LIB 18.3%
Incumbent MP
Sharman Stone, since 1996.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Murray covers all of Greater Shepparton and Campaspe council areas and most of Moira and Loddon council areas. The largest towns in Murray are Shepparton and Echuca.
History
Murray was created at the 1949 election. It has always been held by Coalition parties. It was held by the Country Party and National Party until 1996, when it was won by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1949 by the Country Party’s John McEwen. McEwen had previously held Echuca from 1934 until it was abolished in 1937, and then held Indi from 1937 until 1949.
He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1937 to 1941. He then became a minister in the Menzies government in 1949. McEwen became Country Party leader in 1958.
When Robert Menzies retired in 1966 McEwen became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party.
When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired from Murray in 1971.
The 1971 by-election was won by Bruce Lloyd, also of the Country Party. Lloyd served as deputy leader of the National Party from 1987 to 1993, and retired in 1996.
At the 1996 election, the Liberal Party stood Sharman Stone, and the Nationals stood John Walker. The ALP candidate was pushed into third place, with Stone polling 43% of the primary vote, and winning on preferences.
Stone served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government from after the 1998 election until their defeat at the 2007 election. She has since served as a shadow minister.
Candidates
- Sharman Stone (Liberal) – Member for Murray since 1996.
- William Clarke-Hannaford (Secular Party)
- Jeff Davy (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Hugh Mortensen (Labor)
- Serena Moore (Family First)
- Ewan McDonald (Christian Democratic Party)
- Ian Christoe (Greens)
Political situation
Murray is incredibly safe for the Liberal Party.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sharman Stone | LIB | 50,021 | 62.07 | -3.46 |
Bob Scates | ALP | 19,429 | 24.11 | +4.34 |
Rob Bryant | IND | 4,373 | 5.43 | -2.32 |
Serena Moore | FF | 2,674 | 3.32 | +0.94 |
Ian Christoe | GRN | 2,377 | 2.95 | -0.10 |
Diane Teasdale | IND | 615 | 0.76 | -0.59 |
Paul Merrigan | IND | 484 | 0.60 | +0.60 |
Sarina Isgro | DEM | 416 | 0.52 | -0.52 |
Jeff Davy | CEC | 203 | 0.25 | +0.08 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sharman Stone | LIB | 55,015 | 68.26 | -5.82 |
Bob Scates | ALP | 25,577 | 31.74 | +5.82 |
Booth breakdown
Murray covers parts of four local government areas, and booths have been divided according to these boundaries. Almost 45% of the population lives in Greater Shepparton. The Liberal Party won a 72% majority in Campaspe, 70% in Loddon and 68% in Moira. They won their smallest majority, with 65%, in the Shepparton region.
Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Greater Shepparton | 3.62 | 65.36 | 28,035 | 34.79 |
Campaspe | 2.58 | 72.05 | 18,367 | 22.79 |
Moira | 1.83 | 68.19 | 12,485 | 15.49 |
Loddon | 2.07 | 70.56 | 3,672 | 4.56 |
Other votes | 3.24 | 68.49 | 18,033 | 22.38 |
Labor’s candidate is Hugh Mortensen, a 22-year old student from outside the electorate.
My prediction: Negligible swing.