Longman – Election 2010

ALP 1.9%

Incumbent MP
Jon Sullivan, since 2007.

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

Redistribution
The suburb of Kallangur on the northern outskirts of Brisbane was transferred to Dickson, and Mango Hill and Deception Bay were transferred to Petrie. The northwestern rural parts of Moreton Bay LGA were transferred from Fisher to Longman.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

Candidates

• Jon Sullivan (Labor) – Member for Longman since 2007.
• Andrew Jackson (Democratic Labor Party)
• Michael van Boeckel (Independent)
• Rod Blair (Greens)
• Clair McErlane (Family First)
• Bob Fox (Independent)
• Wyatt Roy (Liberal National)
• Josh van Veen (Liberal Democrats)
• John Reece (Independent)

Political situation
The LNP will be targetting this seat, but their candidate selection does not augur well for their chances. In 2007, prominent minister Brough managed to lose, and this would suggest that the new, 19-year-old candidate would have little chance of regaining the seat.

2007 result

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Results do not take into account effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided between the three major centres of the electorate (Burpengary, Morayfield and Caboolture). In addition, booths in the west of the seat have been grouped together, as have booths in the Pumicestone/Bribie Island area. The ALP won the three main urban areas while the Liberals won the rural areas.