Griffith – Election 2010

ALP 12.3%

Incumbent MP
Kevin Rudd, since 1998.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Griffith covers the suburbs of Brisbane on the south side of the Brisbane river across the river from the Brisbane CBD, including South Brisbane itself, as well as Greenslopes, Holland Park, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, Coorparoo, Carina, Seven Hills, Morningside, Balmoral and Bulimba.

Redistribution
No changes.

History
 Griffith was created for the 1934 election, replacing the original seat of Oxley which was abolished at that election. Both Oxley and Griffith have been marginal seats, with Griffith swinging back and forth regularly between the Liberal Party and the ALP since 1949, although this has not usually coincided with national changes. The seat has become relatively safe for the ALP since it was won by Kevin Rudd in 1998.

The seat was first won in 1934 by Labor MP Francis Baker, who had previously won the seat of Oxley off the United Australia Party, ironically at an election when the UAP swept away the federal Labor government.

Baker was re-elected in 1937, but was killed in a car accident in 1939 at the age of 36. Ironically his father was elected to federal parliament in Maranoa in 1940, after his son’s term in Parliament.

The 1939 Griffith by-election was won by Labor candidate William Conelan. Conelan held the seat until he lost Griffith to Liberal candidate Douglas Berry in 1949.

Berry was re-elected in 1951 but lost to the ALP’s Wilfred Coutts. Coutts held on in 1955 but failed to win re-election in 1958, losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Chresby, and winning it back in 1961.

Coutts lost the seat once again in 1966, when the seat was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron held the seat for eleven years, moving to the new seat of Fadden in 1977. He held Fadden until his defeat in 1983, and returned to Parliament at the 1983 Moreton by-election, which he held until his retirement in 1990.

The ALP regained Griffith in 1977, with Ben Humphreys winning the seat. Humphreys served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1987 until 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.

The ALP preselected Kevin Rudd, but he lost to Graeme McDougall (LIB). McDougall only held on for one term, losing to Rudd in 1998. Rudd joined the ALP shadow ministry in 2001 as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, a role he held for five years.

Rudd’s profile rose as Shadow Foreign Minister, and he was considered a contender for the ALP leadership when Simon Crean resigned in 2003 and when Mark Latham resigned in 2005, but he waited until late 2006 when he challenged Kim Beazley, and was elected leader, and then proceeded to win the 2007 federal election, becoming Prime Minister.

Candidates

  • Gregory Romans (Liberal Democrats)
  • Hamish Chitts (Independent)
  • Jesse Webb (Family First)
  • Rebecca Docherty (Liberal National)
  • Emma-Kate Rose (Greens)
  • Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Kevin Rudd (Labor) – Member for Griffith since 1998. Prime Minister 2007-2010.

Political situation
Despite recent events, it would be extraordinary if Kevin Rudd lost Griffith, even in the case of a Liberal win nationally. The Liberal National Party originally preselected John Humphreys, an analyst at the Centre for Independent Studies, but Humphreys was removed by the LNP shortly before the election was called, as they considered the prospect of regaining Griffith if Rudd were to retire. Rudd didn’t retire, and the LNP has preselected a candidate with an even lower profile.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kevin Rudd ALP 43,957 53.09 +4.31
Craig Thomas LIB 28,133 33.98 -3.49
Willy Bach GRN 6,496 7.85 -0.97
P M Howard IND 2,264 2.73 +2.73
Rob Cotterill DEM 819 0.99 -0.33
Andrew Hassall FF 654 0.79 -1.17
Jim McIlroy SA 293 0.35 -0.35
Samantha Myers LDP 182 0.22 +0.22

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

 

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kevin Rudd ALP 51,600 62.32 +3.84
Craig Thomas LIB 31,198 37.68 -3.84

Booth breakdown
Booths in Griffith have been divided into four areas: South Brisbane, Greenslopes, Bulimba and East, which makes up those booths along the eastern boundary of the seat. The ALP won majorities of 61-4% across the seat, while the Greens polled much higher, with almost 14%, in South Brisbane, while they polled less than 5% in the east of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Griffith. East in yellow, Greenslopes in blue, South Brisbane in green, Bulimba in red.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Greenslopes 7.08 62.43 21,561 26.04
Bulimba 6.00 61.58 21,330 25.76
South Brisbane 13.93 64.28 13,203 15.95
East 4.84 62.32 9,133 11.03
Other votes 8.02 61.62 17,571 21.22
Results of the 2007 federal election in Griffith

22 COMMENTS

  1. I think the present boundaries cover areas that are stronger for Labor than the area covered by the seat in the 1990s.

    The Liberal candidate is quite noteworthy, having been the founder of the libertarian party which contested the last federal election under the name of the Liberty & Democracy Party, and is now renamed as the Liberal Democratic Party or Liberal Democrats, under which name they have contested elections in the ACT.

    Also noteworthy here is the Greens Senate vote, which, at 14.49% was significantly higher than the House of Reps vote. Indeed, the gap between the two was the fourth highest for any seat, behind the two ACT seats and Denison.

  2. Oh, and to add to that, Humphreys gained notoriety at the 2007 election, when, as the LDP’s Queensland Senate candidate, he reportedly took up smoking for the duration of the campaign period, just to exercise his right to do so.

  3. Nick,

    Yeah I think a few recent redistributions have made it much better for Labor….it’s pushed into the Green-friendly South Brisbane area and away from the more volatile middle/outer suburbs.

  4. Yes, just looking at the booth names from the 1996 results it appears it was centred a little further east where there are a couple of better Liberal booths, and further south along the freeway corridor. The South Brisbane area I think was in Moreton until 2004.

  8. I doubt many will. While there is some overlap between Green and libertarian philosophy, that Mr Humphreys represents Mr Abbott would be the first thing voters would notice.

  13. How to lose an election 101: “The Courier-Mail revealed earlier this year Mr Humphreys had advocated the scrapping of the aged pension.”

  14. Well Jeez Hamish… if you read it in the Courier Mail, then it must be true. 😉

    Last year I was invited to speak at the “Festival of Dangerous Ideas” on the topic of removing the aged pension. I went on to speak about how it might be replaced with a system of mutual funds which provided retirement income (and other benefits). A provocative title, yes… but anybody who actually listened to the speech (available online) or read my subsequent article would not describe my position as simply “scrap the aged pension”.

    The sustainability of our current system and potential reform options for the future are important topics that deserve serious scholarly consideration… not just pithy one-liners of condemnation.

  19. Hi all,

    It seems this website is replete with the same posters commenting on each electorate. I would like to read the thoughts of those in Griffith on how you see having the PM come from your electorate has been. Good? Difficult? Prestigious? Annoying? Any comments whatsoever are welcome.

    I live in Bennelong which was John Howard’s seat before he lost it to Maxine McKew in 2007. I’m interested in how another Prime Ministers handled the balance between the Prime Ministership and his/her electorate. All feedback is welcome but especially from those more politically active. I’m happy to share my experiences with you regarding Bennelong during the Howard years. You can find ‘an introduction’ on the Bennelong page of this website.

    Regards,
    Tom.
    tom.369@hotmail.com

  20. Kevin Rudd has seriously taken Griffith for granted. I live in Griffith and would love to see Rebecca draw a large swing to the LNP. Even though he was PM, Rudd should not have ignored his electorate.

  22. I have a feeling 2-3% swing to Mr Rudd, people in QLD are still very happy with Mr Rudd and angry at Mr Swan.

    Mr Swan might be in for a big shock

Comments are closed.