ALP 0.9%
Incumbent MP
Darren Cheeseman, since 2007.
Geography
Corangamite covers the fringe of Victoria’s urban area and rural areas on the coast to the west of Melbourne and Geelong. The seat covers Colac Otway, Golden Plains and Surf Coast local government areas, but a majority of the population lives in Greater Geelong local government area. The seat covers the suburbs of the Geelong urban area on the southwestern shore of the Barwon River (Belmont, Oberon, Grovedale and Highton) as well as most of Bellarine Peninsula, including Queenscliff.
Other major centres, outside of southern parts of Geelong, are the towns of Ocean Grove, Torquay, Colac and Bannockburn.
History
Corangamite was an original federation division, and a seat which changed hands often in early years, before becoming a solid conservative seat in the latter half of the 20th century.
It’s first member was Chester Manifold of the Protectionists, but he retired due to ill-health at the 1903 election and the seat was won by Grafton Wilson for the Free Traders. Wilson was defeated in 1910 by the ALP’s James Scullin, who held the seat for one term before being defeated by former member Manifold, who returned to contest the seat for the Liberals. Manifold, whose son, Sir Chester, was a state MP and a famed horse-breeder and racing administrator, held the seat until he died at sea in 1918.
The December 1918 by-election saw the first use of preferential voting for the federal parliament. Scullin returned to contest the seat for the ALP, and topped the primary vote, but was comfortably defeated on preferences by the Victorian Farmers Union’s William Gibson. Scullin would subsequently win the seat of Yarra in 1922 and serve as Prime Minister from 1929-32.
Gibson held the seat for the Country Party, serving as Postmaster-General and Minister for Works and Railways until his defeat in 1929 by Labor’s Richard Crouch, who had previously been a Protectionist/Liberal MP for Corio from 1901-1910. Crouch then lost to Gibson in 1931, who served one more term before winning election to the Senate in 1934.
Geoffrey Street of the UAP, who would serve as Defence Minister in Menzies’ first government, won Corangamite in 1934 and held it until his death, along with two other ministers, in a plane crash in 1940.
Allan McDonald, a former state MP, won the seat for the UAP in 1940, and quickly became a minister in the Menzies government. He unsuccessfully contested the UAP leadership in 1941 and 1943, and remained on the backbench when the Liberals returned to power in 1949. He died in 1953, and was succeeded by Daniel Mackinnon, who had previously been MP for Wannon.
Mackinnon retired in 1966, and was succeeded by Tony Street, son of the former member Geoffrey, who served as a minister in various portfolios in the Fraser government and subsequently retired in early 1984.
Stewart McArthur won the seat in 1984, and held it until defeated by the ALP’s Darren Cheeseman in 2007. A seat significantly impacted by changing demographics, McArthur’s 44.70% was the lowest primary vote for the conservative major party in the seat since 1934.
Candidates
- Mike Lawrence (Greens)
- Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
- Darren Cheeseman (Labor)
- Sally-Anne Brown (Independent)
- Ann Wojczuk (Family First)
- Nathan Timms (Liberal Democrats)
Political situation
Changing demographics have made this seat far more favourable for Labor in recent years. It was one of only three seats in Victoria in 2004 that recorded a swing to Labor (Kooyong and Melbourne being the other two), and Labor’s 2007 swing was also above the state average.
This trend would seem to favour Labor’s chances of retaining the seat, but on the other hand the Liberals’ choice of a high profile candidate should make this very interesting.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stewart McArthur | LIB | 40,408 | 44.70 | -7.35 |
| Darren Cheeseman | ALP | 37,886 | 41.91 | +5.16 |
| Fiona Nelson | GRN | 7,202 | 7.97 | +0.46 |
| Jan Edwards | FF | 3,217 | 3.56 | +0.82 |
| Gabrielle Killeen | DEM | 1,512 | 1.67 | +1.67 |
| Sukri Sabhlok | LDP | 169 | 0.19 | +0.19 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Darren Cheeseman | ALP | 45,968 | 50.85 | +6.17 |
| Stewart McArthur | LIB | 44,426 | 49.15 | -6.17 |
Booth breakdown
Four main local government areas make up this electorate. I have grouped the small population of Queenscliff together with Greater Geelong. Within the rural LGAs, a large proportion of the population lives in a few large towns with very few votes being cast in remote booths. A very large part of the electorate lives near Geelong.
The ALP won two-party-preferred majorities of a relatively small margin in Greater Geelong, Surf Coast and Golden Plains, while the Liberals polled almost 54% in Colac Otway. In this case, two thirds of Colac Otway’s votes were cast in four large booths in the immediate vicinity of the town of Colac, all of which the Liberal Party won with a margin of 51-57%. The Liberals also won 52.5% amongst other votes.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Greater Geelong | 7.09 | 52.06 | 40,876 | 45.22 |
| Surf Coast | 11.30 | 54.50 | 11,694 | 12.94 |
| Colac Otway | 6.66 | 45.88 | 10,844 | 12.00 |
| Golden Plains | 6.07 | 54.58 | 6,510 | 7.20 |
| Other votes | 9.11 | 47.81 | 20,470 | 22.65 |
It will be interesting to see how having a younger, high-profile candidate helps the Liberals here.
McArthur was about 70 years old, and was more representative of what the seat used to be (rural Western districts) rather than the younger, more urban Seachange beast it is now. If they’d had a different candidate, the Libs might well have held on in 2007.
I must admit I’m surprised Golden Plains has such a strong Labor vote. It’s a mostly rural shire with scattered small towns. I wonder where Labor gets its core vote from in that area?
Good point, a lot of that labor vote in the golden plains comes from people moving out of the northern suburbs in Geelong. Head to head Henderson should win easily, Cheeseman seems to be a laughing stock amongst his colleagues and local leaders in Geelong. He hasnt had many of his Minister mates visit the area in the last few months either.
Henderson is a strong candidate but this is mostly a mortgage belt electorate these days, and the Geelong by-pass is encouraging this trend, also the up market Geelong suburbs may not be enthused by Abbott. McArthur was old but he had some following in the rural parts of the seat. Will follow the national swing.
I saw this report the other day about Sarah Henderson’s call for the duplication of the Princes Highway between Winchelsea and Colac, and it sounds like Tony Abbott has found an interesting way to draw more attention to that debate.
Local media reports say Henderson made a strong impression in the first debate between her and Cheeseman.
Henderson has been working the local media well especially in Colac, whether this reflects her talent, Labor ineptitude or media bias is an open question.
Asked one of my tutorials if they had heard of Henderson, two had, one of whom was a committed Green/Labor voter and the other complained about being unable to escape from a conversation with her during O’week. Any publicity is good publicity?
Hi Ben,
The Greens are running Mike Lawrence in Corangamite.
Cheers
Lots of Sarah Henderson signs on the road to Colac, but the diary farmers all vote Liberal anyway.
There were 10% swings in Colac at the last election!
Indeed Labor did well in Colac last time but I don’t think farmers had much to do with it.
I am guessing forestry workers. Abit like some parts of northern Tassie.I dont know much except they have a timer mill.
http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/colac-mills-3m-fire-bill/459158.aspx
They can’t get local citizens to work in the timber mill only refugees it seems it has a bad reputation
I see. Maybe workchoices or anti globalization had an effect then. Im shocked but not surprised 😛
Bit of a game changer here with the LIberal candidate Sarah Henderson together with Tony Abbott announcing their commitment to the Princes Highway between Geelong and Colac.
http://sarahhenderson.com.au/2010/06/18/real-action-on-the-princes-highway/
Sarah Henderson has a good chance of winning this crucial seat, despite the Julia Gillard factor.
Sarah is a model candidate for the progressive wing of the Liberal Party. So much so that, for many conservatives, her column in the Herald-Sun has been confronting – at times pure Lyn Allison and Natasha Stott Despoja on issues such as feminism, Guantanamo and the US alliance.
She pops up often in the media and even used her outstanding communication skills, audacity and media contacts to lobby on the Good Friday Appeal – and she got away with it brilliantly !
She would do well in any small-l Government. But how will progresives vote in Corangamite, with the prospect of an Abbott Government, and how will she be preferenced from the left and the right ? İf ever the Democrats, for instance (1.7% in 2007) were to support a Liberal candidate rather than the split ticket surely it would be in favour of Sarah Henderson. And what about the DLP and Family First ?
Sarah was a respected ABC journalist when her mother was a highly regarded Liberal Party State MP for Geelong who sadly died soon after losing her seat – by 17 votes, as İ recall.
İ do not know much about Darren Cheeseman (which says something in itself) but from what İ do know İ am unconvinced that he has the ability of Sarah Henderson. But the Liberal Party leadership may well decide the result.
Lots of Sarah H billboards on the road to Colac flogging the duplication..but the Morgan Poll had Labor well ahead here.
Every election in northern NSW sees candidates trying to outdo each other on how much money they can throw at the Pacific Highway, but I can’t think of any instance where it could be said that it has had much impact on the election result.
Henderson is a stronger candidate than Cheeseman but I think Cheeseman will win. The demographic drift to ALP in Corangamite will have continued to over the last 3 years. More development in southern Geelong suburbs, more sea-changers, less farmers. I suspect this electorate will be safeish ALP in a few elections time.
With 50000 new residents planned for the Armstrong Creek development in the electorate Colac will have to removed and this should make a safer Labor seat.
Sarah H’s latest ad has securing our borders as her no. 1 priority
With betting markets now open on individual seats, Sportingbet have Cheeseman a $1.75 favourite, with Henderson at $2.05.
Poll in the Geelong Advertiser today:
227 respondents
60% prefer Gillard as PM
40.5% Labor
38.3% Liberal
10% Green
10% other
Consistent with the Morgan poll.
A very small sample, but that would point to a pretty solid Labor hold.
Seems strange that Henderson would make “securing our borders” her number 1 priority. A message from the last federal election (eg. Georgio in Kooyong and Broadbent in McMillan) was that Victorian voters prefer “small L” Liberals. I thought she would emphasise her “small L” Liberal views.
I expect Victoria to be a very strong state for ALP. My prediction:
– hold Corangamite and Deakin
– lose Melbourne to the Greens
– Gain Latrobe and McEwen
– Aston, McMillan and Dunkley will very close.
Let’s see how my predictions play out.
This seat used to be reliable for the liberals but with population changes it has spilled into Geelong……. Labor likely to retain maybe increased majority
It is a marginal seat which will go with the flow
My understanding is this seat is running 53-47 Cheeseman’s way
‘Darren Cheeseman delivering the Geelong Ring Road’ was the banner with pics of Darren & Julia this morning on Rossack Drive 50 m to the start of the road.
And on the other side of the road ‘standing up for school upgrades’
The Liberals and Sarah Hendeson seem the most organised in Corangamite….
Political scientist Nick Economou blasted Labor in the Geelong Advertiser, saying the campaign in Corangamite was either showing “amazing complacency or incredible incompetence” by not having party leader Julia Gillard visit yet. “Darren Cheeseman is being left as the Lone Ranger. Either Labor is arrogant and thinks it can win it or complacent and not looking after the seat.”
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/08/05/197761_news.html
The Geelong Football Club has thrown it’s support behind the Liberal Party due to its commitment to revamp Skilled Stadium (Geelong Football Club’s home ground). All Geelong members received a joint news release from the Liberal Party and the football club endorsing the plan under the heading “Real Action is kicking goals for Geelong”.
For those from a non-AFL state, this is a major intervention. The football club has around 40,000 members and is incredibly popular in the area. They are the reigning premiers. The majority of Corangamite voters are Geelong supporters.
Kind of ironic since Skilled Stadium is across the river in Corio.
But yeah you certainly can’t go wrong in Geelong by being seen to stick up for the Cats.
I actually thought Labor were certainties here until I read this. Perhaps it will be closer that one thinks. If Labor lose majority support in the Geelong area, they won’t win the seat.
Bad blood however in the Liberal camp as Sarah H’s factional opponents bit back:
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/06/19/183931_news.html
Henderson and her camp are a disgrace for pledging $36m into the Geelong Football Club for stadium “upgrades” – i didn’t realise all the hospitals and doctors clinics in the area didn’t need anymore funding. Just another example of the Liberals looking after the big end of town.
Roll on another 3 more “Cheese Years”
Andrew – yeah terrible isn’t it! Just as well there is no prk-barrelling going on by the ALP. I thought I read that somewhere?
So Andrew you forgot about the commitments already made to Colac Hospital, CCTV cameras, Geelong Library and the Rokewood Community Hub? Plus the announcment made today for a new technical centre in Colac? So when you say “i didnt realise all the hospitals and doctors clinics in the area didnt need anymore funding” just shows how much of an out of towner you are!!
now Bobby, not a bad attempt for a Liberal, however when your family needs urgent medical care down in the back blocks of Geelong and you can’t get any, at least you’ll be able to comfort yourself in the fact that you can have an overpriced cup of coffee at the new complex in Geelong, while getting watched on CCTV while reading a book from the new library.
Keep the Cheese years coming.
Well Andrew – you must be a bit worried based on the internal ALP polling on the weekend hey? Not going the way of the other seats in VIC is it?
Told the independent and ex-Green candidate was rung by Liberal frontbenchers this week seeking a preference deal.
And was one forthcoming?
My prediction: Labor retain, negligible swing.
Great to see ‘The Cheese’ returned
I notice that the libs have the higher primary vote over labor by thousands yet with preferences this could go to labor. It is our odd system that a party with the lower primary votes could have power.
Nothing odd about that – it is a matter of what the preferences are of the people voting first for the smaller parties when they don’t get their first preference up.
Henderson actually has lost ground today by 29 votes. I’d suggest it will be hard going now – 1218 behind.
Nick C: spot on
Now the most marginal seat in the country held by 0.4%. A 0.5% swing to the coalition.
A local National claims the Colaition would have won if the Nats ran a candidate – doubtful. Swing was in the rural parts of the seat swing to Labor in the Geelong booths despite so many promises from Sarah H. Still Labor has a very uphill task next time with the new boundaries but after the last year in politics anything is possible!