Kingsford Smith – Election 2010

ALP 13.3%

Incumbent MP
Peter Garrett, since 2004.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Kingsford Smith covers Sydney Airport, Port Botany and the southern parts of the Eastern suburbs, including Mascot, Botany, Coogee and Maroubra.

Redistribution
Kingsford Smith gained no territory. Prior to the redistribution it covered a small area in the southeastern corner of the City of Sydney around the suburb of Rosebery, and the redistribution transferred that area into the seat of Sydney. This had practically no impact on the seat’s margin.

History
Kingsford Smith was first created for the 1949 election after the House of Representatives was expanded. The seat has always been held by the ALP, originally being a marginal seat in its early years before gradually becoming safer, and it has been solidly safe since at least the 1960s.

Gordon Anderson (ALP) won the seat in 1949 with a bare 50.9% margin over the Liberal Party, and only won a 50.5% margin upon reelection in 1951. Anderson won with 54.2% in 1954, before retiring in 1955.

The seat was won in 1955 by Daniel Curtin (ALP), who had previously held the seat of Watson since 1949. Curtin won in 1955 with 55% of the vote, and the seat’s has only dipped below 5% once since 1955, in the 1966 landslide.

Curtin held the seat until 1969, and in that time solidified the ALP’s hold on the seat, but was almost defeated at his last election in 1966.

Curtin retired in 1969 and was succeeded by the state member for Randwick, Lionel Bowen, who won the seat with a margin over 10% for the first time. Bowen was a minister in the Whitlam government and became a senior member of the ALP in opposition in the late 1970s.

Bowen served as Deputy Prime Minister for the first three terms of the Hawke government, from 1983 until his retirement at the 1990 election.

He was succeeded in 1990 by Laurie Brereton. Brereton had briefly succeeded Bowen as member for Randwick from 1970 until the seat was abolished in 1971, when he moved to the seat of Heffron. Brereton served as a minister in the Wran and Unsworth governments before switching to the federal arena in 1990, after the Liberals won a landslide victory in New South Wales.

Brereton served as a federal minister in the final term of the Keating government and served as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1996 until 2001, when he moved to the backbench.

In 2004 Brereton retired and was succeeded by Peter Garrett, former lead singer of Midnight Oil and President of the Australian Conservation Foundation. Garrett had also previously run for the Nuclear Disarmament Party in the Senate at the 1984 election, losing due to the Labor and Liberal parties preferencing each other over the NDP.

Garrett joined the ALP frontbench upon the election of Kevin Rudd as Labor leader in late 2006, and has served as Minister for the Environment, Heritage and the Arts since the 2007 election.

Candidates

  • Michael Feneley (Liberal)
  • Peter Garrett (Labor) – Member for Kingsford Smith since 2004, Minister for Environment Protection, Heritage and the Arts.
  • Zac Hambides (Socialist Equality Party)
  • Josh Carmont (Democrats)
  • Lindsay Shurey (Greens)
  • John Cunningham (One Nation)

Political situation
This safe seat will continue to be safe for the ALP in 2010.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Garrett ALP 45,831 52.85 +4.24
Caroline Beinke LIB 29,402 33.90 -2.13
Sue Mahony GRN 8,995 10.37 +2.53
Marcus Campbell CDP 1,402 1.62 +1.62
Alex Safari SEP 1,096 1.26 +1.26

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Peter Garrett ALP 54,889 63.29 +4.56
Caroline Beinke LIB 31,837 36.71 -4.56

Booth breakdown
Kingsford Smith covers all of the City of Botany and most of the City of Randwick. It also covers a part of the City of Rockdale, but this area is entirely contained within Sydney Airport, and has no resident population. I have divided Randwick booths between those closer to Coogee and those closer to Maroubra. The ALP polled over 70% in Botany in 2007. In contrast, it polled around 61% in both Coogee and Maroubra areas. While the ALP two-party preferred vote is fairly consistent across Randwick council area, the Greens perform much stronger toward the north, polling almost 14% in Coogee, 8.6% in Maroubra and just under 7% in Botany.

 

Polling booths in Kingsford Smith. Botany in green, Maroubra in blue, Coogee in yellow.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Coogee 13.94 61.25 26,713 40.32
Maroubra 8.59 61.07 21,972 33.17
Botany 6.96 70.18 17,564 26.51
Other votes 10.91 62.08 17,976
Polling booths in Kingsford Smith, showing results of the 2007 election.

38 COMMENTS

  1. Obviously nothing interesting is going to happen here for a while, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for the future. Mascot, Rosebery, Maroubra, Botany etc are slowly gentrifying, with young professional types taking the place of working class and public housing areas.

    Long term I’m sure both Greens and Liberals will be factoring this into their calculations.

  2. MDM – if you look at the state seats within Kingsford Smith, you find that Coogee (which covers the northern part of KS, and actually less area that Ben has covered here as “Coogee” you’ll find that’s already the case. The northern part of Maroubra is going that way, but even while we’re seeing gentrification, say at Little Bay or Malabar, its going to take a LONG time to change the demographic of places like Eastgardens, Hillsdale, Botany and Broadmeadows. And then there’s Eastlakes, Mascot and Pagewood. Mascot is changing but very slowly. Rosebery is now in Sydney (and in Heffron), so perhaps see some changes there, but again while the northern end around Green Square is changing rapidly, down around Gardeners Rd its much slower. And then we have to consider who’s moving in there. If you look at the booth around Coral Sea Park (in Maroubra), you find that’s got a huge lump of public housing there which ain’t voting Green any time soon! I actually think that Kingsford Smith is pretty safe ALP for the foreseeable future, but with the state seats of Coogee and Heffron being in more danger (but not Maroubra) in the short and medium term respectively.

  3. There’s one small Liberal voting booth on the map. Is that Maroubra Beach?

    As a very recently new resident to Mascot, I can tell you that there is a lot of new and to be built high density residential around the station that isn’t what you would call ‘traditional’ Labor, though, correspondingly, it’s an area that is likely to be more friendly to a candidate like Garrett than to a ‘traditional’ Labor candidate.

  4. Yes, looking at my table, that one and only Liberal booth in Kingsford-Smith is the Maroubra East booth. What’s the go with that area?

  5. There are some very expensive houses there which may influence the vote, but I’m still surprised, it’s a very surfy boho kind of area otherwise.

  7. Hamish C is right about the new residential going in around Mascot, but it’s still outwieghed by places like Eastlakes (public housing, low and medium rise developments) and the eastern end of Mascot, plus ther’s still large slabs covered with industrial and commercial properties.

    re East Maroubra – that booth is just next to Lurline Bay – very pretty. There’s some big swanky houses up there, plenty of “architech designed” places, and people who moved there to retire. I’ve handed out there before – when Garrett visited the booth, I offered him an apple, to which he offered me a donut… The surfy boho stuff is a little closer to the basin.

    BTW, have a nice surf Hamish!

  8. Thanks Stewart, it was a bit choppy but still a great way to spend a Friday evening.

    The area in and around Eastlakes Shopping Centre can be a rather depressing little place; a classic working class/public housing suburb. It’s amazing what a train station can do for a suburb!

    I’m glad that Garrett wasn’t punted over the insulation saga, in part because I don’t think ministerial responsibility should go that far and also that I think Garrett is a positive influence on the ALP, and you’d hardly think he would run again if he weren’t a minister.

    Bit of trivia: PG is the second oldest minister in the Rudd Government, behind Simon Crean.

  10. Good find Nick. Notley-Smith is a pretty good person for a Lib. He’s clearly a moderate (which I guess they would need in a seat like Coogee) and as the article says should be the clear favourite. In my opinion he also has a pretty good following from his mayoral days.

  11. Hamish, what do you reckon about Pearce, will he end up quitting the party and running as an independent?

  12. Nick, I doubt it. Pearce wouldn’t win as an indi and I suspect he knows that. If he does quit, I think he would just quit and leave politics. I don’t think he is disgruntled enough to quit and split the Labor vote in Coogee by running. My bet is still that he will run as the ALP candidate and while Notley-Smith should be the favourite, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Pearce hung on.

  13. Pearce will stay with the ALP unless a nasty deal is snuck up on him (there was one rumoured for a while which would have put a right faction member in – once said to be Roozendaal). I know Bruce, and yes, he is a nice guy, but at the end of the day he will vote in Parliament as a Liberal (no different from Pearce and the ALP). That said, I think Notley-Smith will win Coogee, unless O’Farrell stuffs up. Green voters wont get Pearce home – 1/3 of Green voters exhausted their preferences last time, and I think that will rise higher – and as Notley-Smith is a moderate the flow from Greens – Liberal is likely to be higher than the 11% (of primary) it was last time. Perhaps the real issue will be what the swing is against Pearce and which way will it go – to the Libs or to the Greens.

  14. Anyone heard about who won Liberal preselection for Coogee? I can’t see anything in the locals.

  17. There doesn’t seem to be a link yet, but Notley-Smith’s preselection is in the digital edition of the Southern Courier (p.10) for the next week.

    http://digitaledition.southerncourier.com.au/

    “Notley-Smith identified Coogee Bay Hotel’s Town Square-redevelopment and anti-social issues as major issues.”

    Kind of ironic given that he actually had a chance to do something about the CBH development on council or as Mayor but was one of the more pro-CBH development types on council.

  18. Hamish, Bruce is a shrewd political operator. Just look at the last mayoral elections.

    Tony Bowen was the ALP backed candidate for mayor and was also a likely preselection challenger for Coogee.

    Bruce and his Liberal colleagues gathered enough votes to elect a different ALP councillor who has since been kicked out of the ALP for it.

    Not only did Bruce split the Randwick ALP councillors in two by backing a Labor rat, he also denied Tony Bowen the profile he would have wanted if he were to challenge Paul Pearce for Coogee.

    It was quite a play.

  19. So Hamish, Stewart, Sam, what can you tell us about the No Parking Meters Party, who have now apparently registered to contest the state election? Aren’t they just a local party down there, what interest would they have in state politics?

  20. Nick, sorry, missed your post for a while there.

    No Parking Meters Party is a party run for the ego of Randwick Councillor Charles Matthews – a man who only got in because he had Rugby League player Craig Wing as number 2 on his ticket. Matthews has been in council forever (according to the council website 1977-2004 and then 2008 to present). After he was elected to Council the last time around Matthews made the dubious claim that ‘he and Craig Wing’ would run for the NSW legislative Council to ‘rid NSW of parking meters.’

    I think that’s pretty well all the party’s ‘platform’ and all anyone needs to know about them. If Craig Wing runs with him again they may poll 1% state-wide, but I doubt it. I think he’s just doing it to get exposure for his next Council tilt.

  21. I had a chat to Paul Pearce at the Ian Cohen fundraiser at Parliament House last night. He said he was gearing up for the election, so I guess that’s confirmation.

  23. Theres’s a great article on page 9 of today’s Southern Courier – http://digitaledition.southerncourier.com.au/ until 24/5/10 (no real link I’m afraid) about the No Parking Meters Party state election launch. Councillor Matthews desribes parking meters as ‘cash cows’ for the state (ignoring that parking meters are overwhelmingly run by councils), claims that parking meters are ‘another tax on working families’ and said that ‘removing parking meters is the top priority for all 15 party candidates vying for an upper house seat at the next state election.’ Which is great, except that removing parking meters would encourage car use instead of public transport and result in congestion and parking chaos, especially in the City.

    There’s also a great photo of a cow with a dollar sign on its head (a cash cow).

  27. http://www.notleysmith.com/

    Notley-Smith has a not bad website up. I note that all of his references are from warriors of the moderate Liberal faction. I wonder if Bruce is more involved in internal Lib machinations than I thought?

    Nice letter to the Southern the other week by the way Stewart.

  31. I think the Liberals will win the state seat of Coogee comfortably. The rise in the Green vote won’t be enough to win IMO, and will do nothing except split Labor’s vote under OPV.

  34. Socialist Equality. Sorry, it’s a Friday. I did see a report that called them ‘Socialist Equity’ – sounds like some kind of failed bank. 🙂

  36. Kingsford-smith will be Labor for the forseeable future for two main reasons.

    1. Every suburb south of Randwick has big public housing plots and a surprisingly big working class base. Mascot, Eastlakes, Botany, La perouse, hillsdale, chifley, matraville, eastgardens, little bay, south maroubra, maroubra junction, daceyville, kingsford – all of these suburbs have big public housing lots, and all have large working class areas, and all of them vote labor in massive numbers.

    Even the middle class areas have quite high-density housing – Randwick, Kingsford and Coogee have a lot of units and flats. There’s very little in the way of mortgage belt stuff like outer western Sydney, or extravagent stuff like in Wentworth. The only areas you see much of that are in south coogee and kensington – coincidentally, the best liberal booths.

    That rogue liberal booth in south coogee can be explained – there’s a lot of expensive houses with ocean views on the coast around there. But it’s a tiny booth – and even around there you’ll find a few public housing blocks.

    2.The existing middle class, and the new gentrifying areas tend to be socially progressive and are quite young. Plenty of those people are younger finance workers, bankers, real estate agents, small business people, insurance salespeople, professionals and public servants – but check out the greens vote in Coogee and South Randwick.

    The liberals will win the seat of coogee at the next election, but that seat stretches well into bondi junction and doesn’t have the public housing density of maroubra. Even so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the anti-labor swing split quite closely between the liberals and greens around coogee, clovelly and randwick.

  37. The Socialist Equality Party have been around for a couple of elections now. The most noteworthy thing about them is the loopy way they allocate Senate preferences. Presumably believing Labor, Liberal and Greens are equally bad, both this time and last time they have run tickets splitting their preferences 1/3 to each. They then fill in the remaining preferences on the ballot paper by preferencing the remaining tickets in ballot paper order – producing the situation both this time and in 2007 where, in a contest between the Liberals and Greens, 2/3 of their preferences would go to the Liberals!

    I invite someone from the SEP to explain their preference strategy.

    My prediction here: 2% swing to Libs. Garrett forced to preferences.

  38. Looks like washing out at around 55% Labor. That would be the lowest margin in the seat’s history wouldn’t it?

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