Fraser – Election 2010

ALP 15.1%

 

Incumbent MP
Bob McMullan, since 1998. Previously Member for Canberra 1996-1998, Senator for the Australian Capital Territory 1988-96.

Geography
Fraser covers the northern suburbs of Canberra. The two ACT electorates are neatly divided along the Molonglo River and Lake Burley Griffin, with Fraser covering the key suburbs of Civic, Belconnen and Gungahlin. Fraser also covers the Jervis Bay Territory.

Demographics
Fraser is dominated by public servants, with 17% of the workforce being directly employed by government, along with another 6% of defence employees and 9% of school and tertiary education employees. Fraser is the second-largest seat in the country by population, behind Canberra. More than twice as many voters cast a vote in Fraser than in Northern Territory electorates.

History
The Australian Capital Territory first elected an MP from 1949 onwards, although this MP was only given full voting rights in 1968. Fraser was created in 1974 when the ACT gained a second seat, and the existing electorate was divided into Fraser and Canberra. The ACT gained a third electorate, Namadgi, at the 1996 election. Fraser was held by John Langmore from 1984 to 1996. Langmore resigned in late 1996 and was replaced by Steve Dargavel at a 1997 by-election. Dargavel’s parliamentary career was short-lived, with Namadgi being abolished at the 1998 election. Dargavel was defeated for preselection by Bob McMullan, then member for the neighbouring seat of Canberra. McMullan has held the seat ever since.

Candidates

Political situation
Fraser is a safe Labor electorate, with McMullan being safely elected at every election since 1998. He only fell below 50% of the primary vote in 2001, when he polled 47.2%. 2001 was also the ALP’s worst recent result on two-party-preferred, with McMullan polling 62.7%. Fraser includes the strongest Greens areas in the ACT, particularly around the Inner North. ACT Greens Parliamentary Convenor (effectively the leader), Meredith Hunter MLA, was the Greens candidate at the 2007 election. The House of Representatives vote of 13.4% underestimates Greens support, considering that the party polled 21.5% in the Senate in the ACT, compared to 13.1% in the House of Representatives.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob McMullan ALP 55,533 51.10 +0.50
Troy Williams LIB 33,936 31.23 -2.41
Meredith Hunter GRN 14,546 13.38 +2.12
Darren Churchill DEM 2,509 2.31 -0.27
Kerri Taranto IND 1,275 1.17 +1.17
Farida Iqbal SA 530 0.50 -1.42
Jim Arnold CEC 342 0.31 +0.31

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

 

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob McMullan ALP 70,715 65.07 +1.75
Troy Williams LIB 37,965 34.93 -1.75

Booth breakdown
The suburbs of Canberra divide clearly into three areas, with the western suburbs around Belconnen making up the largest proportion of the electorate, with smaller proportions in North Canberra (the ‘inner north’) and the newer settlement of Gungahlin in the far north of the Territory. Examining the two-party-preferred vote and Greens primary vote, North Canberra is clearly the most progressive, with Gungahlin being much more conservative. Even still, only two booths in the entire electorate gave a majority to the Liberals: Gungahlin, and Hall (which is classified as a ‘village’ separate from the three centres of the electorate, but I have grouped it with Gungahlin). Since there would be little revealed by colouring booths according to the 2CP winner, I have coloured them according to whether the ALP 2CP in the booth was above or below the seatwide total of 65.07%. This reveals that Labor’s vote was lowest all across Gungahlin, with most booths in Belconnen being in the 63-67% range.

Voter group  GRN %  ALP 2CP %  Total votes  % of votes 
Belconnen 12.13 66.25 45,292 41.62
North Canberra 18.16 71.74 21,769 20.03
Gungahlin 9.24 54.59 15,834 14.57
Other votes 14.09 63.79 25,785 23.73
Polling booths in Fraser. Pink booths were won by the ALP, with those coloured more darkly being won by larger margins. Gungahlin can be seen at the northern end, with Belconnen in the west and North Canberra in the south-east
Polling booths in Fraser. Pink booths were won by the ALP, with those coloured more darkly being won by larger margins. Gungahlin can be seen at the northern end, with Belconnen in the west and North Canberra in the south-east

6 COMMENTS

  1. , with Gungahlin being much more conservative

    It’s worth mentioning that the Liberal Candidate in 2007, Troy Williams, was from this part of the electorate and ran a secondary message “Let’s Elect A Gungahlin Resident” which may have had some effect, with swing or so to the Liberals in this booth which was against the trend.

  2. The Canberra Times lists the 8 nominees for the ALP preselection: Nick Martin, Christina Ryan, Jim Jones, George Williams, Chris Bourke, Mike Hettinger, Andrew Leigh and Michael Pilbrow.

  6. My prediction: As with Canberra, Labor to be forced to preferences, but probably a negligible 2PP swing.

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