NAT 1.5%
Incumbent MP
Paul Neville, since 1993.
Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.
Redistribution
Hinkler was reduced in size, losing rural areas to the south of the new seat. These included rural areas transferred to Flynn and Wide Bay, as well as rural areas outside of Maryborough.
History
Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984. It was won by Bryan Conquest (NAT), who only held the seat until 1987, when Brian Courtice (ALP) won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and has held it ever since.
The ALP’s challenge to the seat in 2007 foundered when their candidate, Garry Parr, attacked the parents of an Australian soldier as “warmongers“, yet the Nationals suffered a 6.7% swing, reducing their margin to 1.7%.
Candidates
- Jenny Fitzgibbon (Greens)
- Belinda McNeven (Labor) – Deputy Mayor of Fraser Coast.
- Trevor Versace (Family First)
- Cy D’Oliviera (Independent)
- Paul Neville (Liberal National) – Member for Hinkler since 1993.
- Adrian Wone (Independent)
Political situation
Hinkler is a seat where the ALP came close in 2007 despite major problems with their local campaign and a candidate making major mistakes. If the ALP runs a stronger campaign in the seat in 2010 Hinkler is certainly vulnerable.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Neville | NAT | 38,194 | 46.44 | -2.12 |
| Garry Parr | ALP | 35,267 | 42.88 | +8.91 |
| Charles Dickes | GRN | 3,383 | 4.11 | +0.38 |
| Cameron Rub | FF | 2,886 | 3.51 | -0.63 |
| Roy Wells | IND | 1,887 | 2.29 | +0.67 |
| Robert Bromwich | DEM | 632 | 0.77 | -0.24 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Neville | NAT | 42,515 | 51.69 | -6.65 |
| Garry Parr | ALP | 39,734 | 48.31 | +6.65 |
Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
Hinkler straddles two local government areas: Bundaberg and Fraser Coast. I have divided the booths in Bundaberg LGA into three areas: those in the city of Bundaberg itself, those rural areas near Bundaberg (named after the former Woongarra shire) and those rural areas further afield (named after the former Isis shire).
| Voter group | GRN % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| Fraser Coast | 4.76 | 52.70 | 26,501 | 41.95 |
| Bundaberg | 3.60 | 47.36 | 23,640 | 37.42 |
| Woongarra | 4.14 | 54.17 | 9,471 | 14.99 |
| Isis | 3.34 | 52.26 | 3,559 | 5.63 |
| Other votes | 3.81 | 53.93 | 17,159 |
Hinkler extended north to include Labor-voting Gladstone prior to 2004. In 1996 Neville built up the margin to over 10%, he then lost most of that in a big 2PP swing back to Labor in 1998, when there was also a 19% One Nation vote. In 2001 there was a further 2PP swing to Labor, which saw Neville hold on by just 64 votes (a 9.6% vote for an independent no doubt having some effect). The redistribution prior to 2004 increased the Nats margin a little, and Neville securely held on with a 2.7% swing to him.
The redistribution prior to 2007 radically changed the seat, losing Gladstone and everything north of Bundaberg, and instead gaining the Hervey Bay area. The effect was to almost double Neville’s notional margin. Without the more reliably Labor-voting Gladstone this is a more difficult seat for them to win than it was in the past. However, the modern Hinkler, with its second large urban centre being the Hervey Bay area, which is far from rural, now covers areas where changing demographics thanks to the influx of retirees and so forth are making it less secure for the Nats.
There is reason to believe this is more likely to be won by the ALP than Cowper, because they have a history of representation at the state level in this area, suggesting a stronger support base to work from.
“where changing demographics thanks to the influx of retirees and so forth are making it less secure for the Nats”
In a Nats vs Libs contest, definitely. But I’m not sure it helps Labor in a contest against either conservative party.
Depends where the retirees are from, in Tweed Heads Labor have done well from the growing retiree vote.
Some more local knowledge would be handy here, anyone know more about the sort of people moving to Hervey Bay?
You’re probably right though – if it’s anything like it was when I visited Hervey Bay years ago, it’s a very culturally conservative area.
I take that back. I’ve been studying the trends over time more closely, and, no, there’s no great evidence of Labor doing well from the retiree vote in the Tweed either. It’s more likely that any benefit gained by Labor is merely because of a lack of identification with the Nats from that voter bloc, which makes them more persuadable to vote for someone else, but still pretty conservative and far more likely to vote for a Liberal if one existed. Hence, perhaps the fact that the Qld candidates will be running under the LNP banner may help.
McNeven won the ALP preselection unopposed.
Hervey Bay pensioner Cy d’Oliviera is running here as an independent.
And the Greens candidate is Adrian Wone.
Two more candidates named in this report, Lester Gallagher of the Climate Sceptics, and Trevor Versace of Family First.
Greens candidate Adrian Wone quits over preferences to Labor. Quite strange given that Labor appears to be fielding the more progressive candidate over the Nationals.
Every local group decided to either hand over preference decisions to the national campaign committee, or to retain the right to make the decision themselves. My local Greens group handed the preferences over to the national Committee, and it has worked very well for us as it nullifies the scare campaign about preferences electing Liberals instead of Labor in this very safe Labor seat.
He foreshadowed his displeasure. A more detailed account.
Greens candidate Adrian Wone quit the party and may run as independent. see http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-candidate-quits-over-labor-deal/story-fn59niix-1225897218381
Alot of people have been very angry with Paul Neville ever since the 2004 election I was very surprised he won the last time & this time with a better candidate & alot of important policy measures in place that are looked on as favourable for the area being provided by Labor if they get in & not Liberal I think the Liberals might lose this one.
He’s only holding by 1.5% at the moment so it won’t take much more people to vote for ALP.
My prediction: Had this one going to Labor earlier in the year, but now have to tip Neville to hold with a 1-2% swing to him.