Dunkley – Election 2010

LIB 4.0%

Incumbent MP
Bruce Billson, since 1996.

Geography
South-Eastern Melbourne. Dunkley covers the majority of the City of Frankston and part of the Shire of Mornington Peninsula. Main suburbs include Frankston, Mornington, Langwarrin and Seaford.

History
Dunkley was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has almost always been a marginal electorate, and swung back and forth regularly in the 1980s, although the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat since 1996, although often by slim margins. The seat’s margin never passed 2% from 1984 to 1993, although since 1996 the Liberal margin has never fallen below 2%, suggesting the seat has become safer. Only once, in 2004, did the margin increase out of the under 6% marginal range.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Bob Chynoweth (ALP). Chynoweth had won Flinders at the 1983 election, defeating new MP Peter Reith, who had won a by-election for the seat four months earlier. Chynoweth moved to Dunkley following the redistribution.

He held the seat in 1987 before losing to Frank Ford (Lib) in 1990. Chynoweth won the seat back in 1993.

A redistribution before the 1996 election saw Dunkley become a notional Liberal seat, and Chynoweth was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. This boundary change could be partly responsible for the seat’s increased safety over the next decade.

Billson has held Dunkley ever since, having come closest to losing in 1998 when his margin was cut to 2.04%. Billson served as a Parliamentary Secretary from 2004 to 2006 and served as Minister for Veterans’ Affairs from 2006 until the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Billson’s margin was cut from 9.4% to 4.0% in 2007, and he has served as a member of the Opposition frontbench since the defeat of the Howard government.

Candidates

• Yasmin De Zilwa (Family First)
• Helen Constas (Labor)
• Simon Tiller (Greens)
• Bruce Billson (Liberal) – Member for Dunkley since 1996.

Political situation
While Dunkley has not shown a huge propensity to swing in recent years, it is one of a small number of marginal Liberal seats in Melbourne, and will likely garner a lot of interest from the ALP.

2007 result

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Dunkley have been divided into four groups. Those in Mornington Peninsula shire have been grouped as “Mornington”, while those in the City of Frankston have been split into three groups named after the key suburb in each area: Frankston, Langwarrin and Seaford.

The Liberal Party won large majorities across Mornington, winning over 60% of the vote across the area. In contrast, margins were much slimmer in Frankston and Langwarrin, and the ALP won a number of booths in these areas, and won a majority in Seaford (a smaller area than the other three groups of booths).