Longman – Election 2010

ALP 1.9%

Incumbent MP
Jon Sullivan, since 2007.

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

Redistribution
The suburb of Kallangur on the northern outskirts of Brisbane was transferred to Dickson, and Mango Hill and Deception Bay were transferred to Petrie. The northwestern rural parts of Moreton Bay LGA were transferred from Fisher to Longman.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

Candidates

  • Jon Sullivan (Labor) – Member for Longman since 2007.
  • Andrew Jackson (Democratic Labor Party)
  • Michael van Boeckel (Independent)
  • Rod Blair (Greens)
  • Clair McErlane (Family First)
  • Bob Fox (Independent)
  • Wyatt Roy (Liberal National)
  • Josh van Veen (Liberal Democrats)
  • John Reece (Independent)

Political situation
The LNP will be targetting this seat, but their candidate selection does not augur well for their chances. In 2007, prominent minister Brough managed to lose, and this would suggest that the new, 19-year-old candidate would have little chance of regaining the seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jon Sullivan ALP 39,434 47.98 +10.92
Mal Brough LIB 36,009 43.82 -7.32
Paul Costin GRN 3,486 4.24 +0.36
Peter Urquhart FF 1,525 1.86 -1.35
Liz Oss-Emer DEM 1,153 1.40 -0.29
Trent MacDonald LDP 410 0.50 +0.50
Dan Winniak CEC 166 0.20 +0.20

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jon Sullivan ALP 44,026 53.57 +10.32
Mal Brough LIB 38,157 46.43 -10.32

Results do not take into account effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided between the three major centres of the electorate (Burpengary, Morayfield and Caboolture). In addition, booths in the west of the seat have been grouped together, as have booths in the Pumicestone/Bribie Island area. The ALP won the three main urban areas while the Liberals won the rural areas.

Polling booths in Longman. Caboolture in green, Morayfield in red, Burpengary in blue, West in yellow and Pumicestone in orange.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Burpengary 4.85 52.77 15,057 26.28
Pumicestone 3.43 46.23 14,135 24.67
Morayfield 4.63 54.78 12,371 21.59
Caboolture 4.66 57.26 9,834 17.16
West 4.45 48.96 5,907 10.31
Other votes 4.54 51.43 13,980
Polling booths in Longman, showing results of the 2007 election.

51 COMMENTS

  1. Jon Sullivan is not well liked in this seat.
    The chances of the coalition regaining this one is quite high although there doesnt seem to be any takers at this time.
    Caboolture/Morayfield though are very strong ALP areas, and one wonders how Mal Brough managed to hold on for so long.

    An easy seat to campaign in though and with limited entries and exits shouldn’t hurt the purse strings for any one up to having a go.

    Our candidate just received a transfer out of the area. I’m sure that Jon and Karen his wife the state member there, would have been happy to see him go. I’m sure the phone Fax and email traffic has eased some.

  4. That video is just one big WTF.

    Also, Wyatt Roy seems to be this guy who ran for the UQ student union last year, for ‘Fresh’ (the Young Libs grouping):

    http://www.votefresh.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18&Itemid=15

    So, if he’s 19 now, he’s just starting third year… one of those scarily ambitious little kids who get into student politics that quickly. How the hell did he get preselected for a marginal, winnable seat? Surely he wasn’t the only one to nominate.

  5. Oh wow, he looks 16.

    “As the son of a strawberry farmer, I know what hard works means and I know that real outcomes are only the result of hard work.”

    Now how’s that for qualifications.

  6. Wow, that youtube clip. He’s going to be hammered. No way Baby Boomers will vote for some 19 year old young liberal. Still, not a bad effort; his first vote will be for himself.

  7. Eek…makes you wonder what the other two candidates were like (the “guys”, as he called them, so I’m assuming they are male).

  8. In all my time following politics, this is the stupidest preselection I have ever come across. Surely the LNP exec will overrule this. Why have Gambaro and Vasta run in Brisbane and Bonner – much tougher seats to win and this upstart run in Brough’s patch

  10. Roy has allegedly gone into hiding.

    Is that correct that Michael Palmer has got the nod for Moreton? Other reports suggest he’s merely in the running for it, but it’s not finalised yet.

  11. I thought the LNP would be wise enough to distance themselves from the Young Libs that are currently running the UQ Union. That organisation is poison and anyone who’s involved in the current administration can kiss their political career goodbye.

  12. @James……. Strange that it’s been a week and nothing about him has appeared on the LNP Website.

    Maybe they’re having second thoughts ?

  18. Nah, I’ve never been much of a Reagan fan and it’s not my electorate in any case I’m afraid Tony.

    The real question is where will you be standing?

  19. My postion is already been announced.
    I will lead the Queensland Senate Team along with Angelque Barr at no 2 and Scientist Noel Jackson No 3.

    2 House of Reps seats will be annouced this week. (Moreton and Griffith) followed by other announcements in the Northern Suburbs and North Queensland where pre-selections are taking place.

  20. Let me repeat that.

    I will be the Lead Senate Candidate for the DLP Queensland
    Senate Ticket. So the Ticket will be:
    No 1 is Tony Zegenhagen
    No 2 is Angelique Barr
    No 3 is Noel Jackson

    Moreton has now been Pre-Selected – Lee Nightingale
    Griffith has now been Pre- Selected – Derek Rosborough

    We are currently seeking Pre-Selection for 2 Northern Suburb seats and I North Queensland seat will will let you know the results over the next two weeks.

  22. Have been doing so for quite awhile.
    Seem to have a good flow from other minors and just need to square away the majors. (Although some meetings have taken place) The massive campaign against the State government’s asset sales is working for us as well as we are also getting some support from the unions)
    Lower House seats will be up to the branch and state executives and now possibly union requests IE which ones the unions are targeting.
    QRail although a State issue certainly will affect the nation as a whole as it controls rail services from Newcastle to Geraldon.

    One of the most successfull public enterprises in the world

  24. Actually no they didn’t. They never had it on there. They don’t appear to have updated the list for a couple of months. I check about once a week to see if there are any new candidates who haven’t been mentioned elsewhere. Though perhaps the fact they haven’t been updating the page might indicate second thoughts too.

  25. Ah, thanks for clearing that up Nick.

    The Libs are really shooting themselves in the foot in Brissie. First Dickson, then Longman, now Ryan.

  29. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/abbott-backs-political-tyro-20100615-ych9.html

    Abbott apparently backs Roy.

    “Everyone who has met Wyatt is impressed,” Mr Abbott said.

    “I think he has ample capacity to be an effective local member and make a significant contribution to the national polity.”

    Wow. It’s just amazing. I seriously think he will be crucified at the ballot box. Honestly, who here can say that at age 20 they were ready to take on a job like that? The Libs are taking a spoon to a knife fight.

  30. I think it will be interesting to see how much having a Roy run instead of a say Brough or Dutton will cost the LNP. 4 or 5% maybe? Probably even more than what Ross Cameron cost the Libs in Parramatta in 2004 or Nicole Cornes the ALP in Boothby 2007. It is just absolute lunacy – without him they are probably favourites for the seat, with him I would say a 1 in 10 shot at best.

  33. Preferences havent been decided yet.

    Both the major candidates arent gaining the support they would need, and there is a huge protest vote or undecided that we are aiming to grab,.

    The Branch in Longman has not indicated to the State Executive on how preferences will be placed there. Its customary for the Candidate and Branch to work out preferences.

    No contact from either Candidate has been made with either the candidate, Branch or executive.

  34. Some of the comments here are downright discriminatory.Any wonder older people struggle to get jobs later on life in preference to younger people when we do the same towards younger people aspiring towards offices not usually sought by young people. Ageism is alive and well in Australia. Of course experience is not on young people’s sides but there are also older experienced politicians who act like schoolchildren and blunder and blunder, time after time.

  35. Oh please. We are discussing the viability of a candidate. A 20 year old with no experience in the community, business or politics, who hasn’t yet finished his university degree is not viable.

    People vote for people that they believe: a) have done exceptional things in the community b) have proven them self in their field c) have a sound policy platform.

    Roy, like all mid-degree 20 year olds, has not done anything exceptional, has not yet learned the tricks of whatever he’s studying, let alone proven it and has no record of understanding policy at all. This is not his fault, but it is the facts. To say that it’s ageism is just stupid. People shouldn’t elect a 20 year old with no intellectual, policy or community background as their MP anymore than he should be hired as a magistrate. His age is not the issue, but his lack of qualificiations, which are things you accumulate with age.

  36. There is absolutely no way I am voting for a kid straight out of highschool. I would feel like I am throwing my vote down the drain in attempting to elect someone younger than me to run the longman electorate. It irritates me that the news refers to this guy as some kind of political prodigy when in reality, this is probably some campaign being pushed by his parents. What kind of experience does he have in dealing with any issues the electorates face? He has probably never or just started to live out of home. We could assume he has owned one car at most in his life, never paid rates, never got a loan, never had to pay an electricity or water bill – let alone understand the policy considerations which may overlap these issues. I will be voting for someone that knows what there doing, not someone who will have to ask Mummy and Daddy for help.

  37. One thing that has stood out so far in this campaigne is that my campaign and Wyatt Roy’s campaign is being paide for by our supporters but that Jon Sullivans is being bapidc for by the taxpayer funded “printing allowance”
    Andrew Jackson
    DLP Candidate fdor Longman
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  38. I’d be tempted to put up sign and adds without his mug. Some 20 year olds might look 25, but he looks about 16.

  42. Labor is knackered in several seats in NSW and QLD – why else do you think Labor staffers have been betting against the ALP in some marginals in these states through Centrebet?

    If you can keep any of these your going well.
    Herbert
    Macquarie
    Longman
    Bowman
    Dawson
    Flynn
    Forde
    Leichhardt
    Lindsay
    Robertson

  44. Bowman are Herbert already held by the Liberal National Party. They (along with Dickson) will be close, but the LNP should hold on.

    The most likely new LNP victories in Qld are Dawson, Leichardt, Flynn & Wright (new seat)… followed by Longman and Forde. After that, Petrie, Bonner, Brisbane and Moreton (all Brisbane seats) come into play… though it’s no clear to me that the urban seats are swinging the same as the rural/regional seats.

  46. I sent an email with some questions on Labor policies to our Longman sitting member three weeks ago, still waiting some / any kind of acknowledgement.

    Why would you bother to vote for a guy who can’t bother to even acknowledge receipt of your correspondence?

  47. At the last Federal election, Sullivan didnt even expect to win. He was only preselected because the only other alternative was to let serial failed candidate Stephen Beckett yet another crack at it.

  48. All the polling by everyone here suggests that the ALP are in big trouble. Not only that, but I hear the ALP condidate has somewhat gone to ground.

  50. Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

    I don’t think Labor will hold this at all.

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