ALP 21.5%
Incumbent MP
Nicola Roxon, since 1998.
Geography
Southwestern suburbs of Melbourne. Gellibrand covers most of the Maribyrnong and Hobsons Bay council areas. Suburbs include Altona, Seaholme, Williamstown, Newport, Spotswood, Kingsville, Yarraville, Seddon, Footscray, Tottenham, Braybrook and Maidstone.
History
Gellibrand was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It has always been won by the ALP.
Gellibrand was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s John Mullens, a former state MP for Footscray. Mullens was expelled from the ALP in 1955 and joined the ALP (Anti-Communist), which evolved into the Democratic Labor Party. He lost his seat at the 1955 election.
Hector McIvor defeated Mullens in 1955. He held the seat for the next seventeen years, retiring at the 1972 election.
Ralph Willis won Gellibrand in 1972. He joined the Labor frontbench after the 1975 election defeat. Willis served as Shadow Treasurer for most of the Fraser government, but was replaced by Paul Keating shortly before the 1983 election.
Willis served as a cabinet minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, and upon the election of Paul Keating as Prime Minister, he was appointed Treasurer. He served in that role until the 1996 election, and retired in 1998.
Gellibrand was won in 1998 by Nicola Roxon. Roxon was promoted to the shadow ministry in 2001 and was appointed Minister for Health in the Rudd government after the 2007 election.
Candidates
- Nicola Roxon (Labor)
- Rodney Solin (Greens)
- Tania Baptist (Socialist Equality Party)
- Ben Courtice (Socialist Alliance)
- Liz Mumby (Family First)
- David McConnell (Liberal)
Political situation
This is a very safe Labor seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nicola Roxon | ALP | 50,681 | 60.22 | +5.60 |
| Wayne Tseng | LIB | 19,220 | 22.84 | -8.73 |
| Robert Gibson | GRN | 7,898 | 9.38 | +0.30 |
| Dave O’Neil | IND | 1,950 | 2.32 | +2.32 |
| Mukesh Garg | FF | 1,700 | 2.02 | +0.18 |
| Ben Courtice | SA | 1,334 | 1.59 | +0.95 |
| Rachel Richards | DEM | 1,088 | 1.29 | -0.01 |
| Rodney Doel | CEC | 285 | 0.34 | +0.15 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nicola Roxon | ALP | 60,134 | 71.46 | +6.51 |
| Wayne Tseng | LIB | 24,022 | 28.54 | -6.51 |
Booth breakdown
Gellibrand covers almost all the territory of two council areas: Maribyrnong and Hobsons Bay. Booths in those two councils have been split to create four areas.
The ALP polls over 70% in western parts of Hobsons Bay and in Maribyrnong, with their lowest figures being 67% in Hobsons Bay East. The Greens poll highest in Maribyrnong South and Hobsons Bay East.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hobsons Bay West | 5.96 | 71.82 | 24,298 | 28.87 |
| Hobsons Bay East | 11.21 | 67.20 | 15,858 | 18.84 |
| Maribyrnong North | 8.92 | 74.70 | 14,053 | 16.70 |
| Maribyrnong South | 14.06 | 74.95 | 12,379 | 14.71 |
| Other votes | 9.55 | 69.73 | 17,568 | 20.88 |
My prediction: Labor retain. Solid margin already, but maybe a 1% swing to them.
Across the State seat of Footscray the Greens are now outpolling the Liberals in most booths. Former Maribyrnong Mayor, Janet Rice’s campaign is looking good as we head into the State election. I’d add it to my list of ‘ones to watch’.
What’s the story with the independent who did well in Footscray in 2006? Could she do a Wilkie?