Oxley – Election 2010

ALP 11.3%

Incumbent MP
Bernie Ripoll, since 1998.

Geography
Oxley covers the southwestern suburbs of the City of Brisbane and eastern parts of the City of Ipswich. Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee.

Redistribution
Oxley lost territory in the City of Ipswich to the seat of Blair, although this did not include any polling booths. It also lost territory on its eastern boundary to the seats of Moreton and Rankin. It gained those parts of Ryan lying on the southern shore of the Brisbane River, including Riverhills, Westlake, Jamboree Heights, Sumner and Jindalee.

History
The seat of Oxley was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. After first being held by the Liberal Party for a decade, it has almost always been won by the ALP, except for the 1996 election, when it was won by disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, who later formed the One Nation party.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron.  Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden.

Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. He joined Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlam’s resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980.

Hayden faced a leadership threat from former ACTU president Bob Hawke, who had entered Parliament in 1980. Hawke failed to win a ballot in 1982. In early 1983 Hayden resigned as leader and was replaced by Hawke, only hours before Malcolm Fraser called an early election. After Bob Hawke’s win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament.

The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Les Scott. Scott held the seat for the remainder of the Hawke/Keating government, up to the 1996 election. The Liberal Party preselected former Ipswich councillor Pauline Hanson as their candidate in 1996. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Party’s name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing.

Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. The party had a strong result at the Queensland state election in early 1998 and she was predicted to perform strongly at the next federal election. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Despite coming first on primary votes, Hanson lost due to the ALP and Liberal Party swapping preferences.

Hanson continued to lead One Nation until 2003, running for the Senate in 2001 in Queensland and as an independent for the NSW Legislative Council in 2003 with the support of the original One Nation party, against the breakaway One Nation NSW party. She went to prison in 2003 for electoral fraud over the registration of One Nation in Queensland, but this was overturned later that year. Despite vowing not to return to politics, she ran as an independent for the Senate in Queensland in 2004 and 2007, and for Beaudesert at the 2009 Queensland state election. She has since decided to move to the United Kingdom, and is not expected to stand again.

Hanson’s seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he has held the seat ever since.

Candidates
The LNP is running Tanya Smith. Family First are running Tim Stieler.

Political situation
This seat now covers very safe areas for the ALP and they should have no trouble retaining the seat in 2010.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bernie Ripoll ALP 47,128 58.56 +10.01
Scott White LIB 26,297 32.68 -4.05
Austin Lund GRN 4,128 5.13 +0.81
Gregory Roy FF 1,682 2.09 -1.35
Murray Henman DEM 951 1.18 +0.01
Brian Haag CEC 289 0.36 -0.60

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

 

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bernie Ripoll ALP 51,607 64.13 +7.01
Scott White LIB 28,868 35.87 -7.01

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Oxley covers parts of the City of Ipswich and the City of Brisbane. Approximate two thirds of the population lives in Brisbane and one third in Ipswich, although the centre of Ipswich is not itself in Oxley.

Booths have been divided into three areas. South-west covers those booths in Ipswich council area, while booths in Brisbane have been divided between North, covering those booths near the river, and South-east.

The ALP won majorities of around 68% in the south of the seat, but in the north the Liberal Party won a small majority, and won all booths in the area close to the river.

 

Polling booths in Oxley. North in green, South-east in blue, South-west in yellow.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 4.57 67.70 23,994 39.04
South-West 4.38 68.63 20,610 33.54
North 5.87 46.26 16,852 27.42
Other votes 6.13 61.17 12,631
Results of the 2007 federal election in Oxley.

67 COMMENTS

  2. I saw Tarnya Smith at the Community Festival at Springfield Lakes the other day. She put in a strong showing and actually contributed to our community by raising funds for next year’s festival rather than just being there to promote herself.

    I was very impressed.

  3. I’ve had the opportunity to work with Bernie Ripoll before. He was genuine and engaged, and had very much done his homework on the issues we were working on. He’s been in the house since 1998, I would be suprised if he didn’t at least get a parsec spot, and perhaps a junior ministerial position, in the next parliament. Rudd punished him in the last parliament after he backed Beazley despite being Brisbane, QLD Right mates that both came into the House in ’98.
    (http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/factions-left-behind-in-leadership-vote/2006/12/04/1165080880899.html?page=2)
    He’s one of the more talented senior backbenchers, a factional leader, and very close to Swan. The only obstacle to his rise that I’m aware of would be an ALP loss.

  4. why is it that bernie ripoll syas that he funded the ipswich motorway up grade when the first two section were funded by Howard????????????

  5. I have heard off some friends in the ALP that this will be Bernie RIpoll’s last run at the seat before he has to make way for the more talented Milton Dick, so I don’t know where all that gloss and shine for Ripoll comes from when he is going to be a final termer and seat warmer for a higher profile candidate next time round.

  7. I have decided that I will as well. I have got 6 LNP flyers in my letterbox and seen them out on a number of occasions. I have seen Labor once and got 3 flyers in my letterbox. The LNP clearly wants my vote more.

  8. Hannah
    Posted August 17, 2010 at 11:03 PM

    “I have decided that I will as well. I have got 6 LNP flyers in my letterbox and seen them out on a number of occasions. I have seen Labor once and got 3 flyers in my letterbox. The LNP clearly wants my vote more.”

    – Because that’s a reasonable way to decide how to vote??!!
    The ignorance in this country astounds me. And I’m not being partisan, it goes both ways. But when given the choice, you are making your decision based on who spent the most money on flyers?? No wonder Oxley gave rise to Pauline, and QLD accepted Joh for so long.

  10. To the two gentlemen who seem to like to attack me. I have looked at the flyers and the content. Ripoll’s flyers are all simply Generic and I am horrified they were all printed at the expense of the Australian Government. The LNP at least put out some flyers that were clearly not big spend items- no glossy paper at all which showed them involved in many community events as a team heavily involved in the community. As a result of their flyers and huge community involvement my vote goes to the LNP. 6 quality flyers with clear direction versus 3 rubbish ones that have ‘action shots’ of Labor members pretending to do surgery on someone the 6 vs 3 wins. I am also impressed with the fact the LNP is really putting an effort into the area unlike Labor.

    Aside from which if I wish to vote for someone because they have a funny name, or have crazy hair or whatever then I should be able to choose how to exercise my vote without idiots like you criticising me. Use your vote how you want and I will use mine how I want 🙂 I pay my taxes so I exercise my right to vote however I wish.

  11. Hannah,

    You are entitled to that view. However, I would argue that voting is not just a right, but a responsibility, and one not granted by virtue of the fact that you pay taxes. Rather, you have that right and responsibility because you are a citizen, and the right and responsibility of a citizen to vote is not, in any way, diminished or enhanced by the amount of tax they pay. Contributions to society are measured by more than financial input.

    You are correct in saying that you, as well as all citizens of age, have the right to vote for your representative in parliament (as was upheld by the High Court as recently as last week). However, wouldn’t you agree that there is more to voting than simply having the right to choose? A responsible citizen should cast their vote in a responsible manner. And, as Hamish and I were arguing above, to cast a vote based on the marketing prowess of a particular party as compared to the others is irresponsible. I understand that not many people wish to invest a lot of time in figuring which way to best cast their vote, but I contend that the responsible citizen goes beyond the advertising material presented by parties in order to make this decision.

    You say that if “I wish to vote for someone because they have a funny name, or have crazy hair or whatever then I should be able to choose how to exercise my vote without idiots like you criticising me.” Well, I disagree. Just as it is your right to vote how you see fit, it is my right to criticise you for doing so in an irresponsible manner.

  12. Craig, I don’t think there is a need to be recalcitrant towards Hannah. Obviously a vote for the Liberals is a responsible vote regardless of her reasons given. Obviously everyone has the right to vote who is a citizen and I am sure that Hannah was not being literal about being entitled to vote because she pays taxes. I’d like to congratulate to hard Liberal workers in Oxley and good luck. I do expect a substantial swing against Labor.

    Hamish, I had a read of the article that probably 1000 people have read. This was the most correct part:
    “Inevitably, there will be some voters who won’t care that the Coalition’s economic plan for the future just doesn’t stack up. It has a good track record from the last time it was in government, and the Labor Party has presided over increased debt and waste and mismanagement attached to many of its spending programs.”

    I’d suggest Hamish that this is the underlying reason for the swing to the Liberal Party on this coming Saturday. The rest of the article matters little.

    One could just as easily target Gillard and Swan for saying that ‘Australia’s debt is like someone earning $100k and having $6k in debt’. To even say that shows utter economic incompletence. Comparing GDP to a salaried income is like comparing a sardine to a great white shark. GDP is gross production before business expenses. With salaried income there are no expenses. PS: You are probably better off keeping the partisan crap away from this site.

  13. DB,

    I’m certainly not being recalcitrant. I would have accepted condescending, but not recalcitrant. Also, I’m clearly not saying that a considered vote for the LNP is irresponsible.
    Rather, I’m saying that a decision, for either party, based solely on the marketing material supplied by each, is hardly a well informed decision. And I’m arguing that we have a responsibility to inform ourselves before excersizing our right to vote.

    Also, I hardly think Hamish was being partisan by saying that the Libs have lost some support in The Oz, just as you’re not when you predict a swing their way. In fact, your comments come across far more partisan than those from Hamish. The paragraph that you refer to as “most correct” ignores the fact that the two main architects of the Coalition’s economic policies over their 12 years of government are no longer members of the parliamentary party.

  14. So you are saying that voting for a party that has shown through their materials that they are very much part of the local community in 6 well produced brochures compared with 3 which I consider to be condescending to voters here is misguided. And btw, it is now 8 with personal letters from Tarnya Smith (in successive days) which once again is local issues based and focuses on what she will do for the local community specifically.

    I was obviously under the false belief that when this country was formed people were meant to vote for the individual in the community who would best represent their interests. The LNP in their 6 (now 7) brochures have well and truly convinced me that they are the best to represent me at a local community level. I am not voting for Abbott or Gillard and beyond the local policies I don’t really care; both seem to be really the same when it comes down to it. I am voting for Tarnya Smith to be my peer I wish to send down to Canberra to represent me. It is my responsibility to vote for who I deem to be my best choice to be my peer to go and represent my views in Canberra.

    And so I have looked very carefully at what each party has placed in my letterbox. The LNP with their brochures seems to want it more as their brochures are focused on the local community. I am also swayed by the fact that a number of my friends have met Tarnya and say what a lovely and down to earth person she is. I have one friend who has met Bernie Ripoll and while they say he was nice he has been a MP for 12 years or so and only one of my friends has ever met him. Beyond reading the flyers in letterboxes there is little that the ordinary person can really do to justify voting for a local candidate. (And to those who come out and say; “Well you should have gone and seen them” I have children to take around and shopping, nappies and raising a family comes before being proactive.)

    As I previously said- I am voting LNP and Tarnya Smith because they have shown they want it more and I want someone representing me in Canberra who really wants to be there.

  15. Hannah
    I also live in Oxley and alternatively to you I have had hardly any info from Tarnya Smith and a few from Ripoll. I’ve also seen heaps more Ripoll signs and guys standing on street corners than Smith. Maybe both sides have areas of Oxley they target/are strong in. I have also met Bernie Ripoll once and was impressed. So each to their own. We’ll see how it pans out Saturday night.

  16. Can I point out that I am not the same Craig as has posted earlier. An innocent mistake, I should have checked more thoroughly and I apologise to anyone and particularly the other Craig for any confusion.

  17. Bit late now, but Ben, you forgot to add the candidates list on this one.

    My prediction: 2-3% swing to LNP.

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