North Sydney – Election 2010

LIB 5.5%

Incumbent MP
Joe Hockey, since 1996

Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat covers the north shore of Sydney Harbour from Hunters Hill to Kirribilli and extends as far north as Chatswood. Main suburbs are North Sydney, Willoughby, Lane Cove, Chatswood and Hunters Hill. The seat covers the entirety of Hunters Hill and Lane Cove local government areas, almost all of Willoughby (except for a part of northern Chatswood) and a majority of the City of North Sydney (except for Neutral Bay and Cremorne).

Redistribution
Prior to the redistribution, North Sydney covered the entirety of North Sydney LGA, and a smaller part of Willoughby LGA. Neutral Bay and Cremorne were transferred from North Sydney to Warringah, and in exchange North Sydney gained Middle Cove and Castle Cove from Warringah. Northern parts of Willoughby LGA, centred around Chatswood and Willoughby North, were transferred from Bradfield to North Sydney.

History
North Sydney is an original federation electorate, and has never been held by the ALP, being held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors with the exception of two terms when it was held by an independent.

The seat originally extended much further than the immediate lower north shore of Sydney. The original seat covered all of the north shore and extended further north to cover the Central Coast and reached Morisset on Lake Macquarie. The seat rapidly retreated back to Pittwater by the 1906 redistribution. The 1922 redistribution saw the creation of Mackellar covering Manly and the Northern Beaches, and North Sydney retreated to most of the area it covers today around North Sydney, Chatswood and Lane Cove.

The seat was first won by Dugald Thompson, originally of the Free Trade Party and then the Commonwealth Liberal Party. Thompson served as a minister in George Reid’s government from 1904 to 1905, and retired in 1910. The seat was won in 1910 by George Edwards, who, like Thompson, had moved from the Free Trade party to the Liberal party. Edwards had previously held the seat of South Sydney from 1901 to 1906.

Edwards died in 1911, and the seat was won by Granville Ryrie (LIB). Ryrie was a Boer War veteran, and was promoted to Brigadier-General at the beginning of the First World War and served in battle at Gallipoli and in Sinai and Palestine. Ryrie continued to serve as Member for North Sydney and became a minister under Billy Hughes in 1920. Ryrie moved to the new seat of Warringah in 1922 and remained in Parliament until 1927.

North Sydney was won in 1922 by then-Prime Minister Billy Hughes. Hughes had previously served as Labor member for West Sydney from 1901 to 1917, when he became the Nationalist member for Bendigo. Hughes had become Prime Minister in 1915 and had left the ALP in 1916 over the issue of conscription, and created the new Nationalist party with the support of fellow ALP defectors and his former conservative opponents.

At the same election when Hughes moved to North Sydney, his party lost its overall majority in the House of Representatives. The Country Party decided to support the Nationalists, but animosity between Hughes and Country Party leader Earle Page saw Hughes resign as Prime Minister and Stanley Bruce take over.

Hughes went to the backbenches and remained there until 1929, when he crossed the floor and brought down the Bruce government. He served as an independent for two years before joining with his former party and another group of Labor rebels, led by Joseph Lyons, to form the United Australia Party.

Hughes served as a minister once more from 1934 to 1937, after first becoming a minister in 1904. He became leader of the United Australia Party in 1941 and led the party, barely, into the 1943 election. Hughes held the seat of North Sydney until the 1949 election, when he moved to the new seat of Bradfield, and stayed in Parliament until his death in 1952.

The ensuing by-election was won by William Jack, who remained a low-profile, yet locally popular, backbencher until his retirement in 1966.

The seat was won in 1966 by Bill Graham, another Liberal who had previously held the marginal seat of St George from 1949 to 1954 and from 1955 to 1958. Graham remained in North Sydney until 1980.

Graham was succeeded by John Spender, who was defeated at the 1990 election by Ted Mack, an independent who had previously been Mayor of North Sydney and member for the state seat of North Shore. Mack had previously been a member of state Parliament from 1981 until 1988, when he resigned just before he qualified for a parliamentary pension in protest against excesses of public office. He retired at the 1996 election for similar reasons.

The seat was won in 1996 by Joe Hockey, and he has held it ever since. Hockey was a junior minister in the Howard government from 1998 to January 2007, when he was elevated to Cabinet as Minister for Workplace Relations.

At the 2007 election the ALP targetted the seat and ran former ABC weatherman Mike Bailey. He gained a 4.7% swing and achieved the highest two-party preferred result for the ALP since 1961, reducing the margin to 5.4%.

Hockey became a senior member of the Opposition frontbench following the 2007 election and became Shadow Treasurer in February 2009. He was considered a possible leadership contender in December 2009, but came third in the leadership ballot behind Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, and has continued as Shadow Treasurer under Abbott.

Candidates

  • Joe Hockey (Liberal) – Member for North Sydney since 1996, Shadow Treasurer since 2009.
  • Leta Webb (Labor)
  • Daniel Pearce (Democrats)
  • Andrew Robjohns (Greens) – North Sydney councillor
  • Daniel Le (Family First)

Political situation
While this margin suggests this seat could be vulnerable to the ALP, Hockey’s increased presence within his party and the fact that the ALP already put in a major effort in 2007, suggests this would be extremely difficult for the ALP to gain the extra 5.1% swing needed to win.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Joe Hockey LIB 44,177 51.81 -4.42
Mike Bailey ALP 30,372 35.62 +8.35
Ted Nixon GRN 7,851 9.21 -3.12
Barry Thompson CCC 1,119 1.31 +1.31
Arie Baalbergen CDP 621 0.73 +0.73
Marcus Aussie-Stone IND 526 0.62 +0.62
John Cafferatta FF 352 0.41 +0.39
Kundan Misra CEC 245 0.29 +0.29

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Joe Hockey LIB 47,222 55.38 -4.66
Mike Bailey ALP 38,041 44.62 +4.66

Booth breakdown
I have divided the booths between the four local government areas which are covered by North Sydney. There is no great variation between different parts of the seat. Hunters Hill, which makes up a smaller part of the seat than the other council areas, is more strongly conservative and has a lower Greens vote. The three other council areas all saw Liberal majorities of 53-55%, with the Greens polling between 9.5% and 10%. Looking at individual booths, the ALP only won in five booths, which follow a line from Greenwich, through Artarmon into Chatswood.

Polling booths in North Sydney. North Sydney council area in blue, Willoughby in green, Lane Cove in red, Hunters Hill in yellow.
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Willoughby 9.70 54.43 29,367 43.15
North Sydney 9.99 53.33 18,600 27.33
Lane Cove 9.56 55.41 13,642 20.05
Hunters Hill 7.12 60.55 6,446 9.47
Other votes 9.50 56.10 18,967
Polling booths in North Sydney, showing results of the 2007 election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. After the 1949 redistribution North Sydney was Labor on the 1946 figures thus Billy’s departure. The state electorate of North Sydney used to be fairly safe Labor but the North Sydney working class was largely evicted in the late 1950s to make way for the expansion of the roads to the bridge.

  3. G’day I’m Daniel Pearce, and I’m the Australian Democrats candidate for the electorate of North Sydney. I chose to run as a candidate in North Sydney because I believe that the people of North Sydney do not have the choice or representation that they deserve. I am also running because I believe that Australia needs the Australian Democrats to come back and be that third force, a voice of honesty and integrity. Australia more than ever needs the Australian Democrats to represent the moderate progressives that are being sorely left out by the other major parties. The Democrats have a proud history of representing the middle ground and if elected I intend to continue this.

    http://www.facebook.com/DanielPearceNorthSydney

  4. Ted Mack was an outstanding MP and is a hard act to follow.

    Joe Hockey has tried – he’s acted on principle and has taken unpopular liberal positions on issues like censorship and the rights of Muslims (admirable, particularly in the light of his Armenian background). Joe certainly seems likeable, but under questioning he bluffs his way through interviews, relying on his jocularity. He has a habit of endlessly repeating one peripheral and unarguable element of a debate – thereby ignoring the main issue.

    While Joe is the sort of progressive Liberal who gives liberals hope, it’s great to see an impressive Democrats candidate – a chance for North Sydney to return an MP with the progressive values, independance, sincerity and competence of Ted Mack.

    Can anyone explain why, when 163,000 Australians voted Democrats in 2007, there has been no media coverage of the Democrats, even by the public broadcaster … so much for ‘İt’s your ABC !’.

  6. Daniel, you should be looking for the inner city seats to push your cause. With the greatest of respect to you, and I do appreciate your cause, you are no hope in North Sydney while Hockey is there.

  7. DB, I will run in the electorate that I live. I feel that I should give the people of North Sydney a moderate alternative. If in the future I run on the upper house ticket I will campaign strongly in the inner city. For the this election however, I will be running to represent Democrat policies and positions in North Sydney.

  8. That does not explain why the Democrats were ignored by the ABC when the party had four Senators. Compare that to the endless ABC coverage of the Greens with their five Senators !

  9. Do not agree with your definition of ‘micro party’ and the right to be covered by the public broadcaster – teh Democrats have more supporters than members of AFL Collingwood, Carlton, St.Kilda and Esendon combined !

  10. Paul, I don’t know for sure but I think I can offer an explanation (re: airtime)

    ABC24 is one of the main reason the Greens get so much time on TV compared to what the Democrats got. Back when the Democrats had Senators regular old ABC news didn’t have 24 hours to broadcast, they didn’t have to fill in the gaps with the Democrats like they do today with the Greens. Another reason might be that the Greens are expected to have 7-9 people in the Senate as well as a Lower House Seat and got 1.1 million votes in the last election.

    Also on Micro-Parties, I think that would just be a party that lacks any or significant representation.

  11. Thank you Ben H for a credible reply to my genuine question. İn Europe elections are far more interesting and democratic as all participant parties are given media attention.

  12. Paul,

    More attention is certainly garnered by the minor and micro parties when they hold the b.o.p. In the past that has seen the Democrats and Brian Harridine with a lot of coverage. During this term, two parties (Greens and Family First) and one independent (Nick X) held the b.o.p., so naturally they received more media coverage.

    However, at this election, the polls are consistently pessimistic of Family First winning a seat and Nick X is not up for re-election. Thus, the campaign is focusing far more on the Greens, who keep improving their vote and are expected to hold the b.o.p. whatever the result.

    The other variable of course is their media savvy. On one hand, Nick X is a master and the other, Steve Fielding seems to get into the media for all the wrong reasons. On a side not, I believe this is one of the reasons his party is struggling.

  13. Also, I understand the ABC are required to allocate airtime according to the party’s performance at the previous election.

Comments are closed.