Gilmore – Election 2010

ALP 0.4%

Incumbent MP
Joanna Gash (Liberal Party), since 1996.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA. It also includes a small part of Shellharbour. The southernmost significant settlement is Ulladulla.

Redistribution
The recent redistribution shifted the seat of Gilmore to the north. The town of Bateman’s Bay was transferred from Gilmore into the seat of Eden-Monaro. Prior to the redistribution, parts of Kiama and the entirety of Shellharbour were contained in Throsby, and the redistribution saw the remainder of Kiama and part of Shellharbour transferred into Gilmore. The seat was a Liberal seat prior to the redistribution but is now a notionally Labor seat, due to strongly Labor-voting Shellharbour being added to the seat.

History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. Gash has held the seat ever since. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw the seat held by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007 before this margin was erased by the recent redistribution.

Candidates

  • Bohdan Brumersky (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Ben van der Wijngaart (Greens)
  • Elizabeth Cunningham (Family First)
  • Neil Reilly (Labor)
  • Joanna Gash (Liberal)
  • Annette Williams (Secular Party)
  • Don Keys (Liberal Democrats)

Political situation
Gilmore is now one of the most marginal seats in the country and the ALP will have a strong chance of winning the seat. However, the ALP’s margin is probably inflated by the lack of a recent contest in the northern parts of the seat previously in the very safe Labor seat of Throsby.

The ALP originally preselected former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle, but he withdrew in the face of opposition from local ALP members.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Joanna Gash LIB 40,513 50.39 -3.83
Neil Reilly ALP 30,386 37.79 +5.71
Ben van der Wijngaart GRN 6,070 7.55 +0.32
Bohdan Brumerskyj CDP 1,755 2.18 -1.71
Of The Above None IND 686 0.85 +0.85
Brett Greenhalgh FF 407 0.51 +0.51
Simon Blake CCE 370 0.46 +0.46
Kevin Ramsey LDP 151 0.19 +0.19
Warwick William Hunt CEC 59 0.07 -0.09
DEM 0 0.00 -0.09
ON 0 0.00 -2.16
OTH 0 0.00 -0.17

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Joanna Gash LIB 43,467 54.07 -5.34
Neil Reilly ALP 36,930 45.93 +5.34

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
I have divided the booths into five areas. Booths in the Shellharbour and Kiama LGAs have been counted together, and booths in Shoalhaven have been divided into three districts: one based around Ulladulla and Milton, another based on Nowra, Bomaderry and the northern parts of the LGA and the third covering the central parts of the council area, in particular those settlements around Jervis Bay. Bear in mind that the actual settlement known as ‘Jervis Bay’ is not part of New South Wales and is considered part of the ACT seat of Fraser for the sake of federal elections. Also bear in mind that most of the population of Shellharbour remains within the neighbouring seat of Throsby.

Polling booths in Gilmore. Shellharbour in green, Kiama in red, Nowra in blue, Jervis Bay in yellow and Ulladulla in purple.
Polling booths in Gilmore. Shellharbour in green, Kiama in red, Nowra in blue, Jervis Bay in yellow and Ulladulla in purple.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Nowra-Bomaderry 6.74 43.77 21,913 34.91
Jervis Bay 6.66 49.64 13,476 21.47
Kiama 12.28 52.41 10,467 16.67
Shellharbour 8.77 72.39 9,772 15.57
Milton-Ulladulla 10.49 49.90 7,150 11.39
Other votes 7.01 43.63 23,699
Polling booths in Gilmore.
Polling booths in Gilmore.
Polling booths in Gilmore near Jervis Bay, including Sussex Inlet and St Georges Basin.
Polling booths in Gilmore near Jervis Bay, including Sussex Inlet and St Georges Basin.
Polling booths in Gilmore, particularly around Nowra and Bomaderry.
Polling booths in Gilmore, particularly around Nowra and Bomaderry.
Polling booths in the northern parts of Gilmore, including Gerringong/Gerroa, Kiama and Shellharbour
Polling booths in the northern parts of Gilmore, including Gerringong/Gerroa, Kiama and Shellharbour

22 COMMENTS

  1. The redistribution has certainly made Gilmore a much more fun place to campaign in.

    Neill Reilly will definately run again- he declared that intent some time ago.

    Fully expect the CDP to run although there are rumours that young gun Bohdan and elected councillor on Shoalhaven is seeking to join the Liberal party as he has aspirations that cannot be fulfilled in CDP.

    If Ben van der Wijngaart is selected for the Greens it will be a very interesting race to watch- Ben is very well repected in the North of Gilmore and the greater Illawarra with his work on the Green Jobs Illawarra program.

  2. I love that a candidate called none of the above beat 4 actual political parties. No doubt Mr/s of the above’s platform made more sense than that of the CEC candidate.

  3. It was Mr None, I recall (pronounced to rhyme with bone). I remember Kevin Ramsey campaigning quite a bit last time, but it didn’t seem to get him anywhere.

    If the CDP run Paul Green, Shoalhaven mayor and lead Senate candidate in 2007, it could be interesting, although I suspect it would just end up helping Gash to hold on.

  5. In a story of interest from this region, the Liberals have preselected the young Deputy Mayor of Shoalhaven, Gareth Ward, as their candidate in the state seat of Kiama.

  7. David Boyle has won ALP preselection. He apparently has a Master degree – not bad for a Rugby League player.

  9. David Boyle [http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/news/local/news/general/david-boyle-to-quit-race-for-gilmore/1862264.aspx to withdraw] as Labor candidate.

  10. The Mercury claims that “Today’s shock move almost guarantees the re-election of sitting Liberal member Joanna Gash in the coming federal election.”

    Except not.

    Gilmore is notionally a very marginal Labor seat and Labor will now have a local candidate in an election likely still months off. I doubt very much that anyone at ALP HQ will be throwing in the towel for this fight.

  13. Note that the ABC has corrected the statement about “Neil Murray” to the aforementioned Neil Reilly.

  15. Is it only one eyed Labor supporters commenting on this forum.

    Too may people look at “the Party” these days rather than the candidate or the sitting member.

    Mrs Gash has done more for the region than any previous member (under the various electorate names) in the thirty years I have lived in the Shoalhaven.

    She has not always towed the Party line and that is what a member should be prepared to do. Their electorate should come first as that is what the member is there fore.

    Mrs Gillard rolled Mr Rudd just like Mr Keating rolled Mr Hawke. How can we be sure that Mr Swan or someone else won’t roll her?

    Good leadership equates to sound leadership equates to good government equates to a strong economy (not a massive deficit)

  17. Fred, you could say the very same about Abbott rolling Turnbull, rolling Nelson. Who’s to say that Turnbull wont destabalise and challenge again?

    And as for Ms Gash not towing the party line, I think her voting record would contradict that.

  18. Let’s see if I have this right

    The failed Kevin Rudd is brought back by the clique who threw him out
    to help the failing Julia Gillard sell the same policies that had Rudd
    thrown out in the first place.

    Now Gillard doesn’t want Rudd or Abbott to be Prime Minister, Abbott
    doesn’t want Gillard or Rudd to be Prime Minister, and of course Rudd
    doesn’t want anyone except himself, and particularly not Abbott or
    Gillard, to be Prime Minister, while Latham resents all those who
    became Prime Minister.

    Then we have Rudd losing his way and the answer is Gillard, then
    Gillard losses her way and the answer is ‘real’ Gillard, then ‘real’
    Gillard losses her way and the answer is again Rudd, then Rudd decides
    not to speak to the ‘fake’ Gillard so the answer is again ‘real’
    Gillard. If I assume that I’m a backroom boy in Sussex Street (God
    forbid!), which one should I exterminate next?

    Consider that with the half-hearted resurrection of Kevin Rudd they
    must be back to being a good government who had lost their way, …
    sorry, I mean, a bad government who have now found their way, … no,
    perhaps a government moving forward while going backward, or is that
    going backward while moving forward? And then again, if we now have
    the ‘real’ Julia, then it must be a fake Kevin, because it must have
    been the ‘real’ Kevin whose fault it was we got the ‘fake’ Julia. Or
    was it the ‘real’ Julia who knifed the ‘fake’ Kevin, then told us the
    real problem was a phony Tony??

    Last week we had Gillard wanting to talk to Rudd who would not talk to
    Gillard, and Latham who wanted to talk to Gillard who did not want to
    talk to Latham. Then Keating pooped up and said we should elect
    Gillard while Latham said vote for anyone but Gillard.

    The big questions, if Labor wins on Saturday, are-
    1: If Kevin wins the election for Julia, will she give him his old job
    back?
    2: if not, who will be our next Prime Minister- the ‘fake Gillard, the
    ‘real’ Gillard, a newly invented Gillard, the old Gillard of her
    Socialist Alliance days, or some other Gillard we’ve not yet been
    introduced to.?
    3: or none of the above, subject to a decision still to be taken by
    the backroom boys at Sussex Street?

    The only thing to do is ‘VOTE FOR GASH and the LIBERAL’

  19. Joanna Gash may not have toed the party line, but she has has towed the party line. She has towed it through state and local government issues so that she can’t be held accountable for inaction.

  20. Internal Labor polling says they will not get this and boat-people being a critical factor in this seat. Labor are expecting quite a strong swing to the Liberals. My info is that there is not too much effort by Labor here.

  22. I am a Labour voter and I agree with Nick C that Gash will just hold her seat. It seems to me that both parties are just as bad as each other. They spent more time in this election bagging each other than selling their policies to the voters.

Comments are closed.