Farrer – Election 2010

LIB 11.2%

Incumbent MP
Sussan Ley, since 2001.

Geography
Farrer covers a great expanse of southwestern NSW. The seat covers most of the NSW-Victorian border and covers the entirety of the NSW-South Australian border. It stretches from the Greater Hume area around Albury all the way along the Murray River, and then north to include Broken Hill and the largely unpopulated unincorporated area of far western NSW. Main towns include Albury, Broken Hill, Deniliquin and Corowa.

Redistribution
Farrer gained Central Darling Shire from Calare, apart from that the seat has remained consistent with the 2007 boundaries.

History
Farrer was created at the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. In its time it has always been held by conservative parties, primarily the Liberal Party, although it was held by the Nationals from 1984 until 2001.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate David Fairbairn. He was included in the Menzies ministry from 1962 until 1969, when he challenged John Gorton for the leadership and moved to the backbench. He returned to cabinet for one year in 1971 after William McMahon became Prime Minister, and retired from Parliament in 1975.

He was succeeded by Wal Fife, who had been a minister in the Liberal state government of New South Wales since 1967. Fife went on to serve as a minister in the Fraser government from 1977 until its defeat in 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume following the 1984 redistribution, which had moved Wagga Wagga from Farrer into Hume, and he retired in 1993.

The seat was won in a three-cornered contest in 1984 by Nationals state MP Tim Fischer, with the Liberal coming third. Fischer became leader of the National Party in 1990 after then-leader Charles Blunt lost his seat.

Fischer went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999, retiring at the 2001 election. Another three-cornered contest in 2001 saw the Liberal Party’s Sussan Ley win the seat back from the Nationals.

Ley served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Howard government, and holds the seat today.

Candidates

  • Mathew Crothers (Secular Party)
  • Peter Carruthers (Greens)
  • Jason Clancy (Independent)
  • Sussan Ley (Liberal) – Member for Farrer since 2001.
  • Christian Emmery (Labor)
  • Louise Burge (Independent)
  • Stephen Bingle (Democrats)
  • James Male (Christian Democratic Party)

Political situation
It’s safe to say that, as long as this seat is a two-horse race between Liberal and Labor, the Liberal Party will safely retain it.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sussan Ley LIB 49,794 57.73 +5.90
Chris Ryan ALP 28,238 32.74 +6.30
Darran Stonehouse GRN 4,169 4.83 +1.28
Rhonda Lever FF 2,657 3.08 +1.59
Douglas Henderson CCE 1,088 1.26 +1.26
Pat Mathers CEC 313 0.36 -0.15

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sussan Ley LIB 52,766 61.17 -5.46
Chris Ryan ALP 33,493 38.83 +5.46

Results do not take into account effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
I have divided Farrer into six areas. The major centres of Albury, Deniliquin and Broken Hill have been set aside, and the remainder of the seat divided into North-West, Central and East.

The Liberals won a majority in most areas, although the ALP polled over two-thirds of the vote in Broken Hill. Apart from Broken Hill, the lowest Liberal vote was in Albury, where they polled 59.5%. The Greens polled much higher in Albury than the rest of the seat. The Greens polled over 8% in Albury, and no more than 4% in the rest of the seat.

Polling booths in Albury in yellow, East in red, Central in purple, Deniliquin in blue, North-West in orange, Broken Hill in green.
Voter group GRN %

 LIB 2CP %

 Total votes % of ordinary votes
Albury 8.22 59.51 24,333 34.56
East 3.31 67.28 14,185 20.15
Central 2.06 73.77 11,437 16.25
Broken Hill 3.46 32.51 9,016 12.81
North-West 3.22 65.58 6,772 9.62
Deniliquin 2.32 68.56 4,657 6.62
Other votes 5.22 61.39 16,296
Results of the 2007 federal election in Farrer. Click to enlarge
Results of the 2007 federal election in eastern Farrer.
Results of the 2007 federal election in Albury.
Results of the 2007 federal election in Broken Hill.
Results of the 2007 federal election in Deniliquin.

5 COMMENTS

  1. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/tony-windsor-wont-reveal-who-hell-back-in-hung-parliament/story-fn59nqgy-1225904925344

    Louise Burge (she has a website here) gets the tick of approval by Tony Windsor (New England independent MP), as does John Clements in Parkes. They’ll be the ones to watch, by the looks of it. I doubt a rural independent will get close in Farrer, though… she might do well in the Riverina areas (she’s from Deniliquin), but it’ll be won or lost in Albury.

  2. Agreed. It’s just too big an electorate for an indi to have much of a shot. So many different and not really linked centres of population.

  4. A couple have come close at NSW state elections: Goulburn (margin: 1.3% in 2007) and Albury in 1999 (1.0% in 1999, 11.5% in 2003 against the same person). Those were electorates based on single towns / cities, though – NSW has 93 state seats as opposed to 48 federal seats, so there’s plenty more of them at state level.

    Another thing Antony Green points out about Farrer:

    Farrer covers 247,097 sq.km and is a strange mish-mash of an electorate, large parts of which obtain their daily news from Melbourne, while the western parts around Broken Hill run on Adelaide time and media.

    So that’s why an independent won’t win here… the parties contesting would need to have three separate advertising campaigns, and that’s some serious resources.

Comments are closed.