the ALP will only get in because of preferences.
Nah, I think there will probably be a small swing to Labor this election, since the booths in the centenary suburbs, formerly in Ryan, will be losing the incumbency advantage to the LNP and will probably swing to Labor.
Also, most of the seat is working-class Labor territory, not the sort of Labor voters likely to be very concerned about climate change.
Nick,it’s not climate change voters in Oxley are worried about, and it’s not the ETS. I agree with you. But they are worried about whether they can trust an ALP government and their principles (or rather perceived lack of them). They voted the State government in on the basis that public assets wouldn’t be sold. 9 days after the election, Bligh announced that QR and other assets would be sold off. Traditional ALP voters are very angry. Again, I think Bernie Ripoll will win the seat but I think that he will only win because of preferences.
Yes we’ve had a membership rise in the seat of oxley.
The big concerns are the rail privatisation and shutdown of the workshops and 457 Visa workers replacing Australians in cheap unskilled workers. Many of the workers have to teach these newcomers their jobs before getting the sack for cheaper labour.
I apologise for the language Ben but I have to call bullshit on this one.
Tony, 457 visas are for skilled overseas workers filling positions where Australia has a skills shortage, not unskilled manufacturing jobs. I repeat, 457 visa workers do not work in unskilled manufacturing positions. And the idea that someone in unskilled manufacturing work – one of the most highly unionsed work sectors – can be replaced on a lower wage when all wages are set by union pay levles is just stupid. There have been very few cases of this happening, none involving 457 visa workers, and if you know of any you should report it to the fair work tribunal instead of spreading gossip online. Your xenophobia is disgraceful.
Tell that to the Welders that are being retrenched.
I’m sure they’d listen.
The Idea that the DLP is xenophopic shows just how little you know about us.
The DLP pushed for and removed the white Australia Policy.
The DLP placed pressure on the then Whitlam government to rescue thousands of Vietnamese after the Vietnam war.
Ukranians in the area and Vietnames are assisting us in the campaign in that are and remember all to well the protests against by the ALP and the Libs.
So keep your foot out of your mouth.
“Tell that to the Welders that are being retrenched.
I’m sure they’d listen.”
I’m sorry Tony but that just doesn’t cut it. Do you have any proof that 457 visa holders are coming to Australia and taking the jobs of unskilled workers? If you don’t you are just fuelling idle speculation with an anti-immigration narrative.
We have Hamish and we know what we are Talking about.
The DLP certainly have never been anti immigration as everyone knows. (or should do) its when temporary foreign workers are brought in for the sole purpose of exploitation and to remove and or diminish workers conditions.
There are examples right around Australia.
From Taxi drivers, to meat workers, from welders to heavy equipment operators.
I suggest you go out and find out instead of throwing rubbish and misinformation up on the Web.
I’d be surprised if many voters have heard of the DLP, Tony.
There’s enough of them around to keep the greens out of the Senate in Queensland.
I’ll make sure of that.
Then put the information on the table. I would be very surprised if you can find a taxi driver on a skilled workers visa. 457 visa workers fill areas of skills shortage in Australia. These are the facts. To say that they fill unskilled positions is to spread misinformation.
Surely you can see how your post would fuel anti-immigration sentiment?
“The big concerns are the rail privatisation and shutdown of the workshops and 457 Visa workers replacing Australians in cheap unskilled workers. Many of the workers have to teach these newcomers their jobs before getting the sack for cheaper labour.”
I stand by everything I wrote.
(And how fitting that this discussion is in the Oxley thread)
@Tony,
The Greens only need 14.3% after preferences to win a Senate seat, and none of the three DLP voters would ever be the sort of person to vote Green anyway.
Tony: in saying “There’s enough of them around to keep the greens out of the Senate in Queensland. I’ll make sure of that.” are you suggesting you will put all other parties ahead of the Greens? That means putting the LNP, who encourage migration and especially skilled migration, ahead of the Greens. While I would expect the DLP to do this on a range of social policy issues I think it disingenuous to try and link workers rights as a good reason to vote against the Greens. Yes, the 457 visa is abused, but often it is the workers who are brought in under it that are the ones being ripped off and abused, so perhaps think of those workers too. I would suggest looking at business migration as a far worse rort – essentially people buying their way in, whether they have anything to offer the country or not. Business migrants, who may then engage in speculative industries as opposed to service or productive ones, are a significant proportion of Australia’a migration. General Skilled Migration is less than 25% of overall migrantion (thats your welders, but not taxi drivers – http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/general-skilled-migration/pdf/new-list-of-occupations.pdf).
Tony is correct. THe Democratic Labor Party was the first party in Australia to nadvocate an end to the White Australia Policy.
But the DLP did not advocate an end to our tradoitional Concilliation and Arbitrationn system based on support for registered trade unions.They did not advocate an end to Right of Entry for Union Officials. THey did not advocate letting Chinese Govt owned Corportaions buying up residential property, mines and meatworks in Austarlia.
Hamish is right that S457 VIsa’s were intended for skilled jobs but they were not intended to cover skilled trade work such as meat working, welding etc. However this government is allowing this too happen. Can tou really call Rudd or Bligh Labor. They would pick the rights of Lesbian Whale’s over the rights of Australian Workers.
Although Theye ALP mouthed off about John Howards Work Choices What changes have they actually made. We still no longer have access to Arbitration Commission. The workers of Oxcley only haev to look to the Railway Workshops and Meatworks to knowe what Rudd has in mind export the jobs to China if he can & if he can not export the industry import the CHinese slave laborers to undercut Australian Wages. Kick him out & elect DLP candidates.
The DLP had agreed to Nationalise without compensation the Railway workshops if Anna Bligh is selling off. So if you are thinking of buying the Workshops beware.
Just FYI for you all. The LNP candidate’s name is James Downing. He is a born and bred local who grew up in Oxley, graduated from local public schools and is currently working with a number of community and charity groups while he is studying.
He has had election signs out for the past couple of weeks, talking to people about their concerns and issues.
I stand by my original comment. Voters in Oxley are extremely angry with the ALP and I’m very confident that if Bernie Ripoll wins (which I think he will), it will only be because of preferences. This being said I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an enormous swing away from the ALP and he loses his seat. The railway workers and meat workers are furious with the ALP.
What Tony has said in relation to 457 Visas is true. Although 457 Visas are supposed to be for skilled workers to come into Australia, the ones that have been brought over from China and elsewhere to work at the local meatworks are unskilled. Australian workers have had to train them to do their jobs. Given some foreign workers are on $45,500 per year and Australian workers on around $25,000 for the same number of hours, same work, the Australian workers are upset with the government. Then there are the foreign workers who shouldn’t be working at the meatworks because they aren’t on 457 Visas, who are employed as cheap labour (often they are the partners of the 457 Visa holders). This is a big issue for Oxley and also Blair.
“Given some foreign workers are on $45,500 per year and Australian workers on around $25,000 for the same number of hours, same work”
How does that make sense? Why would anyone hire a ‘foreign worker’ if they cost nearly twice as much? I concede, as Stewart noted, that there are abuses of 457, but I think that certain ends of society exaggerate it greatly to stir up prejudice for political gain.
And if Bernie Ripoll polls below 50%, let alone loses his seat, the Government will have much bigger worries on election night. It won’t happen.
I’d also like to think that the general public is intelligent enough to differentiate State and Federal Governments.
No offence Hamish Coffee, but the public are intelligent to know that the ALP have started to sell off public assets in QLD, will sell QR and this same party have wasted millions on pink bats, the education “revolution”, ditched the ETS, have given workers workchoice lite and now have introduced a huge mining tax which will affect many of the workers in this electorate. You have to understand that this area is full of swinging voters. If they don’t like what the government is doing they will waste no time in kicking it out. Think about Pauline Hanson. She didn’t even need preferences to get in. And the only reason she was booted out was because the major parties did a deal to get rid of her. I think that you are seriously underestimating how angry voters are in this electorate and the political gravity of the situation.
ps I don’t think Bernie Ripoll will lose his seat,but I think he’s going to take a hammering in the polls
Hanson was a political tsunami. I can’t think of any other event like it. You are right that Oxley is a seat that could swing a lot, indeed, has swung a lot, but ultimately people who are angry about the failed ETS or state Government privatisations aren’t going to vote Liberal, and in Oxley probably aren’t going to vote Green. I’d be extremely surprised if Ripoll polled below 50%, but we shall see.
Hanson did require preferences in 1996:
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/1996/hor/divisions/gdvs_qld.htm
As to privatisation – this started with Labor under Hawke & Keating and continued under Howard & Costello, so I don’t think it’s a Liberal/Labor dividing issue. Yes people will be unhappy with the privatisation but they are also capable of recognising the differences between state and federal politics. Have a look at the Last Newspoll for NSW (state polling) and the federal (broken down by state) – the ALP is on 31 in the state poll, and 40 in the federal poll. This would tend to indicate people are making a distinction between the two. I realise that the polling difference may now have dried up with the latest drops in federal polls for the ALP, but that doesn’t mean that electors are going to punish so severely federal Labor for the sins of their state cousins.
@Stewart J
1996 was a very different year.
Had the liberals not publically de-endorsed Pauline she probably would have faded into history. The two party preferred swing was in the vicinity of 19% and a great deal came from the disenchanted ALP voters as well as disenchantment from the coalition. This was also fuelled by rail shutdowns at the time.
The Queensland Times certainly jumped on the bandwagon with Pauline and she became the daily headline. With the timing right and a hostile electorate Les Scott wore the brunt that ended his chance of a long career in politics.
While it is possible that the unions could promote an alternative candidate (as they should) I don’t think they have the will to do so. Lets face it the greens are hardly an attractive alternative in this working mans seat. If we can come up with an ex meat worker or a rail worker facing retrenchment…….who knows.
I think the state privitisations would be a state issue. And besides the federal liberals love privitisation more than anyone.
Case and point
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJTNW0xeL5w
State privitisations are primarily the result of vertical fiscal imbalance. Ie they run out of their own money very easily because the constitution gives all good taxing powers to the commonwealth(since they high court decisions anyway). The Rudd government has been doing alot to address that especially with Health reform. I don’t see why punishing Labor would prove anything?
No there isn’t.
Any effect that the DLP has on The Greens result is coincidental.
2007 – Federal Election – Senate QLD
D.L.P. – Democratic Labor Party 7,265 0.30% 0.0210
2007 may has well be 100 years ago.
Lets hope all the greens are as silly and so ill informed as imagineitive nickname.
Tony,
Since when is publishing data from the previous election make someone silly or uniformed? Attacking people for providing facts is not a good look. I would suggest you are a bit worked up and need to calm down.
History tells us how difficult for a party it is to increase their vote from such a low level, especially with little name recognition and large competition from other micro parties. At the eletion in question, the DLP were the 9th biggest micro party after Pauline, FF, Dems, Fishing, Fishing and Lifestyle, Shooters then Climate Change Coalition.
Imagininative says:
History tells us how difficult for a party it is to increase their vote from such a low level, especially with little name recognition and large competition from other micro parties. At the eletion in question, the DLP were the 9th biggest micro party after Pauline, FF, Dems, Fishing, Fishing and Lifestyle, Shooters then Climate Change Coalition.
The DLP in the 2007 was last to nominate and had no run up to the election. It had been 30 years since in stood in Queensland and even many of the minor parties we would normally work with were unaware.
2010 is totally different and so any trend will be measured from 2007 – 2010.
My prediction for this seat? Libs 39% Greens 9% ALP% 48% Oth 4%
2PP? Libs 46% ALP 54% I think that Bernie Ripoll will only get back in with preferences from the Greens.
Tony,
Out of interest, what % of the vote are you looking for in the QLD senate in 2010? I would think 1% would be a good result and 2% would considered very good.
In Brisbane we are polling about 2.76%,
In some areas we are down around .8 or under 1%.
I’d like to get to 4% which would put us close to winning a seat with our preference block. (Gold coast is around 2.8%)
A lot of hard work to go though. We have attended every protest and the Labor day march and in some areas we are growing at a good rate. A lot of work is still to be done in NQ.
The CDP is wondering whether they should stand or come in with us.
I think we need something to happen to bring us into the limelight and I am working on a few ideas.
The media and the public though are increasingly becoming aware of our lead stands on many issues and the media is talking to us on a regular basis. (not necessarily on what we wish to discuss)
Each lower house seat we start with about 10 workers and Moreton has risen to about 45. In Petrie we stared with about 4 and is up to 25 (after one week).
I’d like to see 10 seats with 100 workers In each seat.
We currently are running candidate training courses and two high schools are interested in the classes. We have speakers from all parties and old retired union members. NCC members and what we call “concerned citizen groups”.
The ground work we have started and the failing state of the LNP and the uneasy life in the state ALP should see us continue our steady growth.
Unions have even re-entered discussions with us.
It’s a great party with a great history. So it’s certainly not out of the run for Senate seat this time around.
Tony,
Your positive attitude is an asset, however, I have seen DLP members on this site spruiking the credentials for elections in the recent past only to see poor resuts, so you can excuse me if I am a bit sceptical.
As a non queenslander, I would suggest your focus should be on beating CDP, FFP in primary vote in 2010 and then winning a senate seat in 2013 or 2016. As mentioned, I believe your base is too low.
Everywhere I drive I have seen James Downing out. I saw him yesterday at the Mt Ommaney shops there.
Can we know a bit more about James Downing the LNP candidate?
How old is he? What is his work/life experience? Is he married, got kids? What is he studying at Uni? Is this a serious candidate with quality credentials or just some joker who is a name on paper?
I just stumbled onto this site looking for info about my local candidates. Bernie ripoll is known but the liberals need to get there candidate out there more. We were discussing politics at out local mothers breakfast and nobody could say who was running for the liberals. Do the liberals even care out oxley or it is a name on a paper cause they dont ware.
Hi Melissa – It’s easy to say that Bernie Ripoll is known as he has been the member for Oxley for the past several years and has the funding and resources to ensure his name is known, however when it comes to other parties (whether it is the Greens, Independants or the Liberals) trying to campaign in the electorate they do not have the same resources.
When I wanted info on the candidates I checked out the relevant Party web sites and these gave me info on the candidates.
When it comes to the Liberal candidate I have seen him and his signs in Centenary, Springfield, and Darra while driving my truck around. I have also seen him at a couple of community events.
Hi Robert, i checked the lnp website and it confirms what ive been saying. http://lnp.org.au/the-lnp-team/federal.
there is no mention of oxley or their candidate. Shows the LNP dont care about us as residents in oxley. I welcome the LNP to show me how to find info on their candidate james downing.
Hmm, that’s interesting because he was listed there previously. Has there been another resignation or disendorsement?
Melissa and Nick,
my understanding is that James downing has resigned as the candidate due to genuine health reasons and that there is a long time female resident being endorsed that runs a small business in the area. Apparently she is very keen to get more involved in the electorate.
James Downing has had to stand down because of Health Issues. Melissa you can say that the LNP doesn’t care about the residents of Oxley all you want but playing such political games at the expense of someones health is very poor form indeed. It was a pity as I had seen James around more than I have ever seen the sitting Labor member.
http://www.qt.com.au/story/2010/07/03/lnp-candidate-pulls-out-election-James-Downing/
I now read that the LNP has a new candidate for Oxley: Tarnya Smith
http://lnp.org.au/the-lnp-team/federal/member/tarnya-smith—lnp-candidate-for-oxley
Go the women!
Hannah,
I heard her speak tonight at a community function. It is refreshing to hear a woman that has worked her way from check out chick to business owner speak about basic simple day to day things that affect everyone.. I agree. Go the women. Go Tarnya
Is this woman from the LNP going to get out and be seen?? I like to see people actually trying to show their presence instead of just expecting my vote.
Hmm, are we getting multiple posts here from the same IP addresses?
Ben, might be time for a comments policy.
They aren’t the same.
That’s funny, because there’s a few cases here where it’s displaying the same icon next to different people’s names.
Family First candidate for Oxley is 27yo Tim Stieler, married with 2 daughters. Qualifications in IT; currently East Coast Regional Estimator for Komatsu.
LNP still seems to be out an awful lot. Got a nice glossy Tony Abbott flyer in the mail the other day. I’m surprised that they LNP is spending money on this seat with all the other marginal ones out there. Is there something the LNP knows that we don’t?