Makin – Election 2010

ALP 7.7%

Incumbent MP
Tony Zappia, since 2007.

Geography
Northeastern suburbs of Adelaide. Makin covers most of Tea Tree Gully council area as well as parts of Salisbury council area east of Main North Road and a small part of Port Adelaide Enfield council area. Major suburbs include Para Hills, Walkley Heights, Modbury, Redwood Park, Tea Tree Gully, Golden Grove, Greenwith, Salisbury East and Salisbury Heights.

History
Makin was created at the 1984 election as part of the  expansion of the House of Representatives. It has begun to develop as a bellwether seat, having been won by the party of government at every election since its creation.

The seat was first won by ALP candidate Peter Duncan, a state MP who had served as a state minister from 1975 until the defeat of the Corcoran government in 1979. Duncan served as a federal minister from the 1987 election until the 1990 election, when he was demoted to a Parliamentary Secretary position which he held until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996.

Duncan lost Makin to Liberal candidate Trish Draper at the 1996 election. Draper held Makin for the entirety of the Howard government, although she never moved off the backbench. Her margin was cut to less than 1% at the 2004 election, and she retired before the 2007 election.

At the 2007 election the ALP’s Tony Zappia won Makin with a swing of over 8%.

Candidates

  • Jasemin Rose (Greens)
  • Michael Gameau (Liberal Democrats)
  • Robert Stewart (Climate Sceptics)
  • Anton Horvat (One Nation)
  • Tony Zappia (Labor) – Member for Makin since 2007.
  • Liz Davies (Liberal)
  • Wayne Rich (Democrats)
  • Mark Potter (Family First)

Political situation
This seat has become a key marginal seat, and is the sort of seat that the Liberal Party would like to win back. Having said that, the Labor margin is now quite substantial and a Liberal win on a uniform swing would produce a massive majority. You would have to think that the ALP’s vote is at its peak and that the Liberal Party can claw back ground in 2010, although it will be hard for them to regain the seat without a very strong result.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Zappia ALP 44,890 51.45 +8.43
Bob Day LIB 33,390 38.27 -6.44
Graham Smith GRN 3,751 4.30 +0.51
Andrew Graham FF 3,096 3.55 -1.37
Aleisha Brown DEM 1,198 1.37 -0.38
Robert Fechner ON 502 0.58 -0.26
Garry Vandersluis LDP 428 0.49 +0.49

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Zappia ALP 50,346 57.70 +8.63
Bob Day LIB 36,909 42,30 -8.63

Booth breakdown
The majority of voters in Makin lie within the Tea Tree Gully council area. Booths in that council area have been divided into two areas: north and south. The remainder of booths, most of which lie in Salisbury council area, have been grouped as “Salisbury”.

The ALP won its largest majority in the Salisbury area, where they polled over 64%, while polling in the low 50s in the Tea Tree Gully area.

 

Polling booths in Makin. Salisbury in red, Tea Tree Gully North in blue, Tea Tree Gully South in green.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Salisbury 3.77 64.49 29,587 33.91
Tea Tree Gully South 5.09 55.03 25,624 29.37
Tea Tree Gully North 3.54 52.38 18,306 20.98
Other votes 4.97 55.15 13,738 15.74
Results of the 2007 federal election in Makin.

9 COMMENTS

  1. I tend to think that the Labor vote is overstated in Makin because of the enormous antipathy the electorate felt against Trish Draper toward the end – and they only got to take it out on Bob Day.

    I would expect a correction of a few percent toward the Libs at the 2010 election.

  2. Maybe Hamish if the Libs had a better candidate.
    Draper in the state election shows what a poor candidate can do in this area.
    But for 2010 Makin they’ve got someone from outside the area who tried to run in Norwood and has no great support from faction heads or party office.
    I think ALP vote will hold this time.

  3. I have seen Liz Davies out and about talking to small business owners and people in the Makin electorate. She is polite and listens to my needs. As a small business owner, she understands the challenges that I have in my business and is assisting me with those challenges.

  4. Noah with respect for your comments regarding the liberal candidate for Makin, I can’t agree with you ( Ann-Marie has it spot on ). She is well regarded in the Makin electorate and employs many local people in this community. I have read Liz’s Davies profile and I believe the Liberal Party is very fortunate to have someone of her caliber representing them in this Labor strong hold. Noah have you ever had the guts to put your hand up to serve the people. I think you should get you facts correct before you make a fool of yourself.

  5. I still haven’t seen a poster for Liz Davies in many parts of the electorate which doesn’t do her much good.

    Bob day is running in Family First and I’m wondering how many Liberal voters will vote for him thinking he is the LIberal candidate.

    You may see a small swing to LIberals, but I think Zappia will hold, he scored a big majority atb the last election.

  7. Who is Liz Davies? I have never heard of her and we have lived in this area for 22 years. Believe me, she had better get some information out to the people soon or she’ll only get about three votes!

  8. I think the Liberal party are treating the Makin people with contempt. It took about a week for the liberal candidate to even put up posters – then she drove around in that silly car with the pink batts on when it was the program not the batts that was the problem. I haven’t had her knock on my door and she didn’t even turn up to a street corner meeting she had advertised. I haven’t had anything in my letterbox and she has never knocked on my door. I don’t know who she is or what she stands for, and I have lived in the area for 19 years First Trish Draper and now Liz Davies. Time you treated the North-east with a bit of respect Liberal party. Give us a decent candidate for a change so we can have a real choice!

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