Forde – Election 2010

ALP 3.4%

Incumbent MP
Brett Raguse, since 2007.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.

Redistribution
Forde contracted substantially following the 2007 election. Forde previously covered large rural areas to the south of Brisbane including Beaudesert and large parts of the Scenic Rim council area. The recent redistribution created the new seat of Wright, which took most of Forde’s rural areas, while Forde expanded into more of the urban parts of Logan City. The redisribution increased the ALP margin from 2.9% to 3.4%

History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.

Candidates

Political situation
The ALP gained a massive swing in 2007 and it would not be surprising if the ALP suffered a swing against them. The margin is still very low, and could be won by the LNP if there is any swing back to the Coalition.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brett Raguse ALP 34,721 44.35 +12.15
Wendy Creighton LIB 26,576 33.95 -19.14
Hajnal Ban NAT 9,550 12.20 +12.12
Andy Grodecki GRN 3,756 4.80 +0.73
Iona Abrahamson FF 1,756 2.24 -1.84
Rod Evans ON 671 0.86 -2.87
Chris Coyle IND 623 0.80 +0.80
Maaz Syed DEM 419 0.54 -0.79
Daniel Hope CEC 216 0.28 +0.05

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brett Raguse ALP 41,419 52.91 +14.43
Wendy Creighton LIB 36,869 47.09 -14.43

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
The vast majority of voters in Forde lie within Logan City. I have divided booths in Logan into four areas based on major suburbs, being Waterford, Beenleigh, Cornubia and Park Ridge. A small group of booths lie within Gold Coast council area, and these have been grouped as “Upper Coomera”.

Polling booths in Forde. Waterford in orange, Beenleigh in blue, Cornubia in red, Park Ridge in green, Upper Coomera in yellow.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Waterford 3.52 59.31 16,101 28.63
Beenleigh 4.02 56.39 13,794 24.53
Cornubia 4.91 46.54 9,512 16.92
Park Ridge 4.40 59.09 8,452 15.03
Upper Coomera 4.71 42.61 8,372 14.89
Other votes 5.70 51.42 13,837
Polling booths in Forde, showing results of the 2007 election.

13 COMMENTS

  2. I’m very happy with my current member of Parliament, Brett is always there to help me in my time of need.

  7. Derek Radke has been replaced by Melissa Raassina,journalism student and marketing consultant for an independent newspaper

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