ALP 11.6%
Incumbent MP
Anthony Byrne, since 1999.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Holt covers the northwestern parts of Casey council area, on the edge of Melbourne. Suburbs include Cranbourne, Lynbrook, Narre Warren South, Hampton Park, Hallam, Eumemmerring,, Doveton and Endeavour Hills.
History
Holt was created at the 1969 election. It has mostly been held by the ALP, usually as a safe seat, except for a couple of elections.
Holt was first won in 1969 by former Liberal state MP Len Reid. Reid lost in 1972 to the ALP’s Max Oldmeadows.
Oldmeadows held the seat for two terms, losing in 1975 to Liberal candidate William Yates.
Yates held the seat until 1980, when he lost to the ALP’s Michael Duffy. The ALP has held Holt ever since.
Duffy served as a minister in the Labor federal government from 1983 to 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
Holt was won in 1996 by senior Labor figure Gareth Evans. Evans had been a Senator since 1977, and had served as a cabinet minister for the entire length of the Hawke/Keating government. He moved to Holt in 1996, and was elected Deputy Leader of the Labor Party after the defeat of the Keating government.
Evans retired in 1999, and the ensuing by-election was easily won by the ALP’s Anthony Byrne, with no Liberal opposition. Byrne has served as a Parliamentary Secretary since the election of the Rudd government in 2007.
Candidates
- Frank Di Mascolo (Greens)
- Ricardo Balancy (Liberal)
- Mark Hitchins (Secular Party)
- Ian George (Family First)
- Anthony Byrne (Labor) – Member for Holt since 1999.
Political situation
This seat is reasonably safe for the ALP, although it was held by a very slim margin after the 2004 election.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Byrne | ALP | 51,689 | 55.65 | +9.98 |
| Emanule Cicchiello | LIB | 31,785 | 34.22 | -8.63 |
| Yasmin de Zilwa | FF | 4,076 | 4.39 | +0.22 |
| Lynette Keleher | GRN | 3,823 | 4.12 | -0.34 |
| Ken Seymour | DEM | 1,155 | 1.24 | -0.18 |
| Chris Morgan | CEC | 347 | 0.37 | -1.06 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Byrne | ALP | 57,237 | 61.63 | +10.12 |
| Emanuele Cicchiello | LIB | 35,638 | 38.37 | -10.12 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Holt have been divided into four areas: the northern areas, and then Narre Warren South in the east of the seat, Cranbourne in the south and Hampton Park in the centre of the seat.
The ALP won a majority in all areas. They won just short of 70% in Hampton Park, and only won 57% in Narre Warren South.
| Voter group | FF % | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 4.22 | 3.90 | 63.90 | 29,092 | 31.32 |
| Narre Warren South | 4.41 | 3.55 | 57.27 | 15,870 | 17.09 |
| Cranbourne | 5.01 | 4.24 | 60.63 | 15,739 | 16.95 |
| Hampton Park | 4.46 | 4.13 | 69.93 | 12,387 | 13.34 |
| Other votes | 4.08 | 4.79 | 57.39 | 19,787 | 21.30 |
William Yates the last Liberal MP was a former British MP who opposed Suez and who completed a history PhD at 83:
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/12/06/1070625578322.html
My prediction: Looks to be a big margin for Labor already, so probably negligible swing to them this year.