LIB 13.8%
Incumbent MP
Steven Ciobo, since 2001.
Geography
Moncrieff covers the central part of the Gold Coast, covering the coast from Miami to Paradise Waters and Southport, and as far inland as Nerang.
Redistribution
Inland parts of Moncrieff, including Worongary, Tallai, Gilston and Latimer, were transferred to the new seat of Wright.
History
Moncrieff was first created at the 1984 election, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Kathy Sullivan, who had been a Queensland senator since 1974. Sullivan held the seat until 2001, serving continuously in Parliament for 27 years, a record for any female parliamentarian. She served two brief terms in the Opposition shadow ministry in the 1980s and 1990s, and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government from 1997 to 2000.
Sullivan was succeeded in 2001 by Steven Ciobo. Ciobo served on the backbenches for the remainder of the Howard government and the first two years of the Rudd government, joining Tony Abbott’s shadow ministry in December 2009.
Candidates
- Robert Hough (Labor)
- Sally Spain (Greens)
- Steven Ciobo (Liberal National) – Member for Moncrieff since 2001.
- James Tayler (Family First)
Political situation
Moncrieff is a very safe Liberal seat and should be easily retained in 2010.
2007 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Steven Ciobo | LIB | 48,594 | 59.77 | -4.03 |
Sam Miszkowski | ALP | 24,397 | 30.01 | +5.66 |
Carla Brandon | GRN | 5,048 | 6.21 | +1.17 |
James Tayler | FF | 1,440 | 1.77 | -1.26 |
Paul Stevenson | DEM | 731 | 0.90 | -0.29 |
Paul Shears | IND | 562 | 0.69 | +0.69 |
Tim Kirchler | SA | 315 | 0.39 | +0.39 |
Elisabeth Thomson | CEC | 214 | 0.26 | -0.62 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Steven Ciobo | LIB | 52,042 | 64.01 | -5.52 |
Sam Miszkowski | ALP | 29,259 | 35.99 | +5.52 |
These results do not take into consideration the effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
Booths in Moncrieff have been divided into three areas. Those along the coast as “East”, and those inland divided into “West” and “Central”.
The Liberal Party wins majorities of over 60% in all parts of the seat, but wins the largest majorities along the coast and the smallest in the western part of the seat.
Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
East | 6.55 | 67.10 | 22,991 | 36.78 |
Central | 6.20 | 62.63 | 20,777 | 33.24 |
West | 5.30 | 60.12 | 18,735 | 29.97 |
Other votes | 6.75 | 64.33 | 18,338 |
Ben, what did you do with the three Moncrieff booths around Mudgereeba and Robina?
I moved them into Wright. I realised that anyone voting at that booths would have been in Wright.
Wright might even be a little stronger for the LNP than the estimates show depending on how they are apportioning votes from these booths along the border.
Those who fondly remember Sam’s innovative and catchy ALP radio adverts from the 2007 campaign will be disappointed in hearing of the the ALP’s 2010 Moncrieff candidate Robert Hough, who has just copped a pasting in the local press:
http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2010/07/06/235531_gold-coast-news.html
http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2010/07/06/235481_editorial-news.html
My prediction: 2-3% swing to LNP.